Category Archive: Global Macro

Beyond Income Inequality

Judging by the mainstream media, the most pressing problems facing capitalism are 1) income inequality, the basis of Thomas Piketty’s bestseller Capital in the Twenty First Century, and 2) the failure of laissez-faire markets to regulate their...

Six Narratives on the Ascendancy of Trump

A remarkably diverse array of "explanations" of Donald Trump's presidential election victory have been aired, representing both the conventional political spectrum and well beyond.

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM ended last week on a somewhat firmer note, though we note divergences remain in place. For the week, ZAR and KRW performed the best while TRY and BRL were the worst. US jobs data Friday will draw some attention, though a December Fed rate hike is...

Why Is the US Dollar Rising?

Note the apparent breakout above 100 and the constructive similarities to the 2014 breakout that was followed by a 20% increase in the purchasing power of the USD relative to other currencies.

The New Nobility Uses Political Correctness to Fragment the Precariats

Combine identity politics with political correctness, and the New Nobility/Oligarchy can laugh their way to the bank while their pawn-serfs fight over how many politically correct angels can dance on the head of a pin.

How Do We Create Value When Knowledge Is Almost Free?

Credentials are increasingly in over-supply; problem-solving skills are scarce. How do we create value in an economy that is increasingly dependent on knowledge? The answer is complicated by the reality that knowledge is increasingly digital and...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Philippine President Duterte will reportedly ask central bank. Governor Tetangco to stay on for a third term. South Africa’s government has proposed a national minimum wage. Fitch moved the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- from stable to negative....

Healthcare: Inflation Hidden in Plain Sight

Charles Hugh Smith shows how health care costs are exploding in the United States and how this will lead sooner or later to inflation.

Why Reshore Manufacturing? It’s the Only Way to Avoid Defective Pirated Parts

If you want to lose your brand, your pricing power and your customers, by all means, rely on a global supply chain filled with defective parts that cannot possibly be detected. Reshoring the entire supply chain so it can be trusted is the low-cost...

The Age of Disintegration: Political Disunity and Elites At War

Historian Michael Grant identified profound political disunity in the ruling elite as a key cause of the dissolution of the Roman Empire. Grant described this dynamic in his excellent account The Fall of the Roman Empire. The chapter titles of the book...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX ended the week on a soft note, as higher US rates continue to take a toll. EM policymakers are getting more concerned about currency weakness, with Brazil, Malaysia, Korea, India, and Indonesia all taking action to help support their currencies....

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Malaysia appears to have enacted a subtle change in FX policy. Turkey cut foreign currency reserve requirements in an effort to increase the supply of foreign exchange. Brazil’s central bank suspended the sale of reverse currency swaps and started...

The Great Con: Political Correctness Has Marginalized the Working Class

So when the protected class of well-paid institutional "progressives" speak darkly of "reversing 40 years of social progress," what they're really saying is we're terrified that the bottom 95% might be waking up to our Great Con of identity politics...

Are Emerging Markets Still “A Thing”?

Last week I jumped on a call with an old friend Thomas Hugger who I hadn't spoken with in months. I recorded the call for your enjoyment but first a quick bit of background to Thomas. Thomas is a Swiss fund manager living and working in Asian frontier...

You’ll Only Understand Trump and Brexit If You Understand the Failure of Globalization

You can only understand the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit once you understand the failure of globalization… Trump made rejection of globalization a centerpiece of his campaign. In his July 21st acceptance speech as the Republican nominee, he said:...

Rising Immigration but no Jobs

The list of pundits jostling for air time to add their two cents to discussions of hot-button issues such as immigration is endless. The airwaves and social media are overflowing with people wanting to comment on hot-button social issues, but when it...

The Source of Trump’s Success: The Bigger and Bigger Wage Gap

There are many sources of rage: injustice, the destruction of truth, powerlessness. But if we had to identify the one key source of non-elite rage that cuts across all age, ethnicity, gender and regional boundaries, it is this: The Ruling Elite is...

Seven Suggestions for President-Elect Trump

Make sure your administration is as diverse as America. No single act will give your enemies more ammo than populating your cabinet and administration with the Usual Suspects: Caucasian elites from Ivy League universities. These privileged "experts"...

China Update

The evolving political situation in China is worth monitoring. China's trade surplus with the US has fallen this year. It has been roughly 20 years since China was formally labeled a currency manipulator. Trump has indicated he would do so.

Who Lost: A Biased Media, Pundits, Pollsters, Political Parties, Warmongers, the Corporatocracy, Pay-to-Play Grifters, Neoliberals

Let's start with the Corporatocracy, which expected to once again wield unlimited influence by funding political campaigns with millions of dollars in contributions and speaking fees. A biased mainstream media. My mom-in-law was watching CBS all night,...