Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss real estate market UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index 3Q 2016

2016-11-03

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2016-11-03

Switzerland UBS Real Estate Bubble Index
Risks to the Swiss property market remained elevated in the three months through September, according to UBS Group AG’s quarterly index. “While the buy-to-rent price ratio reached an all-time high, moderate mortgage growth and the slightly-improved economy prevented imbalances in the owner-occupied housing market from widening,” it said in a report.

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Great Graphic: Sentix Shows a Shift

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

Sentix Euro Break-up Index: Greece and Italy
The risk that the eurozone implodes over the next year has risen, but is still modest. Italy has surpassed Greece as the most likely candidate. The December referendum is the second part of Renzi's political reforms.

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Swiss Retail Sales -2.7 percent nominal (YoY) and -2.3 percent real (YoY)

2016-11-01

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2016-11-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2016
Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 2.3% in September 2016 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered an increase of 0.2%.

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When It Comes To Household Income, Sweden & Germany Rank With Kentucky

2016-11-01

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2016-11-01

Annual Median Equivalized Disposable Household Income in USD
Last year, I posted an article titled "If Sweden and Germany Became US States, They Would be Among the Poorest States" which, produced a sizable and heated debate, including that found in the comments below this article at The Washington Post. The reason for the controversy, of course, is that it has nearly reached the point of dogma with many leftists that European countries enjoy higher standards of living thanks to more government regulation and...

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KOF Economic Barometer October: Index is Climbing

2016-10-28

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2016-10-28

KOF Economic Barometer October 2016
KOF Economic Barometer rose by 3.1 points (from revised 101.6 in September) to 104.7. It thus recovered from its recent summer trough of below the 100 points and stands as high as for the last time in January 2014. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss suggests above potential short-term growth rates.

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator September: Confidence despite weakness in retail

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, September 2016
The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.53 to 1.59 points in September. The positive trend continues and points to further growth in private consumption for the fourth quarter. The driving forces are new vehicle registrations, which are at a record level, and the upsurge in domestic tourism in August.

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Great Graphic: Italian Banks and a German Bank

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

DB and Italian bank stocks have been moving in tandem. They suffer from fundamentally different problems. The euro has been selling off as the bank shares rebound.

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Swiss Quarterly Trade Surplus over 10 bn CHF for the First Time. Exports + 8.1 percent YoY, Imports +7.9 percent in Q3/2016.

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF) September 2016
In the third quarter of 2016, the Swiss quarterly trade surplus rose over 10 bn. CHF for the first time in history. Exports rose by 8.1% and Imports by 7.9%.

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The ECB Made A Mistake During Its Daily Bond Purchases

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

Something unexpected happened when the ECB released its latest bond purchase data at during its scheduled release time on Monday: in addition to the purchase of at least 20 separate corporate bonds under the bank's CSPP bond buying program during the week ended October 14, amounting to a total of €1.84 billion, which lifted the number of securities held by the central bank to 660, bringing the total to amount of its holdings to €33.8 billion, or...

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Swiss cross-border shopping declines

2016-10-15

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2016-10-15

Lidl
Residents of German-speaking Switzerland appear to doing less shopping across the border, something that has also been observed in Geneva. According to the newspaper the Handelszeitung, Swiss cross-border shopping peaked in 2015 and local customs posts have seen a decline in VAT and duty collected since March.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, September 2016: +0.3 percent MoM, -0.1 percent YoY

2016-10-14

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2016-10-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2016
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2016 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.7 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with September 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.1%.

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Swiss nominal and minimum wages increase by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

Changes in Swiss Nominal and Minimum Wages
The social partners signing the collective labour agreements (CLA) have agreed a nominal rise in real wages estimated at 0.4% for 2016, of which 0.2% is to be awarded collectively and 0.2% at individual level. Minimum wages were increased by 0.7%. The graph shows nominal wages since 1993.

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Great Graphic: US-German 2-Yr Differential and the Euro

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction.

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Deutsche Bank CEO Returns Home Empty-Handed After Failing To Reach ‘Deal’ With DOJ: Bild

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

Following the seemingly endless procession of short-squeeze-fueling trial balloons last week - from settlement rumors to German blue-chip bailouts to Qatari investors - Germany's Bild newspaper confirms the rumors that sparked weakness on Friday: Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan has failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index 0.1 percent MoM, -0.2 percent YoY

2016-10-06

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2016-10-06

We often look at parts of the CPI. For example food inflation is relevant in emerging markets or poorer people in developed nations. Food inflation in Switzerland has risen by 1.3% YoY in August compared to 0.2% in the U.S., and 1.4% in the eurozone and 1.1% in neighbour Germany. Furtunately it has fallen again.

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Statistics on tourist accommodation in August 2016: Overnight stays decline in August 2016

2016-10-06

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2016-10-06

Switzerland Tourism by Country, August 2015 - August 2016
The Swiss hotel industry registered 4.1 million overnight stays in August 2016, which corresponds to a decrease of 1.0% (-43,000 overnight stays) compared with August 2015. Foreign visitors generated 2.4 million overnight stays, representing a decline of 2.8% (-69,000). Domestic visitors registered 1.7 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 1.5% (+26,000). These are provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Why Portugal Matters

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

DBRS reviews its investment grade rating of Portugal on Oct 21. A cut in its rating would have far reaching implications. A cut in the outlook is more likely than a cut the rating.

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Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility. We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements… but it would be controversial and we question the benefits. An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme.

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Swiss Retail Sales -2.9 percent nominal (YoY) and -3.0 percent real (YoY)

2016-10-03

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2016-10-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2016
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.9% in nominal terms in August 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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The Italian Dilemma

2016-10-01

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2016-10-01

Monte dei Paschi
The sudden panic about a potentially imminent Italian banking sector collapse back in July has somewhat subsided for now, but sooner or later the issue will inevitably rear its ugly head again.

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