Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Three Things About Today’s UST Sell-off, Beginning With Fedwire

Three relatively quick observations surrounding today’s UST selloff.1. The intensity. Reflation is the underlying short run basis, but there is ample reason to suspect quite a bit more than that alone given the unexpected interruption in Fedwire yesterday.

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Iran v America: what’s behind the feud? | The Economist

Iran and America’s decades-long feud has led to hostage-taking, sanctions and proxy wars that have shaped the Middle East. What is behind the feud, and can it be resolved? Chapters 00:00 - The history of the feud 01:01 - 1951-53: The Persian Oil Crisis 02:04 - The 1953 coup 04:11 - 1978-1979: The Iranian revolution 05:12 - 1979-81: The hostage crisis 06:58 - 1980-88: The Iraq-Iran war 09:06 - 1983: US embassy bombing 09:50 - Hizbullah 11:00 - The...

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Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable

How much energy, water and food will the "money" created out of thin air in the future buy? Finance is often cloaked in arcane terminology and math, but the one dynamic that governs the future is actually very simple.

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Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same benefit of the doubt.

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For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal...

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What Might Be In *Another* Market-based Yield Curve Twist?

With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago.

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Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the  spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14 basis point rise in the 10 year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery.

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.

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How will covid-19 change travel? | The Economist

The covid-19 pandemic has devastated the travel industry. But as vaccines are rolled out and global travel slowly picks up, how will the industry evolve, and will holidays ever be the same again? Read more here: https://econ.st/3aA2row Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3aor3kg Read our special report about the future of tourism: https://econ.st/3bnP1vc Read about why...

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What Poisoned America?

America's financial system is nothing more than a toxic waste dump of speculation, fraud, collusion, corruption and rampant profiteering. What Poisoned America?

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Two Seemingly Opposite Ends Of The Inflation Debate Come Together

It’s worth taking a look at a couple of extremes, and the putting each into wider context of inflation/deflation. As you no doubt surmise, only one is receiving much mainstream attention. The other continues to be overshadowed by…anything else.

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Uncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs

American consumers were back in action in January 2021. The “unemployment cliff” along with the slowdown and contraction in the labor market during the last quarter of 2020 had left retail sales falling backward with employment. Seasonally-adjusted, total retail spending had declined for three straight months to end last year.

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Quick Takes: Not Allowing Deflation *is* the Inflation (w/Jeff Snider Criticism)

Two sides of the same coin here, where preventing deflation is the inflation. #JeffSnider #EmilKalinowski #AlhambraInvestments #InflationVsDeflation #LukeGromen #LynAlden

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The Green Market – Episode 1: Charles Hugh Smith, Julian Morris and Martí Jiménez-Mausbach

This weeks host, Richard Bonugli, CEO of Cedargold, talks with Charles Hugh Smith (OfTwoMinds.com), Julian Morris (Senior Fellow at Reason Foundation), and Martí Jiménez-Mausbach (Head of Research at the Ostrom Institute) on the works of Hayek, Elinor Ostrom and whether local and decentralised economies can promote Market Environmentalism to the masses, who are looking to find a sustainable solution to the problems of climate change, without...

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Christine Lagarde: How covid-19 will shape Europe | The Economist

Europe has been widely criticised for its slow response to the covid-19 pandemic. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, discusses the long-term damage and whether things might have been different had there been more female leaders. Chapter titles 00:00 - Covid-19 in Europe 00:52 - How covid-19 worsens inequality 03:35 - Why female leaders have performed better 05:10 - How to have more female leaders 06:38 - Europe’s stimulus...

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Gains Are Unreal, Losses Are Real

Why would anyone sell when further gains are guaranteed? Because the gains are unreal but the losses are real. When markets are soaring and your portfolio is rocketing higher, the gains seem unreal.

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What Collapsed the Middle Class?

The middle class has already collapsed, but thanks to debt and bubbles, this reality has been temporarily cloaked. What collapsed the middle class? In many ways the answer echoes an Agatha Christie mystery: rather than there being one guilty party, a number of suspects participated in the collapse of the middle class.

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The Endangered Inflationary Species: Gazelles

Nevada is, by all accounts and accountants, in rough shape. Very rough shape. An economy overly dependent upon a single industry, tourism, in this case, is a disaster waiting to happen should anything happen to that industry. Pandemic restrictions, for instance.

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Can flying go green? | The Economist

Covid-19 has caused the worst crisis in aviation's history. Is this the industry's moment for a green reset—and which technologies offer the best hope? Read The Economist’s special report on business and climate change: https://econ.st/3bbckJZ Sign up to The Economist’s fortnightly climate change newsletter: https://econ.st/3b8FQ3c Find our most recent climate change coverage: https://econ.st/3pQLYkq Can the aviation industry fully recover...

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Permanent Jobs And Permanent Job Losses

Even the feds haven’t been able to keep up. Without the government having taken over student loans in the wake of 2008-09’s Great “Recession”, there’d have been almost no additional consumer credit extended during the decade since.

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