Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Weekly Market Pulse: It’s An Uncertain World

You’re going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for “the” yield curve to uninvert (which isn’t a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a bit more rapidly than the 10-year.

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What If All the Conventional Models Fail to Predict What Happens Next?

The 'novel, apocalyptic situation which has now arisen' goes largely unrecognized. A truly staggering quantity of content is aimed at predicting what happens next, a.k.a. the future, and justifies their prediction by referencing models that are presented as rock-solid predictive tools.

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Extremes come true: Germany’s far-right triumph

The hard right has taken Germany into uncharted territory (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/09/01/the-hard-right-takes-germany-into-uncharted-territory?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners), winning one state election and racking up a large share in another. The far left is on the march too. Is Germany...

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For whom the well tolls: Why we must price water

Water scarcity is growing even in parts of the world that used to be drought-free. Since most countries waste (https://www.economist.com/international/2024/08/26/the-poisonous-global-politics-of-water?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) vast quantities of water, charging for it would help. Our correspondent...

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Nvincible? What could curb Nvidia’s supremacy

The American chip designer has become one of the world’s most valuable companies on the back of the AI revolution. But there are some contradictions in Nvidia’s plans for the future (https://www.economist.com/business/2024/08/26/what-could-stop-the-nvidia-frenzy?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners)....

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Cryptic message: why arrest Telegram’s founder?

As Pavel Durov (https://www.economist.com/business/2024/08/27/the-arrest-of-telegrams-founder-rattles-social-media?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) sits in a French cell waiting to find out if he will be charged, our correspondent probes the links between Telegram and Russia. What central bankers and...

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Block busters: how Russia flouts sanctions

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the West has deployed massive economic restrictions (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/19/the-mysterious-middlemen-helping-russias-war-machine?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) on Russian trade. So why is Russia’s economy growing? A survivor’s story from the forgotten...

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The chips are down: will diet drugs devour junk food?

Snack-food companies have long shown their adaptability to changing diets (https://www.economist.com/business/2024/08/18/can-big-food-adapt-to-healthier-diets?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners). How could the rise of appetite-suppressing drugs and fears about ultra-processed foods change the food we...

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KamaChameleon: What does Harris stand for?

After an electric week at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Kamala Harris now faces the real test (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/08/22/kamala-harris-can-beat-donald-trump-but-how-would-she-govern?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) in her bid to be president. Can she convince American...

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Electric eye: AI is helping fight terrorists

Predicting political violence is a painstaking job. Now AI is helping analysts (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/07/31/how-america-built-an-ai-tool-to-predict-taliban-attacks?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) look for clues and throwing up fascinating insights into the shifts that may...

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The human strain: can mpox be contained?

Mpox is spreading fast across Africa, yet public information campaigns are scant and vaccines in short supply. Is a new pandemic in the offing? Strategists are pondering a new potential threat from Russia: the possibility that it could detonate a nuclear weapon in space...

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Byte by byte: Iran and Israel’s escalating cyberwar

While many people fear the risk of a wider war breaking out in the Middle East, a parallel battle (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/08/15/irans-electronic-confrontation-with-israel?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) is already ongoing – in the digital sphere. Can China challenge a...

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Hail Harris: the Democratic convention begins

As Democrats convene in Chicago, polls suggest Kamala Harris (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/08/15/our-forecast-puts-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-neck-and-neck?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) is ahead by a whisker in the US presidential race. Can the party sustain the momentum? In hospital,...

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Landing padded: the global-recession risk

Inflation, interest rates and jobless numbers are on healthy trends; markets are gaining back ground. As the spectre of global recession fades (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/07/a-global-recession-is-not-in-prospect?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) we ask why fear has persisted....

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The best non-fiction of 2024—so far

Packing for your summer holiday? Rachel Lloyd, our deputy culture editor, discusses five of our top non-fiction books of the year so far.

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What Trump means for nuclear defence

Donald Trump is a fan of nuclear weapons. If he were to win the 2024 election he would make nuclear deterrence even more unstable Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter: https://econ.st/3QAawvI US election coverage: https://www.economist.com/us-election-2024 America prepares for a new nuclear arms race: https://econ.st/4csgSYy A new era of nuclear uncertainty: https://econ.st/4dJX8Rk What would nuclear war in the 21st century look...

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One peace at a time: Gaza, Israel and Iran

Peace talks in Doha have a chance at progress even in Hamas’s absence. The outcome could determine the scope of Iran’s promised retaliations (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/08/07/israeli-aircraft-buzz-beirut-as-the-drums-of-war-bang-loud?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) against...

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The best fiction of 2024—so far

Looking for your next summer read? Our deputy culture editor, Rachel Lloyd, shares five of The Economist's top fiction books of 2024—so far.

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Bait the hook! Fishing in the global talent pool

Skilled immigrants bring more than just their expertise to job markets. But governments miss opportunities to attract them—or make them feel entirely unwelcome. In America it seems like the standard tip fraction just keeps going up and up...

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AIOU: what if the AI boom busts?

Corporate investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure reaches $1.4trn by some estimates. We ask what might threaten (https://www.economist.com/business/2024/07/28/what-could-kill-the-1trn-artificial-intelligence-boom?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) the expected windfalls that justify the...

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