by Lance Roberts
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| The rally was expected after 5 straight weeks of declines, driven by extreme bearish sentiment and oversold conditions. Key signals flipped bullish, including a move above the 200-day moving average, VIX below 20, and stable earnings expectations. That improves the outlook over the next several months, but doesn’t eliminate volatility or the risk of a retest. The next move depends heavily on macro factors like oil prices and geopolitical developments. Use this rally to rebalance risk and reposition, not to chase upside blindly. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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3-23-26 200-DMA Broken – Bear Market or Buy Signal?
2026-03-23
The S&P 500 just broke its 200-day moving average. Is this a bear market signal or a historic buying opportunity? The answer depends on a clear set of warning indicators – and right now, only two of six are flashing red.
Lance Roberts comments in real-time as news of a delay in miliary strikes on Iran power stations affects pre-market action.
Lance also breaks down every 200-DMA break since 2000, separating the seven sustained crashes from the five whipsaw recoveries. The data gap is stark: average 12-month return after a sustained break is -4.0%, versus +19.8% after a brief one. We walk through the six-factor scorecard and tell you exactly where today’s break stands.
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
3-20-26 The Private Credit Trap Nobody Saw Coming
2026-03-20
Private credit promised higher returns with lower volatility, but that stability came from illiquidity, not lower risk.
Investors accepted lockups to earn the premium, yet now want out as conditions shift.
The problem is these assets can’t be sold quickly without losses, forcing funds to gate withdrawals.
Years of excess capital and competition also created a bubble, with weaker underwriting and mispriced risk, just like 2008 but in a different space.
What looked like a safe, high-yield alternative is revealing its trade-off: you can’t have strong returns, low volatility, and liquidity at the same time.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
3-19-26 The Fed Is STUCK… And It’s Worse Than You Think
2026-03-19
It’s not just about rates — it’s about uncertainty + second-order effects.
Oil acts like a tax on consumers. They start spending less elsewhere. That hits earnings, growth, and markets.
At the same time, oil can still keep inflation elevated.
So you get a messy combo: slowing growth + sticky inflation = policy paralysis.
With this uncertainty, the Fed has no clear path forward.
For now, they are in wait-and-see mode, watching how conflicting forces (oil, inflation, growth) play out.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
1-30-26 This Indicator Is Screaming 2021-Level Speculation Again
2026-01-30
Retail risk appetite has surged to extreme levels last seen in early 2021, a period marked by peak speculation.
Margin debt is accelerating as speculative money rapidly rotates across assets, with $SLV and $GLD the latest examples.
In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why history shows these conditions often lead to sharp volatility, not smooth market advances.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
1-29-26 Market Risks Behind Powell’s “Nonrestrictive” Stance
2026-01-29
The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, keeping policy in a 3.5%–3.75% range.
Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how markets are reacting to Chair Jerome Powell’s message, and break down what the Fed is signaling—and why it could fuel market volatility ahead.
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – Mega Reports & Fed Fallout
4:31 – Markets Struggle after 7,000
9:33 – Inflation, Truflation, & Labor
14:14 – Chances of Rate Changes Higher or Lower?
16:44 – Current Growth Spurt is Unsustainable
19:10 – No Mention of QT/QE
21:10 – Citadel Securities; Risk-on Indicator
23:14 – Margin Debt is Bullish for Markets
26:13 – Liquidity Shifts & Fed Watching
29:15 – Geopolitics, Mid-term Elections & Potential Gov’t Shutdown
31:42 – Why Fed Policy Matters
34:02 – Are We In an AI Bubble
35:53 –
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Over the last few weeks, it seemed all but a done deal that Kevin Hassett would replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. That changed this past weekend as President Trump added Kevin Warsh alongside Hassett as his top Fed contenders. It’s likely that there are a couple of factors leading Trump to add …
Fed QT Ends. What Does That Mean For Markets?
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🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
The Most Dangerous Era In History
2025-10-27
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as “The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative. The MarketWatch piece puts it bluntly: “At one level, there …
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