Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week's events with Joe Calhoun.

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Front-Running the Crash

We have a fine-sounding word for running with the herd: momentum. When the herd is running, those who buy what the herd is buying and sell what the herd is selling are trading momentum, which sounds so much more professional and high-brow than the noisy, dusty image of large mammals (and their trading machines) mindlessly running with the herd.

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Did covid-19 leak from a Chinese lab? | The Economist

For most of 2020 the theory that covid-19 leaked from a Chinese lab was dismissed as unlikely. In the past few months it has gained currency. Our experts explain why. Read more here: https://econ.st/3gzOVnV 00:00 - Where did covid-19 come from? 00:44 - What evidence is there? 02:06 - Why was the lab-leak theory dismissed? 03:23 - Could the lab leak have been deliberate? 04:07 - Could covid-19 be man made? 05:51 - How are the origins being...

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The FOMC Accidentally Exposes Itself (Reverse Repo-style)

Initially, the dots got all the attention. Though these things are beyond hopeless, the media needs them to write up its account of a more fruitful monetary policy outcome because markets continue to discount that entirely.

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Copper Corroding PPI

Yesterday, lumber. Today, copper. The “doctor” has been in reverse for better than two months now, with trading in the current session pounding the commodity to a new multi-month low. Down almost $0.19 for the day, an unusual and eye-opening loss, this brings the cumulative decline to 9.2% since the peak way back on May 11.

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Another Round of Transitory: US Retail Sales & (revised) IP

Same stuff, different month. We can basically reprint both what was described yesterday about supply curves not keeping up with exaggerated demand as well as the past two months of commentary on Retail Sales plus Industrial Production each for the US. Quite on the nose, US demand for goods, anyway, is eroding if still artificially very high.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

Weekly Market Pulse with Alhambra Investments, interview with Joe Calhoun.

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Seven Things Nobody Talks About that Will Eventually Matter–A Lot

Perhaps it shouldn't surprise us that everything that will eventually matter is ignored until it does matter--but by then it's too late. Here's a short list to start the discussion: 1. The Federal Reserve has transformed the American populace into a nation of dismayingly over-confident gamblers.

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Crypto: will the bitcoin dream succeed? | The Economist

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies set out to upend the financial order and replace conventional money. Bitcoin has certainly disrupted the global financial system, but can it ever live up to the hype? Read our latest report on cryptocurrency: https://econ.st/3wnYfRr Find The Economist’s latest finance and economics coverage: https://econ.st/3pCKsnp Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage:...

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The Inflation Emotion(s)

Inflation is more than just any old touchy subject in an age overflowing with crude, visceral debates up and down the spectrum reaching into every corner of life. It is about life itself, and not just quality. When the prices of the goods (or services) you absolutely depend upon go up, your entire world becomes that much more difficult.

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The Sources of Rip-Your-Face-Off Inflation Few Dare Discuss

Inflation will be transitory, blah-blah-blah--I beg to differ, for these reasons. There are numerous structural sources of inflation, which I define as prices rise while the quality and quantity of goods and services remain the same or diminish.

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Post-Pandemic Metamorphosis: Never Going Back

People caught on that the returns on the frenzied hamster wheel of "normal" have been diminishing for decades, but everyone was too busy to notice. The superficial "return to normal" narrative focuses solely on first order effects: now that people can dispense with masks and social distancing, they are resuming their pre-pandemic spending orgy with a vengeance, which augurs great profits for Corporate America and higher tax revenues.

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Can Brazil Survive Bolsonaro? | The Economist

Since coming to power President Jair Bolsonaro has shaken democracy, accelerated deforestation in the Amazon and played down the danger of the coronavirus pandemic, with calamitous results. Could Brazil survive another four years of his leadership? Read the special report here: https://econ.st/3fPue6S Find all of our coverage of the Americas: https://econ.st/3g4gLXZ Read all of coronavirus coverage here: https://econ.st/3vMo6BU How Jair...

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(Not) Living Large on Social Security

How many retired workers are getting less than $1,000 per month in Social Security benefits? The question came up and I was curious enough to find the answer, and download the data into an Excel spreadsheet which I saved as a

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Increasingly Chaotic Volatility Ahead–The New Normal Few Think Possible

The standard debate about the future of the economy is: which will we get, high inflation or a deflationary collapse of defaults and asset bubbles popping? The debate goes round and round in widening circles of complexity as analysts delve into every nuance of the debate.

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Why hunting animals could be good for conservation | The Economist

Trophy hunting sparks outrage around the world. But the highly controversial sport can actually help to protect some of Africa's most endangered big animals. Here's how. Find The Economist’s latest coverage of Africa: https://econ.st/3bTxaNw Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3l79OHi Read more about airlines banning trophy hunting: https://econ.st/3bVs6by Does conservation...

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Systemic Risks Abound

For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby. There are two consequential results of the Fed as savior: The Fed has perfected moral hazard. Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.

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FOMO Is Loco

We can also posit a general rule that those who inherit wealth and succumb to FOMO are eventually less wealthy while those who are wealthy and take a pass on FOMO / hoarding at the top of the manic frenzy increase their wealth.

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Fed to Treasury Dealers and Congress: We Can’t Count On You, We’re Taking Charge

The Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient "saves" of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.

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How covid-19 exposes systemic racism in America | The Economist

Black people in America are twice as likely to die from covid-19 as white people. This highlights the country’s ongoing struggle with structural racism, as our experts explain Sign up to our weekly American politics newsletter “Checks and Balance,” to keep up to date: https://econ.st/3vlemOX Read our special report on race in America: https://econ.st/2QOtjKs George Floyd’s legacy, a year since his murder: https://econ.st/3oKjx8A How...

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