Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Hiking Rates Into Peak Valuations Is A Mistake

2022-03-04

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2022-03-04

Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article. Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done in the past are missing one important detail, according to Bank of America Corp.’s strategists.While U.S. equities saw positive returns during previous periods of rate increases, the key risk this time round is that the Federal Reserve will be...

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What Markets Need to Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-03

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(3/3/22) Markets liked what Jerome Powell had to say to Congress, and continue to consolidate off over-sold conditions of a few days ago, holding support from January's lows. Markets remain in a bullish position, with stock buy backs very supportive of large-caps. Despite geopolitics and inflationary pressures, markets have held their own, going through a corrective process. However, there is still risk to the downside: There are three resistance...

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The Perfect Set-up for a Bear Market

2022-03-03

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(3/3/22) Markets seem to be doing great, but most of the support is coming from corporate share buy-backs, now at record high levels. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's first day of testimony was well-received on Wall St. Energy makes up 7% of GDP, but actually touches all aspects of daily life. Pricing Gasoline at 9/10ths Gallon; Bear Market Strategies, and what Volatility means. There's no direct link between Quantitative Easing and stock prices--just...

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Will Jerome Powell Take a Dovish Perch? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-02

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(3/2/22) Russia surrounds Kiev, markets sell-off under continuing pressure, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to testify before Congress: His comments could provide the octane to spur markets higher...or... Markets are set to rally again after re-testing support in a bid to consolidate above January & October's lows. With sentiment decidedly dour, what is needed is good news, which could come from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his remarks to...

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March Off to a Weak Start – Will We Recover?

2022-03-02

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(3/2/22) Markets commence the month of March in weak fashion as the Atlanta Fed reports GSP growth at 0.0%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address Congress and the tone of his comments could sway markets bullishly or bearishly. Joe Biden's State of the Union addressed problems facing the country, but no realistic solutions to economic challenges. The good thing about oil prices; the only cure for high prices is...high prices. Q1 Earnings...

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What is the VIX Telling Us About a Rally in March? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-01

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(3/1/22) Markets are opening lower over concerns about Russia, but the VIX is telling a slightly different story: Remember when we shut down the economy in March 2020?? Runaway volatility was based on uncertainty seeded by the COVID epidemic. Most recently, despite the 10% market correction over the last two months, concerns and sell-offs over the Fed's hiking of interest rates, liquidity, and the Russian invasion, volatility has risen only mildly....

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Oil Stocks Get a Boost from Russian Invasion

2022-03-01

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(3/1/22) Markets are holding-up, despite the distractions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but still remain in a downward trend. There is still possibility of Russian default on debt, with implications for Banking system. Markets are still skittish over liquidity, and looking for a reason to reflexively rally. Cryptocurrencies are being asked to block Russian transactions. Green agenda is being derailed as oil prices hit $100/bbl. Energy...

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Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching

2022-03-01

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2022-03-01

“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell high.” Before we go further, it is essential to state that I am not recommending selling energy stocks in total. As is always the case, portfolio management is...

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Markets Swift Response to Russian Invasion | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-28

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(2/28/22) Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system puts banking transactions and risk, and that's weighing on markets. Lot's of volatility afoot as traders try to figure out what this means in terms of market risk. Last week's rally is resulting in a bit of a selloff this morning. Gold is doing much better as a safe-haven play, but the commodity is now very over-bought. If you've been long gold, now's the time to take some profits. Oil is up on...

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Economic Consequences of Putting the Squeeze on Putin

2022-02-28

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(2/28/22) Russia's ill-advised invasion of Ukraine is having international repercussions, as domestic markets experience the biggest downturn since 2020. Oil prices are up $4/bbl as OPEC declines to boost production, and Russia is placed in time-out by SWIFT. Commodity prices are surging to 1973 highs, and interestingly, Cryptocurrencies are flailing in the crisis. SWIFT removal creates counter-party risk; market sentiment remains bearish. What...

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How Americans Will Feel the Pain of Ukraine

2022-02-26

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(2/25/22) Markets' surprising close on Thursday (2/24) proves how emotional investors can be; how economic effects will be felt in the U.S. The Fed's reaction and response: "We will not be dissuaded from hiking rates." We'll see. Retirees are looking anew at Social Security as a bridge alternative for annuities; critical examination of taking Social Security at 64 or 67 instead of holding out until 70. 1:54 - Coffee Spills & The...

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How Russian Invasion of Ukraine Impacts Your Money | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-24

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(2/24/22) Markets will open sharply lower following the overnight invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In anticipation, markets closed lower Wednesday (2/23), right on support set back in October 2021. How much more is there to go? We look to markets' previous responses for clues. Russia invaded Ukraine over a disagreement about Crimea in 2014. Markets then responded with the understanding there would be a resolution to the conflict in short order. That...

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How Will the Fed Respond to Russian Invasion?

2022-02-24

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(2/24/22) Russia Invades Ukraine--what's next? The Big Question for the US is what the Federal Reserve is likely to do in response--pausing rate hikes and balance sheet shuffling? The key point for investors is to not overreact as markets capitulate. The political implications of Russia-Ukrainian conflict-out comes unknown. It is interesting to see the effects on Gold and Bitcoin. 1:53 - How to React to Russian Invasion 13:18 - Fiscal Fallout of...

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How to Use the Coming Correction to Your Advantage | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-23

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(2/23/22) Markets dip into correction territory, thanks to pressures from slowing earnings growth, higher inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Russian headlines. Markets Tuesday did hold support at January's lows, and should actually be positioned to rally, thanks to very negative, bullish sentiment across the board. As markets re-test support, they're over-sold on all levels, and we're looking for a reflexive rally back to the previous downtrend....

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Is Consumer Buying About to Go Bust?

2022-02-23

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(2/23/22) Geopolitical tensions, Inflation, and the spectre of rising interest rates may already be providing the Fed with enough gravity to fight inflationary pressures: Might the Fed be able to avoid a rate hike? Why Hindsight Bias and Anchoring are two bad habits that can thwart your portfolio performance during market downturns; why it's too late to buy into the oil surge; if you're buying what everyone else is, you've already missed the...

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Markets Prepare for Russian Invasion of Ukraine | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-22

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(2/22/22) Russian President Vladimir Putin's recognition of two separatist regions loyal to Russia would seem to set the stage for an invasion into Ukraine, with "peace keeping" troops amassing in the regions. Overnight futures plunged 500-points, but this morning have regained most of those losses. This variable, plus the Fed's intentions, are playing on markets as they try to hold support at October's lows. Don't dismiss the risk of a...

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What Markets Already Know About Vladimir

2022-02-22

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(2/22/22) Russian President Vladimir Putin used the long weekend to stage troops in pro-Russian separatist regions bordering Ukraine...have markets already foreseen this--and more? What Putin needs in order to "save face..." Consumers do not like geopolitical risks. What Anna Delvy & Elizabeth Homes have in common with investors: Greed. What is The Fed Put, and at what point can or will the Fed step in to "manage" the...

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How to Un-Retire in America

2022-02-19

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(2/18/22) The Fed is acting like a fire department that shows up on the scene and watches a house burn down. BlackRock's Larry Fink learns not to mess with Texas' Pension Fund; the difficulty of retiring "cold turkey;" Planet of the Apes calls into question, 'What's normal?' anymore. The outcome from taking early retirement vs benefits of delaying until age-70. Volatility in Retirement, and why the 4% Rule doesn't work; advantages of...

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The Dichotomy of Buying Stocks vs Stuff

2022-02-18

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(2/21/22) Why do we spend more time shopping on line for the best price, but do exactly the opposite when buying stocks? Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, joins Lance to discuss the problem of beating the Index, why we implemented our SimpleVisor tool, and how we manage risk; the importance of risk-sizing in portfolios. [NOTE: Markets are closed today for President's Day. This is an excerpt of an recent show.] SEG-1: The Dichotomy of...

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Fed & Furious Episode

2022-02-18

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(2/17/22) The escalation of geopolitical risk continues to toy with the markets. The CDC is leaning towards dropping masking; getting back to normal will be good for the economy. Retail sales headline numbers vs reality (without seasonal adjustments). FOMC Meeting minutes suggest Fed is pulling back from hawkishness. Why we spend more time shopping on line for the best price, but do exactly the opposite when buying stocks; the problem of beating...

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