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Second Covid Wave in Europe, Rest of the World still Unaffected


Second Covid Wave in Europe

The second wave of the Coronavirus is currently raging in Europe. 

The attached image shows the number of newly infected people in European countries on a linear scale. In particular in the Czech republic, but also in Switzerland, France or Spain, one can see a tendency towards exponential growth.


New cases in Europe

New cases in Europe

- Click to enlarge

Multiplier between Newly Infected and Newly  Recovered

Many people quickly recover after having contracted Coronavirus, they are not infectious any more after about 10 days. Therefore one must compare the number of newly infected people with the number of recovered people. This gives a delta.


Unfortunately some countries like the UK or Spain do not publish the number of newly recovered.

The numbers released on Tuesday and the last weekend (released on Monday) show that new cases of Coronavirus are at least twice as high as the number of people that newly recovered.

This multiplier goes up to 20x in the case of France and it is even higher in Belgium.

The higher the multiplier is, the higher is the tendency to exponential growth.


The Swiss Covid Delta New Case Multiplier is currently between 2.5 and 3. This is a figure, which may lead to doubling the infection rate every 5-7 days. One would call this exponential growth.



October 21 Europe Covid

October 21 Europe Covid

- Click to enlarge

Rest of the world not affected yet

The rest of the world, however, is not affected yet.

Countries of the southern hemisphere like Brazil, South Africa, Argentina or Peru were Corona hotspots during their winter time, between June and August. They now have a multiplier smaller than 1; this means that more people recover from Covid19 than contract the virus. These countries are now getting into their summer time and most probably will not be the hotspots anymore.

This currently also applies to India or Mexico, that have a pretty warm climate.

The United States is the country might be most vulnerable to a second wave, given its colder temperature in the winter. The Covid19 daily multiplier is now around 1.3x per day.




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George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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