Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

White-Hot Cycles of Silence

We’re only ever given the two options: the economy is either in recession, or it isn’t. And if “not”, then we’re led to believe it must be in recovery if not outright booming already. These are what Economics says is the business cycle. A full absence of unit roots. No gray areas to explore the sudden arrival of only deeply unsatisfactory “booms.”

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The World Ahead 2022: five stories to watch out for | The Economist

What will be the biggest stories of 2022? As the pandemic continues to wreak havoc across the globe, President Xi will cement his power as leader of China, tech giants will coax more of us into virtual worlds and the space race reaches new heights. The Economist is back with its annual look at the top stories of the year ahead. Film supported by @TeneoCEOAdvisory 00:00 The World Ahead 2022 00:40 China revels in democracy’s failings 04:11 Hybrid...

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Watch the Top 5percent – They’re the Key to the Whole Economy

Go ahead and become dependent on asset bubbles and the free spending of the top 5%, and optimize your economy to serve this "growth," but be prepared for the consequences when the costs of this optimization and dependency come due.

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The Historical Monetary Chinese Checklist You Didn’t Know You Needed For Christmas (or the Chinese New Year)

If there is a better, more fitting way to head into the Christmas holiday in the United States than by digging into the finances and monetary flows of the People’s Bank of China, then I just don’t want to know what it is. Contrary to maybe anyone’s rational first impression that this is somehow insane, there’s much we can tell about the state of the world, the whole world and its “dollars”, right from this one key data source.

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You Owe Me

You Owe Me composition, vocals and lead guitar by charles hugh smith, rhythm guitar, bass, drums and recording engineering by Jimi Juju. You tell me that you can't afford the rent the student loan or your truck I don't care about your problems pal just do what it takes to get me the bucks You owe me You owe me and I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be You say that you did everything you were told Got your degree and a gig Now you lost your job...

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Start Long With The (long ago) End of Inflation

With the eurodollar futures curve slightly inverted, the implications of it are somewhat specific to the features of that particular market. And there’s more than enough reason to reasonably suspect this development is more specifically deflationary money than more general economic concerns.

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Green energy: Which sources are the most sustainable? | The Economist

Fossil fuels still supply about 80% of the world’s power. How can energy be produced and used more sustainably to meet climate targets? We answer your questions. film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - Why energy needs to become more sustainable 00:33 - How much energy should come from renewables? 01:19 - Why isn’t nuclear power used more widely? 02:19 - How can solar power be made more efficient? 03:34 - Will biofuels become widely used? 04:30 - Do...

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TIC October: The Deflationary ‘Dollars’ Behind The Flat, Inverting Curves

Seems like ancient history given all that’s happened since, but on October 13 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a planned deluge of cash management bills in the wake of the debt ceiling resolution (the first one). The next day, China’s currency, CNY, broke free from its previous and suspiciously narrow range.

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One Shock Case For ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Reaching A Quarter-Century

Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the facts.

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The World Ahead: the true costs of ageing | The Economist

The rich world is ageing fast. How can societies afford the looming costs of caring for their growing elderly populations? film supported by @Mission Winnow 00:00 The wealthy world is ageing 01:17 Japan’s elderly population 02:11 The problems of an ageing world 04:01 Reinventing old age 05:48 Unlocking the potential of older years 07:09 Reforming social care 08:20 A community-based approach 11:08 A fundamental shift is needed Read our special...

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One Chart Traders Might Want to Ponder

But when the Fed's fundamental powerlessness is revealed and the buy-the-dippers have been forced to liquidate, the true meaning of "mild" contagion will become apparent. Since I'd rather not be renditioned to a rat-infested, freezing cell in an unnamed 'stan, I'm circumspect about viruses in general.

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How Vulnerable Is Your Personal Supply Chain?

How vulnerable is your personal supply chain? For the average American, the answer is: very. Americans consider abundance and ready availability as birthrights so basic they're like the air we breathe. The idea that shelves could become bare and stay bare is incomprehensible. yet that is the world we're entering, for a number of complex reasons.

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Playing Dominoes

That was fast. Just yesterday I said watch out for when the oil curve flips from backwardation to contango. When it does, that’s not a good sign. Generally speaking, it means something has changed with regard to future expectations, at least one of demand, supply, or also money/liquidity.

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Smart Enough to Get Rich, Not Smart Enough to Keep It

Are we smart enough to keep our oh-so-easily conjured riches? If we continue to believe that doing more of what's failed spectacularly will deliver permanently expanding riches, then the answer is no.

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Testing The Supply Chain Inflation Hypothesis The Real Money Way

Basic intuition says this is a no-brainer. Producer prices rise, businesses then pass along these higher input costs to their customers in the form of consumer price “inflation” so as to preserve profits. This is the supply chain hypothesis. Statistically, we’d therefore expect the PPI to lead the CPI.And this was expected for much of Economics’ history, taken for granted as one of those self-evident truths (kind of like the Inflation Fairy). After...

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The FOMC Chases The US Unemployment Rate Regardless of China’s Huge Mess

In certain quarters, “scientific” quarters, the Chinese haven’t just done a fantastic job managing their own outbreak of COVID-19, the Communist government has produced a pandemic response model for the entire world to envy.

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Trying To Project The Goods Trade Cycle

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure.

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Can science help poor kids earn more? | The Economist

The wide gap in development between rich and poor children could be closed with the help of neuroscience. Might a controversial focus on genetics also help? Film supported by @Mishcon de Reya LLP 00:00- The achievement gap between rich and poor kids 00:55 - Words matter in childhood development 03:16 - Conversation can combat childhood inequality 05:09 - Can genetics help close the achievement gap? 07:30 - Genetics can be controversial Sign up...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Peaked?

The headlines last Friday were ominous: Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly 40 Years. Inflation is Painfully High… Groceries and Christmas Presents Are Going To Cost More. Inflation is Soaring..

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Get in Crash Positions

When the market goes bidless, it's too late to preserve capital, never mind all those life-changing gains. Everyone with some gray in their ponytails knows the stock market has ticked every box for a bubble top, so everybody get in crash positions: Let's run through the requirements for a bubble top: 1. Retail investors (i.e. dumb money) are all in and buying the dip with absolute confidence.

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