Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

European Industrial Production Still Contracting, Switzerland Expanding Again

Swiss industrial production is rather insensitive to price changes and to the recent slowing of global demand thanks to the concentration on pharmaceuticals and luxury products.   Based on Eurostat’s industrial production for July and August , we compared the values from 2010 to 2013 for these two summer months. This aggregated two-months comparison is …

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8a) Italy and the Euro Exit

Italy, other peripheral economies and later France will follow Japan for a decade or more of balance sheet recession: stagnant wages, falling real estate prices and a reduction of private debt.

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History of Wrong Forecasts of Fed and Swiss Economists



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Before and After Lehman: Switzerland and the United States Compared



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Swiss Q2 GDP Details Compared to Japan, Germany, Australia and U.S.

  The Swiss GDP for Q2/2013 was in line with its peers in developed countries. The quarterly (not annualized) change was +0.5% compared to 0.6% for Japan and the United States, +0.7% for Germany and +0.5% for Australia. Swiss and Japanese growth was driven more by consumption, while the U.S. advances were based more on …

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Inflation Difference (HICP) between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows from 1.4 percent to 1.1 percent

  According to Swiss statistics, the yearly change in the Swiss consumer price index has risen from  -0.1% to 0%. The headline MoM figure fell by 0.4% due to the yearly sell-off in the retail sector. The difference between euro zone and Switzerland in terms of the European  Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP has … Continue reading »

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Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?



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European Banking Assets and Debt

Still in summer 2013, too much debt was an issue. By 2014 things have changed: Europeans have too many savings.

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FX Theory: Understand Terms of Trade and Price-Adjusted Trade Balances



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Swiss industrial production unimpressed by global slowing

Swiss industrial production rose by 3% in the first quarter 2013 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Turnover rose by 3.7%. Details

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The End of Swiss Deflation

The yearly change of the Swiss consumer price index has risen from -0.5% to -0.1%, the end of deflation is near. Swiss inflation measured with the European standard HICP has even improved to +0.2% y/y. Details

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Italian Retail Prices Remain close to Switzerland, Germany Far Cheaper

Disinflation Finally Starting in Italy The Swiss site preisbarometer.ch is run by the Swiss Consumer Association. Their price data shows that a food basket is 46% more expensive when compared between the German “Kaufland” shop and the Swiss “Coop”. Going to France into “Leclerc” gives you an advantage of 38% against Coop. However, for a …

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Reasons for the Spanish Housing Bubble



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SNB’s Danthine: Credit – is the sky the limit?



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Swiss second after Australia/NZL as for Employment Growth Since December 2007.

Employment growth since Dec '07: Oz +8.1%, Switzerland +6.9%, Germany +5.8% Canada +4.3% Sweden +2.6% UK +0.9% Dutch +0.7% USA -2.1% Japan -2.3% Italy -3.1%

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Swiss Inflation Rises, Services Up 0.6 percent YoY, Goods Swiss Origin +0.3 percent, Energy Tames

Cheaper energy prices and long-lasting contracts help against inflation. Swiss inflation increased by 0.1% against April. According to Swiss Statistics, on a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.5%. Major reasons for lower figures were the 6.3% YoY decrease in energy prices, 4.5% YoY lower clothes and footwear price and technological improvements in communication that caused … Continue reading »

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UBS’s Consumption Indicator 1.46 Contradicts UBS’s Swiss GDP Forecast

UPDATE, February 2014 According to the latest data from the SECO,Swiss GDP rose by 2% in 2014 and not by 0.9% as the UBS predicted. Once again the Swiss economy seems to be stronger than expected. UBS’s consumption indicator for April came out at 1.46 (details). This number seems at odds with the weak private … Continue reading...

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T. Jordan: Strong Swiss franc and large current account surplus – a contradiction?



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Swiss Inflation Unchanged, HICP Difference Euro Area to Switzerland Down to 1.6 percent

Swiss inflation unchanged in April against March. The inflation difference between the Euro area and Switzerland on a new low. While in early 2012 it was near 4%, if has shrunk now to 1.6%. Details

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