Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Trying To Project The Goods Trade Cycle

2021-12-17

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2021-12-17

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure.

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Can science help poor kids earn more? | The Economist

2021-12-16

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The wide gap in development between rich and poor children could be closed with the help of neuroscience. Might a controversial focus on genetics also help? Film supported by @Mishcon de Reya LLP 00:00- The achievement gap between rich and poor kids 00:55 - Words matter in childhood development 03:16 - Conversation can combat childhood inequality 05:09 - Can genetics help close the achievement gap? 07:30 - Genetics can be controversial Sign up...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Peaked?

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

The headlines last Friday were ominous: Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly 40 Years. Inflation is Painfully High… Groceries and Christmas Presents Are Going To Cost More. Inflation is Soaring..

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Get in Crash Positions

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

When the market goes bidless, it's too late to preserve capital, never mind all those life-changing gains. Everyone with some gray in their ponytails knows the stock market has ticked every box for a bubble top, so everybody get in crash positions: Let's run through the requirements for a bubble top: 1. Retail investors (i.e. dumb money) are all in and buying the dip with absolute confidence.

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Xi’s Gambit: China at the Crossroads

2021-12-10

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2021-12-10

If Xi's gambit succeeds, China could become a magnet for global capital. If success is only partial or temporary, China may well struggle with the structural excesses that are piling up not just in China but in the entire global economy.

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2022: a preview of the year’s biggest themes | The Economist

2021-12-09

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What will some of 2022’s top themes and stories be? Tom Standage, editor of The Economist’s future-gazing annual, “The World Ahead 2022”, gives his prediction 00:00 What to expect in 2022 00:35 Pandemic to endemic 01:35 Inequality in hybrid working 02:34 Taming cryptocurrencies 03:43 The race to dominate space 04:34 The need for corporate climate solutions Read our latest coverage on The World Ahead: https://econ.st/3HtLmuQ Sign up to The...

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A Global JOLT(s) In July

2021-12-09

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2021-12-09

The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million.

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The Productive Use Of Awful Q3 Productivity Estimates Highlights Even More ‘Growth Scare’ Potential

2021-12-08

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2021-12-08

What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding of “growth scare” and its affect on the US labor market.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

2021-12-07

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2021-12-07

The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn’t true on a global basis as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs.

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The Long Cycles Have All Turned: Look Out Below

2021-12-03

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2021-12-03

But alas, humans do not possess god-like powers, they only possess hubris, and so all bubbles pop: the more extreme the bubble, the more devastating the pop. Long cycles operate at such a glacial pace they're easily dismissed as either figments of fevered imagination or this time it's different.

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How vegan burgers can help save the planet | The Economist

2021-12-02

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When people cook steak, they’re also cooking the planet. As meat consumption continues to rise, what role can meat alternatives play in a more sustainable food system? Read more: https://econ.st/3rvlWHC Film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - What you put on your plate impacts the planet 01:03 - Britain’s meat-eating habits 03:06 - The environmental impact of meat and dairy 05:43 - Plant-based food is better for the environment 07:03 - The rise of...

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This Is A Big One (no, it’s not clickbait)

2021-12-02

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2021-12-02

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: dollar up for reasons no one can explain; yield curve flattening dramatically resisting the BOND ROUT!!! everyone has said is inevitable; a very hawkish Fed increasingly certain about inflation risks; then, the eurodollar curve inverts which blasts Jay Powell’s dreamland in favor of the proper interpretation, deflation, of those first two.

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Covid-19: How dangerous is Omicron? | The Economist

2021-12-01

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The new variant of covid-19, Omicron, is spreading around the world. Just how infectious is the strain, and will current vaccines prove effective against it? Our experts answer your questions. 00:00 What is Omicron? 01:30 How dangerous is Omicron? 02:39 Will new vaccines be needed? 03:15 What are governments doing? 04:17 Is this new variant a setback in the fight against covid-10? Keep up to date with The Economist’s coverage of the...

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Medicare Eats Up Most of the 2022 Social Security Raise

2021-12-01

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2021-12-01

There was dancing in the streets when Social Security announced that 2022 checks will go up by 5.9%, the biggest Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) in 40 years. But now, the streets are empty and the cheering is gone. Most of that Social Security COLA will be eaten up by increases in Medicare.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-12-01

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Lundi 29 novembre 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Why Inflation Is a Runaway Freight Train

2021-11-30

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2021-11-30

The value of these super-abundant follies will trend rapidly to zero once margin calls and other bits of reality drastically reduce demand. Inflation, deflation, stagflation--they've all got proponents. But who's going to be right?

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Economic Growth Scare: Are Markets Rightly Scared? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 168c]

2021-11-30

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The nominal value of Chinese imports of iron ore, German exports and Japanese exports all look pretty, pretty good. But the unit volume is pretty, pretty awful.

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The ‘Growth Scare’ Keeps Growing Out Of The Macro (Money) Illusion

2021-11-26

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2021-11-26

When Japan’s Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry (METI) reported earlier in November that Japanese Industrial Production (IP) had plunged again during the month of September 2021, it was so easy to just dismiss the decline as a product of delta COVID.

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Why it’s harder to earn more than your parents | The Economist

2021-11-25

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In the 21st century it's got harder to earn more than your parents and to climb the social ladder. What's gone wrong, and what can be done to change this? Film supported by @Mishcon de Reya LLP 00:00 - Why it's harder to get rich if you're born poor 03:29 - Social divisions are increasing within society 04:11 - Changing patterns of social mobility over time 05:41 - Education as a determinant of social mobility 09:16 - Class barriers to further...

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When Risk and Opportunity Become Personal

2021-11-25

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2021-11-25

The opportunity to lower our exposure to risk is always present in some fashion, but embracing this opportunity becomes critical when precarity and change-points rise like restless seas.

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