Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

FOMC Preview: Coronavirus Daily Change

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Thursday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in Q4.

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Dollar Firm at Start of Very Eventful Week

Oil prices continue their rapid decline due to both supply and demand concerns; the dollar is trading at the top end of recent trading ranges. This is one of the most eventful weeks for the markets in recent memory; one day ahead of the elections, the implied odds remain roughly at the same levels as they have been for the last few weeks; October ISM manufacturing PMI will start the ball rolling for a key US data week.

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17 States that Charge Estate or Inheritance Taxes

Death tax, inheritance tax, estate tax—call it what you will, they all mean that some government entity wants to put its hand in your pocket or your heirs’ pockets, after your demise.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Steady Ahead of ECB Decision

Global equity markets are gaining limited traction today after yesterday’s bloodbath; that sell-off helped test a now prevalent hedging thesis for investors. The dollar remains bid; US Q3 GDP data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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ALICE Doesn’t Work Here Anymore

What the political class and the Financial Nobility don't yet grasp is that ALICE will never go back to her insecure, low-wage job, ever.

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What’s Going On, And Why Late August?

This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?

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Flying Blind: Clueless about Risk, We’re Speeding Toward Systemic Failure

For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. There's an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it.

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ECB Preview

The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Start the Week in Risk-Off Mode

Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note. Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in.

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How Systems Collapse: Reaping What We’ve Sown

Don't expect healthcare or any other hollowed-out, heavily optimized system to function as it once did. A great many Americans will be shocked when our healthcare systems start failing because they believed the PR that "we have the finest healthcare system in the world.

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Charitable Remainder Trusts

Alhambra's' Bob Williams describes Charitable Remainder Trusts and how they can be used as a planning tool to create a win-win for you and charities.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX took advantage once again of broad dollar weakness. Most EM currencies were up last week against the dollar, with the only exceptions being ARS, TRY, INR, THB, PEN, and MYR. We expect the dollar to remain under pressure this week and so EM should remain bid.

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Next Up: Global Depression

The belief that central banks printing currency can "buy/fix" everything that's broken, lost or scarce is the ultimate in denial, fantasy and magical thinking. Let's revisit the pandemic projection chart I prepared on February 2, 2020, nine days after authorities publicly acknowledged the Covid virus outbreak in China.

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Yep, There’s A New ‘V’ In Town And The Locals…Don’t Seem To Much Care For It

They should be drooling over the prospects of a clearing path toward normality. The pain and disaster of 2020’s economic hole receding into a more pleasant 2021 which would have been in position to conceivably pay it all back before any long run damage.

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Consumer Confidence Indicator: Anesthesia

Europeans are growing more downbeat again. While ostensibly many are more worried about a new set of restrictions due to (even more overreactions about) COVID, that’s only part of the problem. The bigger factor, economically speaking, is that Europe’s economy has barely moved, or at most not moved near enough, off the bottom.

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Dollar Catches Modest Bid but Weakness to Resume

Geopolitical tensions have risen after US officials accused Russia and Iran of meddling in the elections; the dollar has caught a modest bid today. Stimulus talks continue; Pelosi warned that a deal may not come together before the November 3 election; whether Republican Senators change their minds after the elections depends on the outcome.

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Everything is Staged

All the staging is a means to an end, and everyone in America is nothing more than a means to an end: close the sale so the few can continue exploiting the many. You know how realtors stage a house to increase its marketability: first, they remove all evidence that people actually live there.

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The New Tyranny Few Even Recognize

Clearly, the Fed reckons the public is foolish enough to believe the Fed's money will actually be "free." It's pretty much universally recognized that authorities use crises to impose "emergency powers" that become permanent.

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Dollar Soft as Markets Await Fresh News and Rumours

The dollar is coming under pressure again; markets are finally waking up to the fact that a stimulus deal before 2021 is unlikely; 10-year Treasury yields have been trading in a narrow range for months.

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Will the Stock Market Be Dragged to the Guillotine?

The Fed's rigged-casino stock market will be dragged to the guillotine by one route or another. The belief that the Federal Reserve and its rigged-casino stock market are permanent and forever is touchingly naive. Never mind the existential crises just ahead; the financial "industry" (heh) projects unending returns of 7% per year, or is it 14% per year?

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