Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

USD/CHF technical analysis: Another attempt to defy 2-month-old rising wedge resistance

USD/CHF again aims to break two-month long rising trend-line, part of a bearish technical formation. Bullish MACD can trigger an uptick to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Sustained trading above 0.9948/50 confluence again propels USD/CHF to confront near-term key resistance-line while taking the bids to 0.9988 amid Tuesday’s Asian session.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Positive above multi-week old rising trend-line, 200-bar SMA

USD/CHF clings to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement amid bearish MACD. The rising trend-line since mid-August, 200-bar SMA limits downside. The seven-day long falling trend-line restricts immediate advances. Despite being mostly around 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of August-September upside, USD/CHF stays above key support-confluence as it trades near 0.9910 while heading into the European open on Monday.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Bulls trying to defend multi-week old ascending trend-channel

Fading safe-haven demand undermined the CHF demand and extended some support. Bears await a sustained weakness below short-term ascending channel support. The USD/CHF pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained well within the striking distance of near three-week lows set in the previous session, coinciding with the lower end of a multi-week-old ascending trend-channel.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Bounces off 50-day SMA, eyes on Swiss ZEW data, SNB bulletin

USD/CHF takes a U-turn towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 0.9950 resistance confluence. Sustained break of 50-DMA can recall 0.9800 on the chart. September month Swiss ZEW Expectations and SNB’s Q3 Bulletin in the spotlight. With its recent recovery from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the USD/CHF pair takes the bids to 0.9875 while heading into the European session on Wednesday.

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USD/CHF consolidates gains above 0.9900, limited by 0.9950

US Dollar rises versus Swiss Franc for the second-day in-a-row. USD/CHF testing key 200-day simple moving average and 0.9950. The USD/CHF rose on Thursday, holding firm above 0.9900. The pair peaked on European hours at 0.9947 and then pulled back finding support at 0.9900. The bounced back to the upside unable to challenge daily highs and is trading at 0.9930.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 1-week-old resistance-line, 23.6 percent Fibo. limits nearby upside

USD/CHF pulls back from a multi-day high, stays above 200-bar SMA. Trend-positive RSI increases the odds of upside. Despite bouncing off 200-bar simple moving average (SMA), USD/CHF fails to cross near-term key resistances as it trades around 0.9915 while heading into the European session open on Thursday.

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The SNB Is a Passive Clearing House Rather Than an Active Currency Manipulator

This post is a long excursion to make two simple points: The SNB is IMHO just acting in a passive way as a clearing house for (massive) capital inflows. It is not actively managing the exchange rate. A rate of increase of sight deposits of 2.5bn per week (100bn p.a.) is not extraordinary considering the need to recycle a current account surplus of 80bn p.a.

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CHF: Possible reversal? – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche bank analysts suggest that at current spot levels, risk-reward favours longs in EUR/CHF. “While Brexit and trade war outcomes look like coin tosses, the impact is likely to be asymmetric as the SNB caps the left tail. While a relief rally would be fully accommodated, they would likely intervene heavily and cut the policy rate in the event of no deal.”

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Bull in control above 21-day EMA, short-term rising support-line

USD/CHF remains modestly changed above 13-day-old rising trend-line, 21-day EMA. An ascending trend-line from August 13 adds to the support. August month top, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level challenge buyers. The USD/CHF pair’s failure to provide a decisive break above August high seems to not disappoint buyers, even for short-term, unless the quote trades below key support-confluence.

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EUR/CHF risk reversals hit highest since May on call demand

EUR/CHF risk reversals have jumped to the levels last seen in May. Risk reversals indicate the demand for call options is rising. Risk reversals on EUR/CHF (EURCHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to put, jumped to the highest level since May on Friday, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rally in the common currency.

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A “Hawkish Cut”? Traders’ Sleepless Nights Dominated By Indecision & Confusion

The avalanche of central bank meetings is rapidly winding down. We’ve had cuts, holds and a raise. The surprises have been minimal. Yet it didn’t prevent the inevitable knee-jerk reactions in the market. In truth, put together as a whole, we are no wiser nor better or worse off. I count that as a success. Especially because there was no projection of panic in any of the decisions.

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AUD/CHF technical analysis: Bears looking for a run to a 50 percent mean reversion

AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement for a 50% reversion. A subsequent pull-back, however, to the resistance and another sell-off will likely make for a high probability set up. AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement of the August lows to September highs, located at 0.6715, and target the 50% retracement at 0.6674 (meeting the 2019 lows) should the markets...

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Switzerland’s international investment position: Focus article ‘Breakdown of changes in stocks’ and extension of data offering

The Swiss National Bank has today published a focus article on its data portal entitled ‘Switzerland’s international investment position – breakdown of changes in stocks’ (data.snb.ch, Resources, International economic affairs, Focus articles).

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 4H 100MA, 2-week-old support-zone limit immediate declines

USD/CHF extends Thursday’s downpour, nears short-term key supports. An upside break of 0.9985 could recall June month highs. Given the failure to rise past-0.9980/85 area, USD/CHF carries the previous day’s declines while trading around 0.9913 ahead of the Europe markets open on Friday.

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SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75 percent

SNB announces its latest monetary policy decision - 19 September 2019. Sight deposits rate unchanged at -0.75%Willing to intervene and will remain active in FX market as necessaryExpansionary monetary policy continues to be necessary.

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Monetary policy assessment of 19 September 2019

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 0.9950 to question buyers inside a rising wedge

USD/CHF takes the bids inside a six-week-old rising wedge bearish formation. 200-DMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement could restrict immediate upside. 0.9880 becomes the key support. Despite the recent rise, USD/CHF trades below the confluence of 200-day simple moving average (DMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August declines, close to 0.9940, while heading into the European session on Wednesday.

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Schweizerische Nationalbank – Weshalb die SNB ihre Munition nicht verpulvern wird

Noch vor wenigen Wochen galt es am Markt bereits mehrheitlich als ausgemacht, dass die Schweizerische Nationalbank am Donnerstag den Leitzins von minus 0,75 Prozent auf minus 1 Prozent weiter absenken wird. Ich konnte die Marktmeinung nie nachvollziehen. Der Wind hat nun tatsächlich gedreht. Eine weitere Absenkung der Zinsen scheint nun so gut wie ausgeschlossen.

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Morgan Stanley forecasts a surprise 25 basis point cut from the SNB

The Swiss National Bank needs to respond to the strong currency and lower rates from the ECB, according to Morgan Stanley. The consensus for Thursday's meeting is no change from -0.75% but Morgan Stanley and UBS are two firms that are forecasting a surprise 25 bps cut.

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