Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Gardening Guide To Better Portfolio Returns In 2025

2025-01-17

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2025-01-17

As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way. However, while most analysts and investors expect 2025 to be another bullish year, there is always a risk of a more disappointing …

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Technical Bounce On Inflation Data

2025-01-17

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2025-01-17

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Administrative Note I am publishing the report a day early as we are holding our Economic and Investment Summit tomorrow morning. As such, all the data in this report is either as of Thursday’s close or early Friday morning. Therefore, any erroneous conclusions will be corrected in Monday’s Daily …

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Bond Vigilantes Are Building Tremendous Short Positions

2025-01-17

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2025-01-17

Our Commentary from January 7, Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous, discussed the 'tremendous' investor outflows of the bond ETF- TLT. While outflows are often associated with investors being bearish, that is not always true. Nonetheless, TLT is in a bearish trend, and indeed, some of the record outflows from TLT are due to the environment. …

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Fed’s Restrictive Policy: Perception vs. Economic Reality

2025-01-16

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Interesting discrepancy between Fed's view on policy and the real economy. Credit card usage as a key indicator. ?? #Economy #Fed #Policy Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/347dd5 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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1-16-25 CPI: What’s Next?

2025-01-16

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Lance and Michael interpret the latest CPI, PPI, PCE, and GDP numbers: Which one is most-meaningful to the Fed? Earnings Season continues with Big Banks reporting; JPMorgan kills it, but how are regional banks faring? Stock buy backs this time around are expected to exceed $1-Trillion. mostly benefitting large cap stocks. Markets cling to 100-DMA, and aim for the 50-DMA to set up to rally. Michael discusses portfolio management, and Lance previews...

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The Impact of Healthcare Costs on Retirement Planning

2025-01-16

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2025-01-16

Retirement planning often focuses on saving and investing for daily living expenses, but healthcare costs can significantly impact your financial security. With longer lifespans and rising medical expenses, preparing for healthcare costs in retirement is essential. This guide explores projected healthcare expenses, the role of Medicare and supplemental insurance, and strategies for managing retirement healthcare …

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The Trump Bump And Dump

2025-01-16

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2025-01-16

On Monday, the S&P 500 officially made a round trip back to the same levels as election eve. The equity rally that kicked off when Donald Trump won the election has been erased. The financial media blames the recent dump on prospects for wide-reaching tariffs and other policies. The reality is that higher bond yields … Continue reading...

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1-15-25 CPI Day: The Big Reveal

2025-01-15

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With inflation at the wheel, driving the current economic narrative, the Consumer Price Index release, out this morning at 7:30 a.m. CT, is the week's headline event — and its results could ripple throughout the markets. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff discuss the CPI Report for January 2025 with Consumer Price Index Analysis, a look at Inflation Trends for 2025, the Federal Reserve, and CPI Data. Economic Indicators January 2025December's data is...

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How Rising Interest Rates Affect Hedge Funds and Bond Markets

2025-01-15

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Rising interest rates lead to hedge funds shorting bonds, driving prices down and rates higher. The cycle continues. #Finance101 Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/b62b7d YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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Technical Analysis Is Not Voodoo, Its Vital Context

2025-01-15

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2025-01-15

If you draw enough lines on a stock chart, one of them is bound to predict the future accurately! Given that technical analysis is perfect in hindsight and flawed in foresight, many investors mock it as arbitrary. Some, like Aaron Brown, link its practice with horoscopes, tarot cards, and crystal balls.  The difference between science …

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The Inflation Narrative Versus Reality

2025-01-15

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2025-01-15

Fed rate cuts, tariffs, deficits, California wildfires, and other narratives bolster a growing concern that inflation will surge again. While those narratives are concerning, and some may have merit, market and survey-based inflation expectations do not confirm them. The Fed and almost all economists use two types of gauges to measure inflation expectations: surveys and …

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Understanding Long-Term Drivers in the Bond and Stock Markets

2025-01-14

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Short-term fluctuations in bond yields and stock prices don't alter long-term trends. Focus on fundamental drivers for lasting impact. ?? #Investing Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/bbdf3c YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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1-14-25 Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase

2025-01-14

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PPI & CPI Preview: Earnings season is about to commence, followed by the opening of the Buy Back window. Higher yields (and term premiums) are weighing on markets. Term premiums are just a measure of sentiment; watch what companies say, impacted by higher yields. Markets rally to just above the 100-DMA. Lance reviews investor sentiment, credit spreads, and market valuation (which charts). Noting the (limited) impact of taffis on a...

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Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase

2025-01-14

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2025-01-14

In last week's discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more "tactically bearish" as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering. However, it is critical to note that being "tactically bearish" does NOT mean we …

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Buffett Is Worrying, Should You?

2025-01-14

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2025-01-14

Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has about $325 billion in cash, accounting for over a quarter of its portfolio—the highest percentage in over 30 years. The question begging an answer is, what is worrying Warren Buffett? We believe the answer is valuations. We have shared numerous charts over the last few months showing how valuations …

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Strategies to Combat Emotional Bias in Investing

2025-01-13

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Emotional biases can lead to bad investment decisions. Remember the rules and stay calm when things aren't going as expected. #InvestingTips Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/3a37ce YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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1-13-25 Investor Resolutions for 2025

2025-01-13

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The Cleveland Fed's expectations for increased inflation; Oil prices rise on increased Russia sacntions (thanks, Joe Biden); economic impact of California wildfires & the Broken Window Theory: There will be a short-term uptick from rebuilding activity. Markets point lower on hawkish Fed tone; current correction process is normal. There is not data to support investor sentiment on inflation sparked by tariffs; how we really create inflation....

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Jobs, Stocks, And Bonds Oh My!

2025-01-13

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2025-01-13

The initial reaction to Friday's BLS jobs report was a yield surge and a sharp stock decline. Stock investors are finally noticing higher yields. While sentiment can certainly cause stocks and bonds to deviate from fundamentals, at the end of the day, they both have fundamental roots in economic activity. Over the past couple of … Continue...

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How to Create a Comprehensive Financial Plan for Retirement

2025-01-13

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2025-01-13

Planning for retirement is one of the most important financial tasks you’ll ever undertake. A comprehensive retirement planning strategy can help ensure you achieve your goals, maintain your desired lifestyle, and manage risks effectively. Whether you’re just starting or nearing retirement, this guide walks you through the essential steps to create a solid financial plan …

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Why Predictions for 2025 Are All Over the Place

2025-01-12

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? Financial experts predicting 20% returns for 2025? ? Don't be fooled, nobody knows for sure what the market will do! #InvestingTips #MarketPredictions ? Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/16c04a YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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