Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Q3 Cyclical Outlook

2024-06-25

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2024-06-25

Growth peaked on a quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3 last year at 4.9%. The preferred reading is on an annual basis where growth peaked in Q4 of last year at 3.13%. Growth in Q1 was 2.88% and growth in Q2 has risen some and is trending at right about 3%. 

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"Why Are You So Negative?" Good Question. Here’s the Answer: Real Life

2024-06-25

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2024-06-25

I think it's more productive to go with Plan B: set aside our emotions and reluctance and start doing the hard work of dealing with polycrisis.

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Sober Spending Of Drunken Sailors

2024-06-24

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2024-06-24

Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the U.S. beginning this very year.

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Argentina turning? Milei’s surprising political success

2024-06-21

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Since his election last year, President Javier Milei has enjoyed some economic and political wins in Argentina. But his toughest fight (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/06/19/javier-mileis-next-move-could-make-his-presidency-or-break-it) is yet to come. On Britain’s general election trail, our correspondent found voters less keen on the prospect of a Labour victory than on punishing the Conservative party...

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Empire of the sun: a solar power revolution

2024-06-20

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No energy source has ever increased as fast as solar photovoltaics. The technology will transform humanity’s energy consumption–even when the sun doesn’t shine. Many people associate champagne with success but wine collectors often shun it. Now global sales are fizzing (10:51).

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French fried: will the election lead to chaos?

2024-06-19

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Both the left and right are likely to do well in France’s upcoming parliamentary poll, with President Emmanuel Macron’s party squeezed in the middle. The snap election could leave the country in chaos (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/06/16/france-is-being-thrown-into-uncharted-territory). In America, recreational use of weed is now commonplace, but what impact does it have on users’ wellbeing...

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Heir tight: why boomers are so stingy

2024-06-18

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The post-war generation reaped the benefits of peace and prosperity. Yet rather than spend that bounty, retired boomers are hoarding their riches (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/26/baby-boomers-are-loaded-why-are-they-so-stingy)–and upending economists’ expectations. The science of menstruation is baffling, partly because most animals don’t do it. Now clever innovations...

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Sudan impact: the war the world forgot

2024-06-17

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Much of Sudan has already collapsed into chaos (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/05/24/sudan-the-war-the-world-forgot). Now a crucial city may fall, the United Nations is belatedly scrambling to avert a bloodbath. Gary Lineker (https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/05/25/footballer-broadcaster-podcast-mogul-the-career-of-gary-lineker) is a former footballer, broadcaster and podcast mogul. He also embodies Britain’s social aspirations...

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Fight for his party to the right: Nigel Farage

2024-06-14

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Britain’s pint-sipping rabble-rouser of the right has joined the campaigning (https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/06/06/the-return-of-the-farage-ratchet?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) ahead of a general election. Win or lose, he will make an impact. America’s stadiums and arenas are often built using...

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A real work of peace? An Israel-Hamas deal

2024-06-13

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America’s upbeat assessment of a ceasefire deal masks deep divides (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/06/12/hamas-and-israel-are-still-far-apart-over-a-ceasefire-deal?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) that may not, in fact, be bridgeable. There are nevertheless reasons for optimism. Our...

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Market Morsel: How “The Market” Is Really Doing

2024-06-12

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2024-06-12

When people talk about “the market” they are usually referring the big indexes – the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. For more casual observers, “the market” is the Dow which is a lousy index for a lot of reasons but has the advantage of history. But are any those really representative of how “the market” is doing? Not really.

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America’s next top-job model: our election forecast

2024-06-12

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We have dusted off and tuned up our forecast model (https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) for America’s presidential race. So far it gives Donald Trump a marginally higher chance of a second term. There is at last progress on not...

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Doing their not-own thing: “generation rent”

2024-06-11

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Across the rich world millions spend more than a third of their disposable income on rent. We ask why policymakers have such terrible ideas (https://www.economist.com/international/2024/05/29/is-your-rent-ever-going-to-fall?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) on easing the pressure. America’s bid to crimp...

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French anti-foreign legion: an EU-election shock

2024-06-10

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Hard-right parties did well in Europe's parliamentary elections—so well in France that President Emmanuel Macron called (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/06/09/as-the-french-hard-right-triumphs-in-eu-elections-macron-calls-snap-vote?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) a risky snap election. Elsewhere,...

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The Modi Raj 1: The chaiwallah’s son

2024-06-08

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Narendra Modi has been chosen to lead India for the third time in a row. But after 10 years in power, he was humbled at the national election. What kind of leader will he be? Stories from his youth in the Hindu nationalist movement offer clues. This episode draws on audio from the following publishers: Narendra Modi YouTube, ANI, Legend Global Studios, Lalit Vachani, Prasar Bharti Archives, Desh Gujarat, The New York Times, NDTV, Doordarshan and...

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If AI Is So Great, Prove It: Eliminate All Surveillance, Spam and Robocalling

2024-06-07

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2024-06-07

AI is for the peons, access to humans is reserved for the wealthy. Judging by the near-infinite hype spewed about AI, its power is practically limitless: it's going to do all our work better and cheaper than we can do, replacing us at work, to name one example making the rounds.

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One dam thing after another? Ukraine and reconstruction

2024-06-07

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When Russia attacked the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine a year ago, lives were lost, families stranded and towns submerged. But from that devastation emerged discussion on post-war reconstruction (https://www.economist.com/interactive/europe/2024/06/05/russias-explosion-of-a-huge-ukrainian-dam-had-surprising-effects). Our correspondent spent months investigating Narendra Modi (https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/the-modi-raj), the strongman who was...

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Labour’s pains: Britain’s growth problem

2024-06-06

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As Britain’s general-election campaign heats up, party leaders are vague on their economic plans (https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/06/03/can-britains-economy-grow-as-fast-as-it-needs-to). With growth so slow, how could the victor energise the economy? We visit the D-day beaches 80 years on, as war rages in Europe once again (10:19). And Venice’s new daytripper fee...

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Modi’s mess: a shock election result spells uncertainty for India

2024-06-05

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Narendra Modi, the strongman of India, will have to compromise now his party has lost its majority (https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/06/04/a-shock-election-result-in-india-humbles-narendra-modi). What does the surprise result mean for the country? As some foreign investors shy away from Africa, the continent’s private sector (https://www.economist.com/business/2024/05/23/africa-inc-is-ready-to-roar) is serving domestic customers to fill that...

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The big gag: Hong Kong’s crackdown on freedom

2024-06-04

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There has been a slow strangling of freedom (https://www.economist.com/china/2024/05/30/hong-kong-convicts-14-pro-democracy-activists?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) in the territory where pro-democracy activists have been convicted; an annual vigil for the victims of the Tiananmen Square crackdown in...

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