Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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July 2026 Monthly

2026-06-27

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2026-06-27

Markets enter July with a ceasefire that nobody quite trusts. The 60-day de-escalation between Washington and Tehran has done its job on paper, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased markedly. Oil has responded accordingly, with August WTI down more than 30% from its May18 peak of over $100 a barrel. It reached around … Continue reading...

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Oil Resumes Decline, Tech Shares Extend Slump, Greenback Trades Heavier

2026-06-26

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2026-06-26

There have been two key developments this week and they are both evident today. The first is the continued pullback in oil prices. August WTI is off almost 9% this week, after dropping as much last week and 5.25% the week before. It is near $69 compared with slightly below $66 before the war began. …

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Dollar Consolidates, Oil Slips Lower, Equities Helped by Micron Earnings

2026-06-25

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2026-06-25

The strong dollar advance seen in recent days is consolidating today. The G10 currencies are trading in narrow ranges. Most of them are +/- 0.1%. The New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone are off a little more. The Canadian dollar is threatening to extend its losing streak for the 11th consecutive session. The greenback crept …

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Dollar Extends Gains Without Support of Higher Rates

2026-06-24

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2026-06-24

The US dollar’s rally is extending today, but the market remains cautious about intervention by Japanese officials. The Dollar Index has not fallen since last Tuesday. It has risen by a little more than 2% since the Fed delivered its hawkish hold last week. Yet, for the second consecutive session, the dollar is rising without …

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Stocks Slide, Tech Hit, Greenback Trades Higher but Market Turns more Cautious on Yen

2026-06-23

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2026-06-23

The markets have weathered the US tariffs and war in the Middle East. A new disruption has emerged—unwinding tech investment--. The S&P and Nasdaq are poised gap lower and the South Korea’s Kospi dropped 10% today (and is still up nearly 95% for the year). The risk-off has pushed yields lower and the dollar higher. The …

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Sterling Proves Resilient as Starmer says Good Bye

2026-06-22

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2026-06-22

Conflicting news from the Middle East initially lifted oil prices and weighed om risk-taking appetites, but US-Iran negotiations continue and both sides report progress. Oil prices have come back off. The dollar is mostly firmer but so far has held above last week’s lows against the euro and sterling. The yen snapped a five-day slide …

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Video: Last Week’s Echo to Reverberate

2026-06-20

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2026-06-20

Here is a few minute video  where I try to sketch out the significant developments last week, including the Fed's hawkish hold, BOJ rate hike, and the by-election in the UK, whose effects may not have run their course yet.  That said, the Fed's hawkish hold will likely to persist, and the El Nino weather pattern …

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Week Ahead: Digesting Last Week’s Evolving Developments

2026-06-20

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2026-06-20

Last week was momentous. There was a fragile 60-day de-escalation during negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, the allies of both (Hezbollah and Israel) continue to clash, stalling talks. Still, oil prices tumbled 7-9%. At the same time, a new era at the Federal Reserve has begun. The new chair eschews forward guidance, and this was …

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Dollar Glows After the Fed’s Hawkish Hold

2026-06-18

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2026-06-18

The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold yesterday. The jump in US rates spurred a strong dollar advance that has been extended a little today. The new Fed chair received mostly high marks and dealt a blow to those narratives that saw him as beholden to the president’s wishes. He repeatedly underscored his and the …

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New Era at the Federal Reserve

2026-06-17

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2026-06-17

Subdued activity mostly characterizes the capital markets today, ahead of the sessions highlight, the outcome of the FOMC meeting that Kevin Warsh will chair for the first time. Given his criticisms of the central bank and his past comments, it is possible he does not participate in the Summary of Economic Projections. At the press …

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The Dollar Holds above JPY160 after BOJ Hikes, Aussie is Firmer after RBA Stands Pat

2026-06-16

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2026-06-16

Investors are still in the dark over the precise details of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, but they apparently are sufficiently comfortable to take July WTI to a new two-month low, with August Brent at three-month lows.  Softer oil prices are helping ease interest rates, and peripheral European benchmark 10-year yields …

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Investors Don’t Wait for Details to Celebrate US-Iran Agreement

2026-06-15

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2026-06-15

The prospect of a deal between the US and Iran has bolstered risk-taking appetites today, even though the details are the agreement are not clear and Washington and Tehran seem to have different interpretations of what has been agreed.  Brent and WTI are near two-month lows. Stocks and bonds have rallied. The dollar has been …

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Week Ahead: 7 G10 Central Banks Meet, Only BOJ to Hike, Warsh Chairs First FOMC meeting, G7 Summit, and Possible US-Iran Agreement

2026-06-13

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2026-06-13

The week ahead is important. Seven G10 central banks meet. Even though Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hospitalized and will not attend the central bank meeting, it is only central bank expected to hike. Still, the FOMC meeting is historic, even though there is practically no chance of a change in policy. Kevin …

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Week Ahead: Surging Greenback on Robust Jobs Data, while ECB Hike Seen as a Done Deal

2026-06-06

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2026-06-06

(No commentary this week. Analysis returns on June 13 with the next weekly. Good luck, and thank you for your patience.)The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt flows from the region and helps shape risk appetites. After falling by almost 14% in the last two weeks of May, July WTI rose about 4.5% …

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New Fed may Sap Market’s Reaction Function to US Jobs Report

2026-06-05

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2026-06-05

The low-intensity war in the Middle East continues. Crude oil looks set to close the week higher for the first time in three weeks. Meanwhile, some poor earnings have hit the tech sector this week and it is evident in both Asia and the US. A dramatic revision to Ireland’s Q1 growth spurred a downward …

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Softer Oil, Softer Greenback

2026-06-04

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2026-06-04

A new ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon raises hopes of a breakthrough in US-Iran talks where a low intensity conflict has been waged under the flag of a ceasefire. The Israel-Lebanon deal reportedly does not include Hezbollah, underscoring the fragility and limits of the ceasefire claims. July WTI is near the middle of the $94-$96 …

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War and New Tariff Threat Strengthen the Dollar

2026-06-03

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2026-06-03

While what has been dubbed China Shock 2.0 as the Chinese model moves into higher value-added goods is important, the most immediate challenge facing investors is the double shock from the US in the form or tariffs and war. And both are impacting the capital markets today. More clashes between the US and Iran have …

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Market Continues to Tempt Japanese Intervention, while PBOC Signals Gradual Yuan Appreciation

2026-06-02

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2026-06-02

The capital markets remain hopefully that the US and Iran will reach an agreement. Oil is a little softer and bond yields are lower. However, in Polymarket, the odds that the Strait of Hormuz is open by the end of the month is at around 22%, down from around 35% last week. The odds it …

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Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar

2026-05-23

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2026-05-23

The resilience of the US economy is remarkable. The economy bounced back from near stagnation in Q4 25 (0.5% annualized pace) to 2% in Q1 26 and, and perhaps to 4.3% this quarter, if the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker is accurate. Wall Street economists are less sanguine and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey from …

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Stocks and Bonds Rally Despite the Apparent Lack of Progress in the Middle East

2026-05-22

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2026-05-22

The dollar’s losses in the North American afternoon yesterday have been unwound as hopes that a framework for negotiations between the US and Iran have faded again. A drone strike on the UAE, ostensibly from Iranian proxies in Iraq, has helped lift oil prices and the greenback. Yet, stocks and bonds are higher. Still, ahead …

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