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Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Biggest Myth About “Money Printing” Explained

2025-11-25

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The Fed doesn’t print money. In this short video, Garrett Baldwin and I discuss how real money is created through government debt issuance and bank lending, why Fed actions are just asset swaps, and why modern money is always lent into existence rather than printed. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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Ray Dalio Says Sell: But Not Yet

2025-11-25

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2025-11-25

Ray Dalio is considered by many investment professionals to be a market maven. This is because of the wild success of his hedge fund, Bridgewater, with assets under management of $136 billion, as well as several best-selling economics/finance books he has written. In recent times, Ray Dalio has repeatedly emphasized that markets are in a … Continue...

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Bitcoin Isn’t as Scarce as You’ve Been Told

2025-11-24

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In this short video, Parker White, CFA from @defidevcorp and I discuss how #Bitcoin infinite fractionalization mirrors monetary expansion and why the real advantage comes from who gets new money first, not just how much money exists. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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Permanent Job Losers: A Worrying Facet Of Today’s Economy

2025-11-24

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2025-11-24

Given the two-month delay, Thursday's BLS employment report on September labor market conditions was not nearly as pertinent as the BLS data typically is. Despite it being old news, it is worth sharing that the number of jobs increased by 119k, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%. The markets didn’t seem …

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Market Bubbles: A Rational Guide To An Irrational Market

2025-11-24

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2025-11-24

We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale …

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11-22-25 How the Fed Controls Every Asset You Trade

2025-11-22

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The Fed is now the single most important source of liquidity in every major market. In this short video, Michael Lebowitz and I break down the key signals that reveal when liquidity stress is building and why they matter for every asset you trade. 📺Full episode: _r_I Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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The AI Trade: Opportunity Or Warning?

2025-11-22

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2025-11-22

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …

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11-21-25 Why Narratives Break & Markets Correct

2025-11-21

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$SPY / $QQQ correct even in strong uptrends, but it feels worse because media panic amplifies every dip. In this short video, I explain why big narratives like rate cuts, AI or #Bitcoin liquidity always break and why this pullback is still normal for a bull market. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-28-25 Black Friday Special Edition

2025-11-21

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It's a cornucopia of content for this Friday following Thanksgiving, and Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty bemoan the demise of the U.S. Penny, the fallacy of risk tolerance questionnaires, Rich's Financial Fitness Garage and creating Retirement income; plus Rich's salutation for Thanksgiving. 0:00 - INTRO 0:44 - The Demise of the U.S. Penny 4:54 - Financial Risk Surveys - Rich & Jonathan's Scores 11:05 - Rich's Fitness Garage - Creating...

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11-21-25 Roth Conversion Strategy: What Actually Works

2025-11-21

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Not all Roth conversions are created equal — and new research shows a clear winner. Richard Rosso breaks down a study that modeled hundreds of thousands of retirement scenarios to determine which Roth conversion strategy performs best over a 10-year period: • Staying in a traditional IRA/401(k) and taking RMDs • A one-time Roth conversion • A gradual, multi-year conversion strategy We examine how taxes, RMDs, longevity, and investment returns...

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Capex Spending On AI Is Masking Economic Weakness

2025-11-21

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2025-11-21

The U.S. economy’s recent growth has a distinctive engine: large‑scale capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon have announced massive investments in data centers, servers, networking equipment, and AI infrastructure. As noted by Investing.com: "Artificial intelligence is consuming capital faster than investors can recalibrate. …

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Rate Cut Odds Slip Due To Lack Of Data

2025-11-21

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2025-11-21

As we share below, the odds of a Fed Funds rate cut at the December FOMC meeting are down to 33%. On Wednesday, there was an abrupt repricing of rate cut odds after the BLS cancelled the October employment report and delayed the November data until December 19th. Furthermore, the BLS JOLTS report for September … Continue reading »

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11-20-25 Wall Street Is Turning Bitcoin Into Just Another Volatile Asset

2025-11-20

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The #Bitcoin original promise of decentralization is fading as ETFs like $IBIT pull it deeper into Wall Street’s ecosystem. In this Short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss how short-term traders and arbitrage flows now drive more volatility, diluting true holders and turning $BTCUSD into just another tradable asset. 📺Full episode: _r_I Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-20-25 How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

2025-11-20

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How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds...

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Oracle And CoreWeave CDS Spreads Widening: Omen Or Jitters

2025-11-20

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2025-11-20

Fear is being spread on social media that some AI players are nearing default. The evidence, some say, lies in the Bloomberg graphs below showing the widening CDS spreads of Oracle and CoreWeave. Before getting into some details about what the CDS markets may be warning about Oracle and CoreWeave, let's explain what CDS is. …

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11/25/25 The System Is Broken: What Money Really Means Now

2025-11-19

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The financial system we rely on today isn’t what it used to be. From the Fed’s creation of “reserves” instead of real money to the collateral-driven markets that emerged after 2008, Lance Roberts & Garrett Baldwin break down how the game has changed—and what it means for your wealth. We cover everything from repo markets, ETFs, and the Buffett Indicator to the rise of passive investing and why sovereign nations are quietly buying gold. Plus,...

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11-19-25 Risk-Range Report: We Are Still In a Bull Market

2025-11-19

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$SPY / $QQQ pullback is not the start of a bear market. In this short video, I look at the Risk-Range data confirming the broader bull trend and explain why this dip is an opportunity, not a danger. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-26-25 Confidence, Chaos, and The K-Shaped Economy

2025-11-19

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Peter Atwater, one of the leading voices on confidence-driven behavior in markets and society, joins Lance Roberts to share how certainty, control, and herd mentality shape every major trend investors face today. Lance and Peter discuss The Confidence Map, why people behave differently when they’re in the “comfort zone” versus the “stress center,” and how these shifts explain the rise of speculative investing, the bifurcated K-shaped economy, and...

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11-19-25 Pension or Lump Sum – What’s the Smarter Move?

2025-11-19

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Choosing between a company pension and a lump-sum payout is one of the biggest financial decisions many pre-retirees will ever face—especially for workers in industries facing layoffs or restructuring, like the major oil companies in Houston right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key factors to consider when comparing a lifetime pension annuity versus taking a lump-sum distribution you can invest or convert into a private...

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How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

2025-11-19

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2025-11-19

In our last article, QE Is Coming, we focused on why the capital and financial markets have become so dependent on the Fed for liquidity.  The article explains that, in the aftermath of the crisis, a slew of regulations drastically changed the liquidity landscape. As a result, the Fed—not the private market—is now the primary …

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