CHF traders take note – SNB Chair Jordan is speaking on Tuesday

2023-11-14

Biggest surge since January; AUDUSD gains momentum after US CPI data, eyeing 100-day moving average.

2023-11-10

Discover the latest insights and trends in the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD currency pairs. Get a technical analysis of the key biases, risks, and targets, along with the longer-term daily chart outlook. Stay updated on the current market movements and potential directional breaks.

2023-09-16

The
week ahead is dominated by central bank meetings. Six of the G10 central banks
meets. The post-Covid monetary tightening cycle is ending. The start was not
synchronized, and neither will be end. It is tempting to think that those that
began the tightening cycle early will among the first to finish. Among emerging
markets that is true for Brazil and Chile, both of whom have begun cutting
rates. And Brazil is likely to deliver the second cut in the new easing cycle,
a few hours after the Federal Reserve meeting concludes this week. No G10
central bank appears to be close to reducing rates, but the tightening cycles
seen to be over or within a quarter point of the terminal rate. The UK may be
an exception, but even then, the market is not convinced, especially after
July’s GDP

2023-09-01

Overview: Beijing’s seemingly steady stream of
measures to support the economy and steady the yuan are beginning to produce
the desired effect. The yuan is snapping a four-week decline and the CSI 300
halted a three-week drop. Some economists estimate that the bevy of measures
may be worth as much as 1% for GDP. The dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the
US employment data, which is expected to see the pace of job growth slow to
around 170k. Of note, the Mexican peso extended yesterday’s losses following
news that the central bank was winding down its forward hedge program. After
the peso dropped 1.75% yesterday, it is off another 0.7% today. 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose for the fifth consecutive session today and the Stoxx 600 gain (~0.4%) is
recouping the losses of the past two

2023-08-15

Overview: Today’s highlights include a surprise rate
cut from China after another series of disappointing data and much stronger
than expected Japanese Q2 GDP (6% annualized pace). The UK reported an
unexpected sharp jump in average weekly earnings, which were sufficient to get
renew speculation of a 50 bp hike by the Bank of England next month. The US
dollar is mixed. The Swedish krona and dollar-bloc currencies are struggling,
while the Swiss franc and sterling are leading the other European currencies
higher. The yen is slightly lower and is threatening to extend its losing
streak for the seventh consecutive session. Gold is holding above yesterday’s
low, which was slightly below $1903, but the upside has been capped near $1908.
Stocks and bonds are selling
off. China’s 10-year bond

2023-08-14

AUDUSD trades to new low for the year, but momentum fades. Can buyers take back control?

2023-08-12

Tuesday
marks the 52nd anniversary of the end of Bretton Woods currency arrangement,
which pegged the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar. Some
economists have tried framing their views in terms of Bretton Woods II and
there have even been proponents of Bretton Woods III, but these are informal
arrangements at best, no reciprocity, or mutual obligations. The point of the
matter is that the end of Bretton Woods ushered in the modern era of floating
currencies, which in practice has meant volatile exchange rates.One of the big picture ideas from
international relations is hegemonic stability theory. It sees capitalism
working best when there is one country that can set and enforce international
rules of engagement. The attempts to resurrect Bretton Woods miss the insight