Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Dollar Rangebound in Quiet Start to an Eventful Week

Today marks a relatively quiet start to what is likely to be one of the most eventful weeks we’ve seen in a while; the dollar remains within recent well-worn ranges. The US continues to ratchet up trade tensions; the only US data report today is the June budget statement.

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The Sinking Titanic’s Great Pumps Finally Fail

The greater fools still partying in the first-class lounge are in denial that even the greatest, most technologically advanced ship can sink. On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments and other features, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly calm night.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

This is likely to be one of the most eventful weeks we’ve had in a while. Not only do three major central banks meet, but four EM central banks also meet, and we get important June and July data from the US, the first Q2 GDP reading from China, an OPEC+ meeting, and an EU summit.

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Jeff Snider – How Is US Labor Force Changing? (RCS Ep. 41)

Interview original date: April 25th, 2020 Labor force participation expanding. The labor force is not what it used to be. In a typical recession the labor force doesn't really change, it continue to grow, it doesn't contract. That changed in 2008, the labor force then started to contract. Discuss about the survey of labor participation.

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Covid-19: why travel will never be the same | The Economist

Covid-19 has devastated global travel and—as the industry recovers from the effects of the pandemic—tourism will be increasingly localised and complicated. This won’t just affect foreign holidays; it could disrupt the workings of the globalised world. Read more here: https://econ.st/3gJ0O8f Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2VVNiWW Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up...

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Second Wave Global Trade

Unlike some sentiment indicators, the ISM Non-manufacturing, in particular, actual trade in goods continued to contract in May 2020. Both exports and imports fell further, though the rate of descent has improved. In fact, that’s all the other, more subdued PMI’s like Markit’s have been suggesting.

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The American Economy in Four Words: Neofeudal Extortion, Decline, Collapse

Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of capital, but in reality it is a Neofeudal Oligarchy. Now that the pandemic is over and the economy is roaring again--so the stock market says--we're heading straight back up into the good old days of 2019. Nothing to worry about, we've recovered the trajectory of higher and higher, better every day in every way.

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Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Yet to Recover

The US has started the formal process of withdrawing from the WHO; the dollar continues to benefit from risk-off sentiment but remains stuck in recent ranges. The White House is asking Congress to pass another $1 trln stimulus plan by early August; President Trump hosts Mexican President AMLO for a two-day visit.

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Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020

Most Long-Term Trends Have Not Changed. A lot has changed over the last 4 months since the COVID virus started to impact the global economy. Asia was infected first with China at ground zero. Their economy succumbed first with a large part of the country shut down to a degree that can only be accomplished in an authoritarian regime.

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Gratuitously Impatient (For a) Rebound

Jay Powell’s 2018 case for his economic “boom”, the one which was presumably behind his hawkish aggression, rested largely upon the unemployment rate alone. A curiously thin roster for a period of purported economic acceleration, one of the few sets joining that particular headline statistic in its optimism resides in the lower tiers of all statistics.

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What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?

Given the extremes of the stock market's frauds and even greater extremes of wealth/income inequality it has created, tell me again why the stock market will still exist in 2024? When I read a financial pundit predicting a bull market in stocks through 2024, blah-blah-blah, I wonder: what makes you think the stock market will even exist in 2024, at least in its current form?

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Risk assets remain hostage to swings in market sentiment. Stronger than expected US jobs data last week was welcome news. However, the tug of war between improving economic data and worsening viral numbers is likely to continue this week, with many US states reporting record high infection rates.

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Reality Beckons: Even Bigger Payroll Gains, Much Less Fuss Over Them

What a difference a month makes. The euphoria clearly fading even as the positive numbers grow bigger still. The era of gigantic pluses is only reaching its prime, which might seem a touch pessimistic given the context. In terms of employment and the labor market, reaction to the Current Employment Situation (CES) report seems to indicate widespread recognition of this situation. And that means how there are actually two labor markets at the moment.

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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield

The elites dancing through the minefield all have plans, but how many are prepared for the punch in the mouth? Open any newspaper from the past 100 years and you will soon find a newsworthy geopolitical hotspot or conflict. 

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Covid-19: what will happen to the global economy? | The Economist

The covid-19 pandemic has caused economic chaos and uncertainty. Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor-in-chief, and Edward Carr, our deputy editor, answer your questions about the global economy Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/31E02VY Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.st/3ghRh7W Read our briefing on the damage...

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Dollar Soft Ahead of Jobs Report

Re-shutdowns continue to spread across the US; the dollar has come under pressure again. Jobs data is the highlight ahead of the long holiday weekend in the US; weekly jobless claims will be reported. FOMC minutes were revelatory; the Fed for now will rely on “outcome-based” forward guidance and asset purchases to achieve its goals; US House passed the latest China sanctions bill.

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An Interesting Juncture in History

Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won't be evenly distributed, either. We've reached an interesting juncture in history, and I don't mean the pandemic. I'm referring to the normalization of extremes in the economy, in social decay and in political dysfunction and polarization.

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Charles Hugh Smith – People Are Now Aware Of What Will Happen

Recently, people are more aware of what can happen. This awareness raises in economic conditions and political realities make people think. Every new choice is a new beginning for people. SUBSCRIBE For The Latest Issues About ; #useconomy2020 #economynews #useconomy #coronaviruseconomy #marketeconomy #worldeconomy #reopeneconomy #openeconomy #economynews #reopeningeconomy #globaleconomy #silverprice #stockmarket #recession #goldpricetoday...

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What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere

China’s PMI’s continue to impress despite the fact they continue to be wholly unimpressive. As with most economic numbers in today’s stock-focused obsessiveness, everything is judged solely by how much it “surprises.” Surprises who? Doesn’t matter; some faceless group of analysts and Economists whose short-term modeling has somehow become the very standard of performance.

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Dollar Begins the Week Under Pressure Again

The virus news stream remains negative; pressure on the dollar has resumed. The US economy is taking a step back just as Q3 is about to get under way; there are some minor US data reports today. UK Labour leader Starmer overtook Prime Minister Johnson in the latest opinion poll; Macron’s party did poorly in French local elections.

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