2021-02-03

Equities have charged higher, and the greenback is mostly firmer.  News that Draghi may become Italy’s next Prime Minister has boosted Italian bonds.  The PBOC unexpectedly drained liquidity, and this may have deterred buying of Chinese stocks, a notable exception in the regional rally.

2021-01-14

Overview:  The capital markets are becalmed today. There does not appear to be much reaction to the news that the House of Representatives impeached President Trump an unprecedented second time with greater bipartisan support than previously (10 GOP voted with the Democratic majority). 

2021-01-06

In mid-December 2019, before the world had heard of COVID, China’s Central Economic Work Conference had released a rather startling statement for the world to consume. In the West, everything was said to be on the up. Central banks had responded, forcefully, many claimed, more than enough to deal with that year’s “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn.

2020-12-19

There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend).

2020-10-26

The surging virus ravaging large parts of Europe and the United States is fanning concerns over the economic implications as new social restrictions and curfews are announced in several countries. US additional fiscal support remains elusive as aid for states and local governments remains a bone of contention. 

2020-10-09

Overview:  The on-again-off-again fiscal stimulus in the US is back on as the White House now supports a broad stimulus program, but not as big as the Democrats $2.2 trillion package.  It is the narrative being cited as the rebuilding of risk appetites is the wobble earlier in the week.