Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The day after. The Fed Chair sent the USD higher yesterday. What are the charts saying?

2023-03-08

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In this trading update, we analyze the recent moves in the USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD in early US trading. The USDJPY tests a key corrective level, while the EURUSD and GBPUSD show modest moves to the upside but remain below key targets. Meanwhile, the USDCAD keeps its gains as the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged.

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Powell Sends the Two-Year Yield above 5% and Ignites Powerful Dollar Rally

2023-03-08

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2023-03-08

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments to the Senate Banking Committee were seen as hawkish by the market, even though it has been clear to most observers that the 5.10% median terminal rate that the Fed projected in December would be increased. Also, it seemed well appreciated a few Fed officials support a 50 bp hike at the February 1 FOMC meeting, two days before a "hot" jobs report that showed over 500k jobs were filled. It...

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While the focus was on Powell Tuesday there were also remarks from the ECB and SNB

2023-03-08

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2023-03-08

Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan threatened FX intervention! A couple of posts from Tuesday ICYMI while Powell was hogging the spotlight: ECB Knot: ECB can be expected to keep raising rates for quite some time after March ECB can be expected to keep raising rates for quite some time after March And, SNB Chairman: We cannot rule out that we will have to tighten monetary policy again We can use interest rates but also sell foreign...

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As the market awaits the Fed Chair Testimony, the technical levels are being defined.

2023-03-07

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The markets are on edge as they wait for the Fed Powell testimony, and in this report, we analyze the key risk and buy levels for major currency pairs, including the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD (post RBA rate hike). Stay ahead of the curve and watch the video for valuable insights.

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US Dollar is Better Bid Ahead of Powell, while Aussie Sells Off on Dovish Hike by the RBA

2023-03-07

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2023-03-07

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against nearly all the G10 currencies ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress. Speaking for the Federal Reserve, the Chair is likely to stay on message which is higher rates are necessary to cool the overheating economy. This comes on the heels of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 25 bp hike and indication that it is not pre-committing to an April hike. The...

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S&P 500 technical analysis, 7th March 2023

2023-03-07

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In this video, we discuss the current market situation and the impact of Powell's upcoming speech on price action. The price is still above the bull channel but may retest it during a choppy period. We provide our technical analysis and trading insights to help you stay ahead of the market. Don't miss out on the latest updates and visit ForexLive.com for additional views. There may be possible updates on...

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Nasdaq futures technical analysis 7th March, 2023

2023-03-07

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Yesterday's failed breakout is still lingering as the market waits for more information from Powell later this week. Watch for a possible breakout up, but also be cautious of bears taking control if two consecutive 4-hour candles close below 12233. Learn more about the technical analysis of the NASDAQ and S&P 500 in this video and visit ForexLive.com for additional views and updates. There may be possible updates on:...

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Yields Pull Back to Start the New Week

2023-03-06

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2023-03-06

Overview: The modest economic goals announced as China's National People's Congress starts was seen as a cautionary sign after growth disappointed last year. It seemed to weigh on Chinese stocks, though others large bourses in the region advanced, led by Japan's Nikkei and South Korea with gains of more than 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed after rising for the past two sessions. US index futures are slightly softer. Strong gains were seen...

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Keep It SIMPLE

2023-03-06

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A threat to your trading is to not being simple enough. . We are all tempted to think that the more we know, the more we learn and apply will lead to more and more success. In some things in life, that works, but there is also the law of diminishing returns which can not only slow your progress toward success, but also reverse gains. Trading is one of those things where if you add too many units of knowledge, you can see a reversal of your...

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US Jobs, Kuroda’s Last BOJ Meeting, and Powell’s Congressional Testimony Highlight the Week Ahead

2023-03-04

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2023-03-04

The dollar peaked last September/October and trended lower until the January jobs report and strong service ISM on February 3. These reports and firm inflation readings, owing, at least in part, to benchmark and methodological changes, helped spur the greenback's recovery. However, we learned last week that auto sales and the service ISM prices paid decelerated in February, and this week, we will learn that job growth has slowed considerably. If...

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Bitcoin technical analysis on the daily timeframe: Next target is $21250 (apx. 5% lower)

2023-03-04

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Bitcoin is ranging and the next target is a tripple magnet of key price levels, as shown in the video. Trade BTCUSD at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views. Visit: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/combining-volume-profile-in-technical-analysis-bitcoins-next-target-is-21250-20230304/

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The USD is marginally lower in limited price action today. What key levels are in play?

2023-03-03

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The USD is marginally lower in trading today as the trading week works toward the close. In this report, I outline the technicals that are driving 3 of the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.  Each are trading around some key moving average levels which should help to dictate the trading bias for the currency pairs.    Be aware. Be prepared.

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Tumbling Tokyo Prices Gives Ueda Breathing Space

2023-03-03

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2023-03-03

Overview: Talk from two Fed officials yesterday, which seemed to validate market expectations eased the upward pressure on the dollar and helped equities launch a dramatic recovery. The market is pricing in a terminal rate near 5.50%, a little higher than the median dot in December. The S&P 500 posted a dramatic recover and posted a potential bullish key reversal. Its 0.75% closing gain was the largest advance in nearly three weeks. A large...

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USD moving higher in early NY trading. What is fueling the gains? ForexLive Video

2023-03-02

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In this video, we discuss the USD's early US trading gains on lower initial jobless claims and stronger employment data. We also analyze the key technical areas for GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, and USDCAD, highlighting the risk-defining levels for each pair.

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Israeli shekel vs the US dollar: A technical analysis since the 1st judicial reform demonstration

2023-03-02

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In this video, we provide a technical analysis of the US dollar since the 1st judicial reform demonstration. We'll examine key price levels, chart patterns, and potential trading opportunities.

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Higher for Longer Helps the Dollar while Weighs on Equities

2023-03-02

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2023-03-02

Overview: The jump in prices paid in yesterday's US ISM manufacturing coupled with the stronger eurozone inflation, with a new cyclical high reported in the core rate, underscores the market theme of higher-for-longer. This is seen as dollar supportive but also negative for risk-assets, including and especially equities. European benchmark 10-year yields are up another couple of basis points today and the 10-year US Treasury yield is pushing above...

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Natural gas futures technical analysis, seeking a short if this bear flag plays out.

2023-03-02

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Watch the (red) bear flag shown. If price breaks down, a short is possible, or after a retest. At your own risk.

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March 2023

2023-03-01

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2023-03-01

Price pressures remain elevated, and labor markets are strong, giving most policymakers in the G10 the incentive to continue raising interest interests. There are two exceptions: Japan, the only country still with a negative policy rate (-0.10%), and Canada, where the central bank has indicated it would pause. While half-point hikes or larger were common in the second half of last year, the major central banks have slowed or will slow the pace to...

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The USD is moving lower today, but can the momentum continue?

2023-03-01

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In today's report, we examine the levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, and USDCAD that traders will be eyeing for intraday trading clues. While the USD is mostly lower today, the GBPUSD is showing a little more mixed action, with some upside corrective movement in early US trading.

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Doubt Chinese Data, but Its Stronger-than-Expected PMI Lifts Risk Assets

2023-03-01

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2023-03-01

Overview: Many investors may be skeptical of the accuracy of Chinese data, but its stronger than expected February PMI animated the animal spirits and bolstered risk-taking appetites. Asia Pacific equities jumped, led by the 4.2% rally in Hong Kong and a 5% surge in the index that tracks mainland shares. Among the long bourses Australia and Singapore slipped, and South Korean markets were closed for a national holiday. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting...

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