Tag Archive: Chart Update

Too Much Bubble-Love, Likely to Bring Regret

2018-02-02

Readers may recall our recent articles on the blow-off move in the stock market, entitled Punch-Drunk Investors and Extinct Bears (see Part 1 & Part 2 for the details). Bears remained firmly extinct as of last week – in fact, some of the sentiment indicators we are keeping tabs on have become even more stretched, as incredible as that may sound. For instance, assets in bullish Rydex funds exceeded bear assets by a factor of more than 37 at one...

Read More »

As the Controlled Inflation Scheme Rolls On

2018-01-21

by MN Gordon

2018-01-21

American consumers are not only feeling good. They are feeling great. They are borrowing money – and spending it – like tomorrow will never come. On Monday the Federal Reserve released its latest report of consumer credit outstanding. According to the Fed’s bean counters, U.S. consumers racked up $28 billion in new credit card debt and in new student, auto, and other non-mortgage loans in November.

Read More »

Punch-Drunk Investors & Extinct Bears, Part 2

2018-01-20

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-01-20

Rydex Bull/Bear Asset Ratio and Total Bear Assets, 2003 - 2018

For many years we have heard that the poor polar bears were in danger of dying out due to global warming. A fake photograph of one of the magnificent creatures drifting aimlessly in the ocean on a break-away ice floe was reproduced thousands of times all over the internet. In the meantime it has turned out that polar bears are doing so well, they are considered a quite dangerous plague in some regions in Alaska.

Read More »

Punch-Drunk Investors & Extinct Bears, Part 1

2018-01-17

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-01-17

We didn’t really plan on writing about investor sentiment again so soon, but last week a few articles in the financial press caught our eye and after reviewing the data, we thought it would be a good idea to post a brief update. When positioning and sentiment reach levels that were never seen before after the market has gone through a blow-off move for more than a year, it may well be that it means something for once.

Read More »

Quantum Change in Gold Demand Continues – Precious Metals Supply-Demand Report

2018-01-09

by Keith Weiner

2018-01-09

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

Read More »

Gold and Gold Stocks – Patterns, Cycles and Insider Activity, Part 2

2018-01-05

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-01-05

Another recurring pattern consists of the seasonally strong period in gold around the turn of the year, which is bisected by a mid to late December interim low in the gold price. An additional boost can be expected in January and Feburary from the strong seasonal uptrend in silver and platinum group metals as well (to see the seasonal PGM charts, scroll down to our addendum to this recent article by Dimitri Speck).

Read More »

Gold and Gold Stocks – Patterns, Cycles and Insider Activity, Part 1

2017-12-31

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-12-31

Repeating Patterns and Positioning A noteworthy confluence of patterns in gold and gold stocks is in evidence this year. At the close of trading on December 26, the HUI Index has given a (tentative) buy signal by completing a unique chart pattern, which is why we decided to briefly discuss the situation.

Read More »

How the Asset Bubble Could End – Part 2

2017-12-23

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-12-23

There is just one more positioning indicator we want to mention: after surging by around $126 billion since March of 2016, NYSE margin debt has reached a new all time high of more than $561 billion. The important point about this is that margin debt normally peaks well before the market does. Based on this indicator, one should not expect major upheaval anytime soon. There are exceptions to the rule though – see the caption below the chart.

Read More »

How the Asset Bubble Could End – Part 1

2017-12-22

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-12-22

We recently pondered the markets while trying out our brand-new electric soup-cooling spoon (see below). We are pondering the markets quite often lately, because we believe tail risk has grown by leaps and bounds and we may be quite close to an important juncture, i.e., the kind of pivot that can generate both a lot of excitement and a lot of regret all around.

Read More »

The Stock Market and the FOMC

2017-12-16

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-12-16

Dow Price in Dollars and Gold, 1800 - 2017

As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event study of the average (or seasonal) performance across a...

Read More »

What’s the Point? Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

2017-12-06

by Keith Weiner

2017-12-06

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

Read More »

Japan: It isn’t What the Media Tell You

2017-12-01

by Jayant Bhandari

2017-12-01

For the past few decades, Japan has been known for its stagnant economy, falling stock market, and most importantly its terrible demographics. For almost three decades, Japan’s GDP growth has mostly been less than 2%, has been negative for several of these years, and has often hovered close to zero. The net result is that its GDP is almost at the same level as 25 years ago.

Read More »

Business Cycles and Inflation, Part II

2017-11-22

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-11-22

We recently received the following charts via email with a query whether they should worry stock market investors. They show two short term interest rates, namely the 2-year t-note yield and 3 month t-bill discount rate. Evidently the moves in short term rates over the past ~18 – 24 months were quite large, even if their absolute levels remain historically low.

Read More »

Inflation and Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2017-11-21

by Keith Weiner

2017-11-21

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

Read More »

The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday

2017-11-10

by Dimitri Speck

2017-11-10

Known and Unknown Anomalies. Readers are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequently observed weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely known anomalies, there are many others though, which most investors have never heard of.

Read More »

Credit Spreads: The Coming Resurrection of Polly

2017-11-09

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-11-09

Suspicion isn’t Merely Asleep – It is in a Coma (or Dead). There is an old Monty Python skit about a parrot whose lack of movement and refusal to respond to prodding leads to an intense debate over what state it is in. Is it just sleeping, as the proprietor of the shop that sold it insists? A very tired parrot taking a really deep rest?

Read More »

Falling Interest Rates

2017-10-27

by Keith Weiner

2017-10-27

US 10 Year Treasury Yield, Jan 1981 - 2017

Amassing Unproductive Debt.Last week, we discussed the marginal productivity of debt. This is how much each newly-borrowed dollar adds to GDP. And ever since the interest rate began its falling trend in 1981, marginal productivity of debt has tightly correlated with interest. The lower the interest rate, the less productive additional borrowing has in fact become.

Read More »

Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

2017-09-29

by Keith Weiner

2017-09-29

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

Read More »

21st Century Shoe-Shine Boys

2017-09-16

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-09-16

Anecdotal Flags are Waved. “If a shoeshine boy can predict where this market is going to go, then it’s no place for a man with a lot of money to lose.” – Joseph Kennedy It is actually a true story as far as we know – Joseph Kennedy, by all accounts an extremely shrewd businessman and investor (despite the fact that he had graduated in economics*), really did get his shoes shined on Wall Street one fine morning, and the shoe-shine boy, one Pat...

Read More »

Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2017-09-13

by Keith Weiner

2017-09-13

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

Read More »