Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Stable Coins Versus Banks: The Battle Over Interest Rates

2026-04-14

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2026-04-14

A battle is raging in the Halls of Congress between the banks and the crypto industry. The spark was a judgment by the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, which recommended that stablecoins be allowed to pay interest to their holders. As a result of the Genius Act, passed almost a year ago, stablecoins are … Continue...

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4-13-26 Is The Correction Over? Watch These Signals

2026-04-13

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The rally was expected after 5 straight weeks of declines, driven by extreme bearish sentiment and oversold conditions. Key signals flipped bullish, including a move above the 200-day moving average, VIX below 20, and stable earnings expectations. That improves the outlook over the next several months, but doesn’t eliminate volatility or the risk of a retest. The next move depends heavily on macro factors like oil prices and geopolitical...

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4-13-26 S&P 500 Rally: What Comes Next?

2026-04-13

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The S&P 500 just surged 8.2% off its March lows—reclaiming key technical levels and sitting within striking distance of all-time highs. But is this the start of a sustained move higher, or just a reflexive rally before another pullback? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down what drove the rally—from extreme bearish sentiment and a volatility reset, to easing geopolitical tensions—and why those factors matter for investors right now. We...

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The Market Knows What You Don’t

2026-04-13

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2026-04-13

A client and friend asked us a timely question: "Why did we remove our hedge position so quickly after the ceasefire, especially with little evidence it will hold?" The simple answer is the market knows more than all of us. Market prices are based on all available information. Some of the information is widely known, … Continue reading »

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S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.

2026-04-13

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2026-04-13

Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook changed dramatically in a matter of days. After five consecutive weeks of decline driven by …

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Q1 Earnings Season: Buy Or Fade The Rally?

2026-04-11

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2026-04-11

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Stocks Surge On Relief Note: I am traveling home from the UK today, so this week's missive will be short. Also, I had to write it on Friday before the U.S. markets officially closed. So, any discrepancies will be corrected next week when the full newsletter returns … Continue reading »

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4-10-26 What To Do After You Inherit Money

2026-04-11

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NOTE: Time codes for this episode are incorrect, pending YouTube's loonnnngggggg processing of today's video. Receiving an inheritance can be life-changing—but without a clear plan, it can also lead to costly mistakes. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty walk through the critical steps to take after inheriting money, from protecting the assets and understanding tax implications to building a long-term financial strategy. Key topics include:...

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4-10-26 The Economy Was Already Weak Before Iran & Oil — Don’t Forget That

2026-04-10

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The economy was already weakening before Iran and the oil shock—growth had slowed, the labor market was stagnant, and inflation was easing. The surge in oil simply distorted the picture, hurting sentiment and pushing the Fed into a tougher stance. If oil eventually normalizes, the real trend should re-emerge: a softer economy that may need support, not tighter policy. Until then, markets are reacting to noise more than underlying fundamentals....

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Delta Has An Ace In The Hole

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

On Wednesday, Delta Airlines announced it beat earnings expectations and, more importantly, its CEO maintained previous forward guidance despite the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian cited a $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by the conflict. While that added expense should weigh on earnings, Delta has a unique hedge that …

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Oil Shock: Will The Fed Intervene (Part 2)

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

Last week, we discussed the risk of an oil shock leading to a recession. To wit: "After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got …

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4-9-26 US–Iran Deal: What Investors Must Watch Next

2026-04-09

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Markets are reacting fast to signs of a potential resolution between the U.S. and Iran—but what should investors actually focus on next? A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough can spark a powerful short-term rally, driven by falling oil prices, easing geopolitical risk, and improved sentiment. But history shows these moves are often just the beginning—not the end—of the real story. Jon Penn & Michael Lebowitz break down the key signals...

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Ceasefire Rally: Can The Market Hold New Support

2026-04-09

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2026-04-09

Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While no one knows whether the ceasefire will hold, the market is entering a seasonally favorable …

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The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype

2026-04-08

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2026-04-08

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom …

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The Berkshire War Chest: A Crisis Hedge?

2026-04-08

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2026-04-08

Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373 billion in Cash. They have enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. For context, this is the largest cash stockpile since 2008. At that time, Berkshire used its cash not to buy stocks on the open market but largely to offer companies private deals that ordinary investors … Continue...

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An IPO Surge Hides Behind The Fog Of War

2026-04-07

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2026-04-07

While Investors remain fixated on the Iranian conflict and the extreme volatility of oil prices, a historic wave of AI-driven IPOs is quietly building in the background. When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year. As an appetizer, Anthropic, the Claude maker founded by …

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4-7-26 AI Advertising Explained: How Brands Win Inside ChatGPT

2026-04-06

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AI is changing how consumers discover businesses, make decisions, and trust information. Lance Roberts visits with Joseph Levi, Co-founder & CEO of Noise Media, about how advertising inside AI platforms like ChatGPT and Claude.AI could reshape marketing, SEO, and brand building. #AIAdvertising #ChatGPTMarketing #FutureOfSearch #DigitalMarketingStrategy #AIForBusiness

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Is A Squeeze In Bonds Coming?

2026-04-06

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2026-04-06

As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions in TLT and Treasury futures were near historically elevated levels, reflecting a broad consensus that …

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The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?

2026-04-06

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2026-04-06

Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets for more than 35 years, I have come to recognize the difference between a relief … Continue reading »

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Consecutive Weekly Declines & Fading Rallies

2026-04-04

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2026-04-04

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Market Rebounds On Resolution Hopes March closed as the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since 2022, with the index down roughly 7% on the quarter and every member of the Magnificent Seven finishing in the red. This past holiday-shortened trading week saw a sharp reflexive relief …

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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes

2026-04-03

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2026-04-03

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump …

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