Tag Archive: recession

Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements

2026-10-05

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2026-10-05

The sequence of return risk is the quiet reason two retirees with identical average returns can end up in very different places. Let’s start with an easy example. Two people retire on the same day with the same million dollars. They have the same portfolio and the same 30-year average return. They should both live … Continue...

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Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy

2026-09-28

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2026-09-28

The headlines have never sounded scarier, and the market keeps setting records, which is exactly why investor optimism wins over a full cycle, and why your own behavior is the real risk. Hope is not an investment strategy. Every advisor has said some version of that line, and it holds up. You cannot pray for … Continue...

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Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back

2026-09-21

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2026-09-21

Consensus earnings estimates now sit close to 50% above trend, and that gap is exactly where an earnings mean reversion tends to begin. This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting …

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Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5)

2026-09-14

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2026-09-14

"How To Win The Long Game" is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management. Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Over the first four …

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Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)

2026-09-07

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2026-09-07

"Investing Myths Dismantled" is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 3 of this series, linked above, ended with a simple question. If the math so plainly says …

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Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)

2026-08-31

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2026-08-31

"Math of Loss" is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology The first two articles in this series were about behavior. How to think like an investor instead of a speculator, and how to keep your own …

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Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)

2026-08-24

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2026-08-24

"Investor Psychology" is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face is the one you cannot fire, mute, or unfollow, because it is "You." You can … Continue...

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Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)

2026-08-17

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2026-08-17

"Think Like An Investor" is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." There is a chart that lands in your feed every few months. It plots a single dollar dropped into the stock market a century ago, which has grown into a small fortune. The caption never … Continue reading...

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Earnings Drive Both Bull & Bear Markets

2026-08-10

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2026-08-10

"Earnings drive market outcomes. In 151 years, every single 20% market decline was accompanied by a double-digit earnings decline, with zero exceptions." Every few months, a new reason to sell arrives. Capital spending is too high. The deficit is unsustainable. Oil just broke out. The conclusion attached to each is always the same: investors are …

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Bonds In Your Portfolio: Why Ditching Them Is The Wrong Move

2026-08-03

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2026-08-03

Lately, it seems like you can't open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is everywhere: bonds are broken, the old rules no longer apply, and investors should modernize by swapping the bonds in their portfolio for Bitcoin, gold, or whatever alternative the asset management industry is …

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Are US Treasuries Still A Safe Asset?

2026-07-27

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2026-07-27

Every time interest rates rise, the "bond bears" flood the media with commentary suggesting US Treasuries are no longer a "safe asset." The 30-year Treasury bond closed last Thursday at 5.17%. Meanwhile, the 10-year touched 4.71%, its highest print since January 2025, while Brent crude pushed above $100 as the Iran conflict escalated. Add a …

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Why Retail Traders Consistently Underperform Over Time

2026-07-20

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2026-07-20

Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never been more inviting. The losses have never been more documented. Here are some key statistics we […] The post Why Retail Traders Consistently Underperform Over Time appeared first on RIA.

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Spotting Market Bubbles: Why History Says It’s Nearly Impossible

2026-07-13

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2026-07-13

If you knew you were standing inside a stock market bubble, you wouldn't be standing in it for long. You'd sell. So would I, and so would everyone reading this. And if spotting market bubbles was something everyone could do in real time, the bubble couldn't form in the first place. That paradox is why … Continue...

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Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors

2026-07-06

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2026-07-06

Margin debt just set another record. In May 2026, investors owed their brokers a combined $1.42 trillion, the highest in history and a 53.7% jump from the prior year.1 Every time this number prints a new high, the same charts circulate: margin debt against GDP, against M2, against the total value of the market. They look authoritative. …

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Record Retail Inflows: Where Is All The Money Coming From?

2026-06-29

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2026-06-29

A couple of weeks ago, I showed Adam Taggart the following chart of record retail levels of household cash as a percentage of total financial assets. This chart is hard to square with the financial media narratives. For example, two stories ran side by side this month, and on the surface, they cannot both be … Continue reading...

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The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed

2026-06-22

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2026-06-22

Here's the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every …

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Corrections vs. Bear Markets: Why 20% Declines Are Obsolete

2026-05-25

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2026-05-25

After three decades of watching market cycles play out from both sides of the trade, I've come to a simple conclusion: Wall Street's love of simple rules is one of the most dangerous aspects of investing. When stocks fall 10%, it's just a "correction." However, if they decline 20%, it's a "bear market." Simple, clean, …

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Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines

2026-05-18

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2026-05-18

$397 billion. That's how much "Buffett cash" now sits on Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet after Greg Abel's first quarter as CEO. Warren Buffett left $373 billion behind when he stepped down at the end of 2025. Three months later, after Abel's debut earnings report on Saturday, the hoard had grown by another $24 billion. The figure …

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Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already

2026-05-11

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2026-05-11

The parabolic semiconductor rally crossed a line this week. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, closed Friday at $509.77 after touching a fresh intraday high of $511.68. That's a gain of roughly 244% from the April 2025 low of $148.31. Most of that move has been compressed into the last two months alone. Since mid-March, SOXX …

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Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky

2026-05-04

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2026-05-04

Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won't end. Market correction risk is stacking up. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is …

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