Tag Archive: Featured

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Reserve Bank of India will introduce a new monetary policy tool. Moody’s raised the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive. Fitch cut Saudi Arabia’s rating a notch to A+. Moody’s cut the outlook on Turkey’s Ba1 rating from stable to...

Gold ETFs or Physical Gold? Dangers In Exchange Traded Funds

Considering the public’s waning trust in the banking system, many investors find themselves wondering how GLD stacks up to owning the real thing. When you look at both assets more closely, it’s clear that gold ETFs and gold bullion are very different...

TIC Analysis of Selling

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US...

Durable Goods After Leap Year

New orders for durable goods (not including transportation orders) were up 1% year-over-year in February. That is less than the (revised) 4.4% growth in January, but as with all comparisons of February 2017 to February 2016 there will be some...

Renters Now Rule Half of U.S. Cities

The American Dream increasingly involves a lease, not a mortgage. Detroit was once known as a city where a working-class family could afford to own a home. Now it’s a city of renters. Just 49 percent of Motor City households were homeowners in 2015,...

March to Default

“May you live in interesting times,” says the ancient Chinese curse. No doubt about it, we live in interesting times. Hardly a day goes by that we’re not aghast and astounded by a series of grotesque caricatures of the world as at devolves towards...

The Inverse of Keynes

With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season. It may seem incredulous to categorize the quarter that way given that EPS growth (as reported) was +29%, but even...

SNB Spent $68 Billion On Currency Manipulation In 2016

While Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with China for manipulating its currency, he appears to have recently figured out that over the past 2 years Beijing has been spending hundreds of billions in dollar to strengthen, not weaken,...

FX Daily, March 24: Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend

The US dollar has been stabilizing over the past couple of sessions. This broad stability of the dollar is impressive because of the questions of the prospects of US President Trump's economic agenda. Expectations for tax reform and infrastructure...

The real reason Swiss drugs are so expensive

In Switzerland, a 16-pack of 500mg Dafalgan Odis (Paracetamol) costs CHF 8.60. A comparable French product, Doliprane, costs 1.12 euros for a box of 12 tablets the same size. 12 tablets of 500 mg of Algifor (Ibuprofen) costs CHF 9.90 compared to 2.50...

Results of the new pensions statistics 2015: Large differences between genders and age groups in pillar 2 and 3a old-age benefits

In 2015 approximately 33,000 persons obtained an old-age pension for the first time from the occupational pension fund (2nd pillar), while some 41,000 persons received a lump-sum withdrawal from their 2nd pillar retirement savings. Men received far...

Vollgeld? Geht schon!

Der Bundesrat, Economiesuisse und die die Schweizerische Nationalbank haben die Vollgeldinitiative salopp (oder populistisch?) als Hochrisikoexperiment zur Ablehnung empfohlen. In ihrer Überheblichkeit gehen sie davon aus, dass dies auch so geschehen...

The Deep State’s Dominant Narratives and Authority Are Crumbling

This is why the Deep State is fracturing: its narratives no longer align with the evidence. As this chart from Google Trends illustrates, interest in the Deep State has increased dramatically in 2017. The term/topic has clearly moved from the...

2016 Annual Report of the Swiss National Bank

The Swiss National Bank carried out foreign exchange interventions totaling 67.1B Swiss francs in 2016 in order to counter "an undesired tightening of monetary conditions," the central bank disclosed in its annual report. That was down from 86.1B...

The Swiss Franc: The World’s Most Perplexing Currency?

Swiss policymakers consider their domestic currency (the franc, or CHF) to be significantly overvalued. Measures taken by the Swiss National Bank seem to corroborate this stance, holding its nominal overnight rates well into negative territory....

FX Daily, March 23: Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies. The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. The down draft in the dollar appears part of...

Non-Randomly Surveying RMB

China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it. Its specific actions should never...

Economics Through The Economics of Oil

The last time oil inventory grew at anywhere close to this pace was during each of the last two selloffs, the first in late 2014/early 2015 and the second following about a year after. Those events were relatively easy to explain in terms of both price...

New calculation of SNB exchange rate indices

Change to a more comprehensive and up-to-date methodology. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is putting the Swiss franc exchange rate indices it calculates and publishes on a new footing. The adjustment allows the Swiss economy’s competitive and trading...
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