This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about.
September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept and .05% MoM in Aug.
Here’s a picture of Factory Orders. Looking at this time series, it’s almost as if the recession that has been 2 years in the waiting was merely coming off a covid fever sugar high. Orders briefly went negative, but now climbing. Let’s see if we can maintain the positive momentum from Q3, stay tuned.
Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of the individual expressing those opinions. This information is non-tailored, non-specific information presented without regard for individual investment preferences or risk parameters. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, all investments entail risk and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. This information is based on sources believed to be reliable and Alhambra is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies, or omissions of information. For more information contact Alhambra Investment Partners at 1-888-777-0970 or email us at [email protected].
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Weekly Market Pulse: Monetary Policy Is Hard
2023-11-06
So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?
The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by more than a rounding error over that time.
The culprit, the reason stocks and bonds did so poorly over that time, is pretty simple – interest rates. The 10-year Treasury note yield roughly tripled during that time and all assets have been affected by those higher rates. Since January 1. 2021, the consumer price index has risen by 17.5%, a 6%
Macro: Employment Report
2023-11-03
Wall street cheered the fact that we added fewer jobs (150,000) than expected (179,000) in October. This was a welcome relief after the hot September number that was revised down from 336,000 to 279,000.
Macro: Challenger Job Cuts — Improvement throughout the year
2023-11-02
We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989.
Macro: Sep CPI stuck at 3.7% YOY
2023-10-13
The most anticipated release of the week came in … “Unchanged” or sticky stuck from the August at 3.7% yoy. But it’s worth mentioning as we will discuss below that this is up from June CPI which was 3.09% yoy. Core CPI which excludes food and energy because of their volatility sits at 4.13% yoy down from 4.39% last month.
Let’s look under the hood a bit because headlines will mention “sticky” CPI and there are some reasons that CPI will indeed be stickier for longer than we hope.
Let’s first start with energy which is about 7.5% of the basket. With the exception of the spike in oil coinciding with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil peaked in June 22 at around $122/bbl. So for the whole year of June22-June23 oil was helping bring inflation down. In June22 energy inflation was 41.25% yoy
Verhandlungserfolg mit diesem einen Wort (holen Sie mehr raus)
2023-08-09
Ganzes Video: -U
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📚 Von Dr. Markus Elsässer
3.📚 "Die sechs entscheidenden Lektionen des Lebens" – *https://amzn.to/3V6SbsO
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Als Hörbuch *https://amzn.to/3nAM7IU
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Dr. Markus Elsässer, Investor und Gründer der Value Fonds
„ME Fonds – Special Values“ – WKN: 663307
„ME Fonds – PERGAMON“ – WKN: 593117
https://www.elsaessermarkus.de/
Wichtige Morning News mit Oliver Klemm #156
2023-08-09
Kostenfreies Video-Training (Durch Trading in 2023 absichern) 👉 https://oliverklemmtrading.com/casestudy-1?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tradingcoacholi&utm_term=morning-news&utm_content=1
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Oliver Klemm, besser bekannt als TRADING COACH OLI ist Trader mit Herz und Leidenschaft. Nach über 40
Tags: durable goods,economy,factory orders,Featured,newsletter
