Tag Archive: SPY

FX Weekly Preview: Synthetic FX View — Macro and Prices

2017-08-14

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2017-08-14

Economic data due out are unlikely to change macro views. Swiss franc's price action suggests some return to "normalcy" despite rhetoric remaining elevated. Sterling's 3.25 cent drop against the dollar looks over.

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FX Daily, August 10: Tensions Remain Elevated, Dollar Firms

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

It is difficult to walk back the saber-rattling rhetoric. US Secretary of State Tillerson tried to defuse the situation, which had appeared to ease nerves in North America yesterday. However, references to the modernization of US nuclear forces, a multi-year project begun last year, spurred a fresh threat by North Korea to fire four intermediate range missiles near Guam in week's time.

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Global Asset Allocation Update: Not Yet

2017-07-18

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2017-07-18

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month’s update. The change is minor though and within the range of what we’ve seen in recent months.

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FX Daily, June 29: Run on Dollar and Yen Continues

2017-06-29

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2017-06-29

The main driver of the foreign exchange market is the continued reassessment of the trajectory of monetary policy in the UK, EMU, and Canada. The OIS market does not show that higher rates are discounted for the next policy meeting (August, September, and July respectively), but rather there is greater confidence that, outside of Japan, peak monetary stimulus is behind us.

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FX Daily, May 26: Anxiety Levels Rise Ahead of Weekend

2017-05-26

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2017-05-26

The markets are unsettled. It is not so much in the magnitude of moves as the breadth of the move. The nearly 1% rally in gold is a tell, but also the inability of equity market to follow the lead of the US markets, where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new records. US yields are softer, and the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, up 0.7% against the greenback.

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Great Graphic: OIl and the S&P 500

2017-05-26

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2017-05-26

S&P 500 Index, May 2017
The fluctuation of oil prices is often cited as an important factor driving equities. Our work shows that this is not always the case and that the correlation between the price of oil and the S&P 500 continues to ease.

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FX Daily, May 25: Euro Strength more than Dollar Weakness

2017-05-25

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2017-05-25

The Dollar Index is heavy, just above the lows set earlier this week set near 96.80. However, this exaggerates the dollar's weakness because the weight of the euro and currencies that shadow it, like the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. As the North American session is about to start, the dollar is higher against the dollar-bloc currencies and the Japanese yen.

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FX Daily, May 18: Some Respite from US Politics as Sterling Surges Through $1.30

2017-05-18

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2017-05-18

Yesterday's dramatic response to the political maelstrom in Washington is over. The appointment of a special counsel to head up the FBI's investigation into Russia's attempt to influence the US election appears to have acted a circuit breaker of sorts. It is not sufficient to boost confidence that the Trump Administrations economic program is back the front burners, but it is sufficient to stem the time for the moment.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Drivers

2017-05-08

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2017-05-08

US retail sales and CPI should help bolster confidence that the Fed was right about the transitory nature of Q1 slowdown. Bank of England meets; Forbes will likely continue with her dissent, but likely failed to convince her other colleagues of the merit of an immediate rate hike. French politics are center stage, but German state election and South Korea's national election are also important.

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What is the Bank of Japan to Do?

2017-05-04

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2017-05-04

Policy is on hold. There is several areas which the BOJ can adjust its forecast or forward guidance. BOJ is more likely to err on the side of caution.

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FX Weekly Preview: What to Watch in the Week Ahead

2017-04-17

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2017-04-17

Many observers misunderstood US President Trump's "American First" rhetoric. Trump's earlier writings show that this is not a reference to the 1940s effort to keep the US out of WWII, with its isolationist tint. Rather, Trump's use goes back to the original use by President Harding in the 1920s. It was a rejection of the Wilsonian multilateralism (e.g. League of Nations) and a robust defense of unilateralism.

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Euro’s Record Losing Streak Against the Yen

2017-04-15

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2017-04-15

Euro/Yen
The euro has fallen for 11 consecutive sessions against the yen. Interest rates, US and German in particular, seem to be the main driver. Technicals are stretched, but have not signaled a reversal yet.

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FOMC Minutes Suggest Balance Sheet May Begin Shrinking This Year

2017-04-12

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2017-04-12

FOMC minutes increased likelihood that Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet late this year. There does not seem to be a consensus on other issues. The strength of the ADP report contrasts with softness seen in the ISM and PMI non-manufacturing surveys.

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FX Daily, March 28: Prospects for Turnaround Tuesday?

2017-03-28

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2017-03-28

The slide in the US dollar and US interest rates faded in the North American session on Monday. US participants also had a fairly relaxed initial response to news that after years of complaining, the Republicans could not agree on an alternative to the Affordable Care Act.

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FX Daily, March 03: Yellen and Jobs Report Last Two Hurdles to US Hike

2017-03-03

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2017-03-03

The US dollar is narrowly mixed as Yellen's speech in Chicago is awaited. The greenback's three-day advance against the euro and four-day advance against the yen is at risk. The dollar-bloc currencies, where speculators in the futures market had gone net long, continue to underperform.

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FX Daily, February 21: Dollar Bounces Back

2017-02-21

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2017-02-21

FX Performance February 21 2017 Movers and Shakers
Some profit-taking in the middle of last week pushed the dollar lower and gave rise in some quarters that the run was over. However, the greenback has come back the bid. It is gaining against all the major currencies today and most of the emerging market currencies.

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