Tag Archive: SPY

FX Daily, May 01: Little Help on May Day

Most of the world's financial centers are closed for the May Day holiday, but the lack of participation has not prevented the extension of the US dollar's recovery. The Dollar Index has traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year.

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FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday

Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash transaction.

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FX Daily, April 27: Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016. The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start. Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive month in which the Dollar Index fell in only one week. That translates into rising 10 of the past 13 weeks.

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FX Daily, April 25: Dollar Regains Luster, but Consolidation Likely Ahead of Key Events and Data

The US dollar reversed lower yesterday after US yields softened and equities tumbled. However, the greenback has bounced back, and has extended its gains against the major currencies except the euro and sterling. The on-the-run and generic US 10-year yields are edging above 3%.

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FX Daily, April 24: Stalled US Rates Steal Greenback’s Thunder

The US dollar looked set to launch a new leg higher, but rates stalled, which in turn is unleashing some mild corrective pressures. The US two-year yield has been unable to extend its increase beyond 2.50%, while the 10-year rate has stalled within a whisker of the 3% psychological threshold. The greenback's momentum did indeed carry it, but by late morning on the Continent, a consolidative tone was evident.

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FX Daily, April 23: Rising Rates Help Extend Dollar Gains

The new week has begun much like last week ended, with rising rates helping to extend the dollar's recent gains. The US 10-year yield is flirting with the 3.0% threshold. The two-year yield is firmer, and, like in the second half of last week, the US curve is becoming a little less flat. The market, as we had anticipated, was not so impressed with North Korea's measures, and Korea's Kospi edged lowed, and the region-leading KOSDAQ fell a little...

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FX Weekly Preview: Markets and Macro

Worries about a trade war appear to have eased, at least for the moment, but that does not make investors worry-free. The concerns have shifted toward rising US interest rates, perhaps more than anything else, but general anxiety seems elevated.

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FX Daily, April 18: Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against major and most emerging market currencies. Sterling, which has become a market darling, hit an air pocket after softer than expected CPI. UK headline CPI rose 0.1% in March, while the market expected a 0.3% increase. The recently introduced preferred measure, CPIH slipped to 2.3% from 2.5%, the weakest in a year.

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FX Daily, April 13: Markets Struggle to Find Footing while News Stream Improves

It had looked to many investors that world was headed for a trade war and an escalating risk war in Syria. But now it seems less clear. US President Trump's rhetoric on trade took a more constructive tone, and a divided Administration leaves Syria in a bit of a limbo. US equities rallied yesterday, and Asia and European bourses are advancing today, but the conviction may not be particularly strong.

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FX Daily, April 11: Mr Market Waits for Other Shoe to Drop

Between Syria, trade tensions, and the US special investigator into Russia's attempt to influence the US election, market participants are cautious as they wait for another shoe to drop. The US equity market recovery yesterday has short coattails as markets in Asia and Europe struggle. Bond yields are mostly softer, and the US 10-year note yield is dipping back below 1.80%.

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FX Daily, April 10: XI’s Day, but Not So Good for Putin

It did not look so good. The S&P 500 fell about 1.65% in the last couple hours of trading yesterday paring its gains. Press reports indicated that President Trump's lawyer's office, house and hotel were the subject of search warrants. A Bloomberg report citing people who knew said that China would consider devaluing the yuan.

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US Jobs Data Optics Disappoint, but Signal Unchanged

The US jobs growth slowed in March more than expected, but the details of the report suggest investors and policymakers will look through it. The poor weather seemed to have played a role. Construction jobs fell (15k) for the first time since last July, and the hours worked by production employees and non-supervisory worker slipped.

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FX Daily, April 09: Asian and European Equities Shrug Off US Decline

US shares slumped before the weekend amid concern that Trump Administration was prepared to escalate the trade tensions with China. However, cooler heads are prevailing, and there is a recognition that the conflict is still in the posturing phase. No sanctions have gone to into effect. As the Economist points out, nearly 100 of the Chinese products the US proposed slap a tariff on are not currently being exported to the US. The US has a 60-day...

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Great Graphic: Has the Dollar Bottomed Against the Yen?

The US dollar appears to be carving a low against the yen. After a significant fall, investor ought to be sensitive to bottoming patterns. The first tell was the key reversal on March 26. In this case, the key reversal was when the dollar made a new low for the move (~JPY104.55) and then rallied to close above the previous session high.

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FX Daily, April 06: Trade Trumps Jobs

Trade and equity market volatility, which are not completely separate, continue to dominate investors' interest. Many had come around to accept that while trade tensions were running high, it was likely to be mostly posturing. This conclusion may have helped lift the S&P 500 around 3% over the past three sessions.

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FX Daily, April 05: Investors Find Comfort in Brinkmanship Blinks

Global equity markets are higher, following the stunning recovery in the US yesterday, where the S&P 500 rallied 76 points or 3% from its lows to it highs, near where it finished. The outside up day is seeing following through today. Without China and Hong Kong, which are on holiday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-day down draft and closed 0.55% higher.

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FX Daily, April 04: Trade Specificities Rattle Markets

Late yesterday, the US announced that specific tariffs and goods that would be targeted for intellectual property violations. China had warned of a commensurate response and earlier today made its announcement. This sent reverberations through the capital markets, driving down equities, corn and soybean prices (subject to Chinese tariffs). The US dollar was sold, especially against the yen, euro, and sterling.

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FX Daily, April 03: Markets in Search of Footing

The sell-off in US tech shares dragged the market lower. The S&P 500 fell for the sixth session of the past eight and closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a couple of years. The sell-off in Asia and Europe is more muted. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped less than 0.1%. The Hang Seng, an index of H-shares, and Korea's KOSDAQ managed post gains.

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FX Daily, April 02: Monday Blues

The US dollar drifted a little lower in Asia to start the week while equities had a slightly heavier bias. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%. European bourses are mostly closed for the extended Easter holiday, while the S&P is set to start the new quarter about 0.3% lower. Although the subdued price action may not reflect it, there have been several new economic reports and developments.

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FX Daily, March 28: Three Developments Shaping Month-End

Today may be the last day of full liquidity until next Tuesday, after the Easter holidays. We identify three developments that are characterizing the end of the month, quarter, and for some countries and companies, the fiscal year. Equity market sell-off, bond market rally, and the continued rise in LIBOR.

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