Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss Retail Sales -2.6 percent nominal (YoY) and -2.2 percent real (YoY)

2016-09-01

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2016-09-01

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.6% in nominal terms in July 2016 compared with the previous year. This decrease has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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KOF Economic Barometer August: A Dip below the 100 Points Level

2016-09-01

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2016-09-01

The KOF Economic Barometer, with a current reading of 99.8, showed a drop of 3.7 points in August 2016 (from revised 103.5 in July). The Barometer fell just below its long-term average for the first time since December 2015. The outlook for the Swiss economy is less upbeat than one month ago, returning to its long-term average path.

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator July: Car buyers turn on cruise control

2016-09-01

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2016-09-01

In July, the UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.32 points from 1.21. A slight downward adjustment of the June figure and above-average car sales generated the increase. However, the disappointing June figures for tourism and sluggish consumer sentiment slightly curbed this upward trend.

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Spain’s Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

Rajoy is hoping to form a minority government this week. It seems unlikely to succeed, which could lead to an election on Christmas. Regional elections and corruption trials may change Spain's political dynamics.

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Swiss national accounts 2015: Slow GDP growth in 2015

2016-08-28

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2016-08-28

In 2015 the Swiss economy registered a growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.8% at the previous year's prices (+2.0% in 2014). Taking a slight decrease in the general price level into account, GDP at current prices grew by 0.3% (2014: +1.4%). This modest increase is in keeping with a difficult monetary environment. The gross national income (GNI) at current prices registered an increase of 1.6% following an improved balance of income with...

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Swiss Industrial Production Q2: Minus 1.2 percent YoY, Construction: Minus 4.1 percent YoY

2016-08-27

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2016-08-27

Industrial production in the secondary sector declined 1.6% in 2nd quarter 2016 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover fell by 2.6%.

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Swiss Exports + 7.9 percent YoY, Imports +11.8 percent. Trade Surplus +2.9 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

2016-08-23

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2016-08-23

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to neighbours. In July 2016, Swiss Exports were up 7.9% YoY (in real terms: + 2.4%) and imports 11.8% YoY (in real terms: + 8.2%). Exporters could even raise prices, as we see in the difference...

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2016: Number of employed persons + 1.6%; unemployment rate (ILO) 4.3%

2016-08-22

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2016-08-22

The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.6% between the 2nd quarter 2015 and the 2nd quarter 2016. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 9.5% to 8.6%. These are some of the survey results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, July 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.8 percent YoY

2016-08-15

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2016-08-15

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in July 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.8 points (base December 2015 = 100). This slight decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and watches. Compared with July 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.8%. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Nominal Wages to Rise by 0.8 Percent

2016-08-11

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2016-08-11

The unions are demanding higher salaries for next year. However, gains are realistic only in individual sectors. In addition, can be expected in Switzerland with a lower purchasing power gain. The workers umbrella organization Travail Suisse and the association Employees Switzerland have launched the 2017 wage round on Tuesday.

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Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index 2Q 2016 continues falling, Still in Risk Zone

2016-08-10

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2016-08-10

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index nudged down in 2Q 2016 to 1.32 points and thus remains in the risk zone. This second drop in a row was due to house prices falling in real terms and the declining momentum of mortgage growth. Investments in real estate remain popular due to low interest rates.

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Switzerland Unemployment in July 2016: Remained unchanged at 3.1 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 3.3 percent

2016-08-09

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2016-08-09

At the end of July 2016 there were 139'310 registered as unemployed, 183 more than last month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.1% in June. Compared to the previous month, unemployment increased by 5'556 persons (+ 4.2%). Seasonally adjusted 3.3%, one year ago 3.2%.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2016: -0.2 percent against 2015, -0.4 percent against last month

2016-08-08

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2016-08-08

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in July 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.3 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.2% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Statistics on tourist accommodation in June and in the first half of 2016: Overnight stays decline in first half-year and in June

2016-08-05

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2016-08-05

The hotel sector registered 16.8 million overnight stays in Switzerland during the first sixth months of 2016. This represents a decrease of 1.2% (-199,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 9.1 million overnight stays, foreign demand showed a drop of 2.5% (-234,000). Domestic visitors registered 7.7 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 0.5% (+36,000).

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Swiss Consumer Sentiment Remains Subdued

2016-08-04

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2016-08-04

Consumer sentiment remained unchanged between April and July 2016* and is now below the long-term average for the fifth quarter in a row. Most sub-indices also saw no major change, except regarding inflation, with the 1,200 or so individuals questioned expecting prices to rise more sharply over the next twelve months than they had in April.

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Swiss Retail Sales -4.6 percent nominal (YoY) and -3.9 percent real (YoY)

2016-08-02

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2016-08-02

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 4.6% in nominal terms in June 2016 compared with the previous year. The decline has been ongoing since January 2015. This is the largest decline since January 2003. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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KOF Economic Barometer July: Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised from 102.4). Thus the Barometer has been standing above the historical average since February this year. Despite the outcome of the vote in the United Kingdom and various other geopolitical risks, the...

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June: Summer tourism inspires confidence

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

In June, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.24 to 1.34 points. This was mainly due to a better performance in the tourism industry as well as a slight improvement in sentiment in the retail trade. However, the situation in the labor market is still strained and is weighing on consumer sentiment.

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European Court of Justice Ruling Weighs on Italian Banks

2016-07-19

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2016-07-19

ECJ uphold principle of bailing in junior creditors before the use of public funds. Italian banks shares snap a three-day advance. The EBA/ECB stress test results at the end of next week are the next big event.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, June 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -1.0 percent YoY

2016-07-14

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2016-07-14

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). Whereas the Producer Price Index declined by 0.2%, the Import Price Index rose by 0.8%. The slight increase of the overall index is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with June 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.0%.

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