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UBS’s Consumption Indicator 1.46 Contradicts UBS’s Swiss GDP Forecast

UPDATE, February 2014

According to the latest data from the SECO,Swiss GDP rose by 2% in 2014 and not by 0.9% as the UBS predicted.
Once again the Swiss economy seems to be stronger than expected. UBS’s consumption indicator for April came out at 1.46 (details).

Consumption Indicator UBS March 2013

This number seems at odds with the weak private consumption in UBS’s Swiss economic forecast, that predicted Swiss private consumption to rise only by 0.9% against 2.8% in 2012.
Furthermore, the Swiss continue to create jobs: employment has risen by 2% in Q1/2013, 2.8% against the previous quarter. 4.15 Million employees from 4.10 Million last month, 4.04 Million a year ago (source).

Despite these two strong figures, the consensus forecast of Swiss GDP is only 0.2% in Q1/2013.


UBS Swiss economic forecasts (March 2013)
% change yoy in real terms Forecasts UBS
Level* 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
Gross Domestic Product 593.0 2.2 -1.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.3
Private consumption 343.5 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.5 0.9 1.2
Government spending 66.7 -2.5 3.3 0.7 2.0 0.7 1.8 0.3
Capital spending 118.6 0.7 -8.0 4.8 4.0 0.1 2.0 3.1
    Construction 53.1 0.0 3.0 3.5 2.4 -3.2 2.1 2.0
    Equipment 65.5 1.1 -15.5 5.8 5.2 2.8 1.1 3.7
Exports 303.3 2.9 -7.7 7.8 3.8 1.1 2.8 5.1
Imports 242.5 -0.3 -5.2 7.4 4.2 2.3 3.2 5.6
Inflation 2.4 -0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.6 0.0 0.8
Unemployment rate 2.6 3.7 3.9 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.4

Source UBS

George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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