Tag Archive: SPY

FX Daily, February 16: Worst Week for the Dollar since 2015-2016, While Stocks Continue to Recover

Nearly all the major currencies have risen at least two percent against the US dollar this week. The Canadian dollar is an exception. It has risen one percent this week ahead of today's local session. Sterling is becoming another exception after disappointing retail sales. It is up just shy of two percent. The Dollar Index is off 2.3% on the week, which would be the biggest weekly loss since 2015.

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FX Daily, February 15: Stocks Jump, Bonds Dump, and the Dollar Slumps

The significant development this week has been the recovery of equities after last week's neck-breaking drop, while yields have continued to rise. The dollar has taken is cues from the risk-on impulse from the equity market and the sales of US bonds more than the resulting higher yields. Asia followed US equities higher.

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FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize

There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week without some kind of follow through and knock-on effects. Moreover, the focus today on US CPI may prove for nought.

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Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

The relationship between stocks and bonds does not appear to have changed much. It is difficult to eyeball correlations. Question the meaning of a chart that has two time series and two scales and.

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FX Daily, February 13: Tuesday’s Two Developments

There are two important developments today. First, the recovery in the global equity markets is being challenged. Second, the yen has strengthened across the board, and is now at its best levels against the dollar since last September's low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended Monday's recovery with another 0.5% gain. However, looking closer, the momentum faltered.

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FX Daily, February 12: Equity Markets Find Firmer Footing, Dollar Softens

The most important development today has been the stability in the equity markets after last week's meltdown. The recovery from new lows in the US before the weekend set the tone for today's moves. Tokyo markets were on holiday, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan snapped a seven-day slide with a nearly 0.6% gain.

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FX Daily, February 09: Equity Sell-Off Extends to Asia, but More Muted in Europe

The 100-point slide in the S&P 500 and the 1000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials yesterday spurred more bloodletting in Asia. The 1.8% drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (for a 6.7% loss for the week) may conceal the magnitude of the regional losses. At one point the CSI 300 of the large Chinese mainland shares was off more than 6% before closing off 4.3% (and 10% for the week). The H-shares index was down 3.9% and 12% for the week.

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FX Daily, February 07: Guns and Butter May Resolve US Legislative Logjam

After a volatile session in North America, the major equity indices closed higher. In fact, the 1.75% rise in the S&P 500 was the best since November 2016. Asian equities stabilized, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was able to eke out a small gain. The European markets are moving higher is also posting early gains and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.45%, which threatens to snap the seven-day slide. However, the main challenge now is that the S&P...

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FX Daily, February 06: Recovering US Equities Puts Floor Under Europe after Asia Tanks

After the dramatic fall in US equities, Asian equities followed suit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 3.4% following Monday's slide of 1.7%. European bourses gapped lower and spent most of the morning moving higher, though large gaps remain. At its worst, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was off about 3.3%, and at the time of this writing, it is half as much. US equities initially extended yesterday's losses, but the S&P 500 has turned higher in the...

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Great Graphic: European Equities Lead Move

European equities peaked earlier and have fallen the furthest. MSCI EM equities faring the best, and as of now, they are still up on the year. MSCI Asia Pacific fell 3.4% today and is now down 0.33% for the year.

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FX Daily, January 17: Dollar Stabilizes After Marginal New Lows

After a shallow bounce in Asia and Europe yesterday, the dollar slipped lower in North American yesterday. Asia was happy to extend those dollar losses, and the greenback was pushed to marginal new lower in Asia, but has come back in the European session. The next result is a choppy but flattish consolidation compared with last week's closing prices.

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FX Daily, January 05: Dollar Given Reprieve Ahead of Employment Report

As the US dollar finished last year, so too did it begin the New Year, and after extending its losses, the bears have paused. Technical factors had been stretched, but it appears to have been old-fashioned macroeconomic considerations to have helped the dollar to move off the mat. Quickly summarized, these considerations are a larger than expected Australian trade deficit, slippage in Japan's service sector PMI, a larger than expected drop in the...

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FX Daily, December 08: Brexit Talks Move to Stage II, While Greenback Remains Firm

Sufficient progress will be judged to have been made, and negotiations of the separation between the UK and EU will be allowed to enter the second stage. The formal decision will be made at next week's EU summit. To be sure, "sufficient progress," which the diplomatic-speak that does not mean that any agreement has really been reached, but rather that the UK has made a few concessionary signals.

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FX Daily, December 07: Equities and Oil Stabilize

Global equities are stabilizing today after the recent downside pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped an eight-day slump with a 0.4% gain, led by a rebound in Tokyo and India. European markets are firm, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up around 0.25% near midday in London. All sectors are higher but telecom and real estate are performing best, while energy and health care are laggards.

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FX Daily, December 06: Equity Slump Continues, Lifts Bonds, Bolsters Yen

The swoon in equities, perhaps sparked by a rotation spurred by potential US tax changes, is continuing today. It is providing a risk-off mood, which is expressed in the foreign exchange market as a stronger yen. The most compelling answer of yen strength is not that investors are buying yen as a haven.

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FX Daily, December 05: Sterling Sold on Negotiating Snafu, Aussie Bounces on Retail Sales and RBA

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and yen, straddling unchanged levels in the Asian session and the European morning. The action in elsewhere. The British pound is the weakest of the majors, paring 0.4% against the greenback, though around $1.3425, it can hardly be considered weak. A month ago, sterling was a few cents lower. Still, its gains reflected two things: broader dollar weakness and optimism on Brexit talks.

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FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads

Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6% on the month. It is the second monthly advance after a June-August swoon. The benchmark is closing in on the high for the year set in May.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Markets and the Long Shadow of Politics

Rise in paper asset prices, including so-called cyber currencies, reflects the abundance of capital. Have we forgotten what Minski taught again? Political considerations may dominate ahead of the ECB meeting later this month.

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FX Daily, September 28: Greenback Consolidates while Yields Continue to March Higher

The US dollar is consolidating inside yesterday's ranges against the euro and yen while extending its gains against sterling and the dollar-bloc currencies. The sell-off in the US debt market continues to drag global yields higher. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 2.01% on September 8 and now, nearly three weeks later, is near 2.35%. It had finished last week at 2.25%.

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