This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about.
September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept and .05% MoM in Aug.
Here’s a picture of Factory Orders. Looking at this time series, it’s almost as if the recession that has been 2 years in the waiting was merely coming off a covid fever sugar high. Orders briefly went negative, but now climbing. Let’s see if we can maintain the positive momentum from Q3, stay tuned.
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So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?
The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by more than a rounding error over that time.
The culprit, the reason stocks and bonds did so poorly over that time, is pretty simple – interest rates. The 10-year Treasury note yield roughly tripled during that time and all assets have been affected by those higher rates. Since January 1. 2021, the consumer price index has risen by 17.5%, a 6%
Macro: Employment Report
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Wall street cheered the fact that we added fewer jobs (150,000) than expected (179,000) in October. This was a welcome relief after the hot September number that was revised down from 336,000 to 279,000.
Macro: Challenger Job Cuts — Improvement throughout the year
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We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989.
Tags: durable goods,economy,factory orders,Featured,newsletter
