Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss nominal and minimum wages increase by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

Changes in Swiss Nominal and Minimum Wages
The social partners signing the collective labour agreements (CLA) have agreed a nominal rise in real wages estimated at 0.4% for 2016, of which 0.2% is to be awarded collectively and 0.2% at individual level. Minimum wages were increased by 0.7%. The graph shows nominal wages since 1993.

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Great Graphic: US-German 2-Yr Differential and the Euro

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction.

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Deutsche Bank CEO Returns Home Empty-Handed After Failing To Reach ‘Deal’ With DOJ: Bild

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

Following the seemingly endless procession of short-squeeze-fueling trial balloons last week - from settlement rumors to German blue-chip bailouts to Qatari investors - Germany's Bild newspaper confirms the rumors that sparked weakness on Friday: Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan has failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index 0.1 percent MoM, -0.2 percent YoY

2016-10-06

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2016-10-06

We often look at parts of the CPI. For example food inflation is relevant in emerging markets or poorer people in developed nations. Food inflation in Switzerland has risen by 1.3% YoY in August compared to 0.2% in the U.S., and 1.4% in the eurozone and 1.1% in neighbour Germany. Furtunately it has fallen again.

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Statistics on tourist accommodation in August 2016: Overnight stays decline in August 2016

2016-10-06

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2016-10-06

Switzerland Tourism by Country, August 2015 - August 2016
The Swiss hotel industry registered 4.1 million overnight stays in August 2016, which corresponds to a decrease of 1.0% (-43,000 overnight stays) compared with August 2015. Foreign visitors generated 2.4 million overnight stays, representing a decline of 2.8% (-69,000). Domestic visitors registered 1.7 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 1.5% (+26,000). These are provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Why Portugal Matters

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

DBRS reviews its investment grade rating of Portugal on Oct 21. A cut in its rating would have far reaching implications. A cut in the outlook is more likely than a cut the rating.

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Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility. We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements… but it would be controversial and we question the benefits. An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme.

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Swiss Retail Sales -2.9 percent nominal (YoY) and -3.0 percent real (YoY)

2016-10-03

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2016-10-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2016
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.9% in nominal terms in August 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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The Italian Dilemma

2016-10-01

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2016-10-01

Monte dei Paschi
The sudden panic about a potentially imminent Italian banking sector collapse back in July has somewhat subsided for now, but sooner or later the issue will inevitably rear its ugly head again.

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Renzi and the Italian Referendum: Disruption Potential Minimized

2016-10-01

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2016-10-01

Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly. It will be held on December 4. The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies. Renzi's argument is that the political reform is necessary to make Italy governable. Italy has had 63 governments since the end of WWII. In order to address the economic challenges the country faces, political...

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KOF Economic Barometer September: Slight Recovery

2016-09-30

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2016-09-30

KOF Economic Barometer September 2016
The KOF Economic Barometer, with a current reading of 101.3, increased 1.6 points in September 2016 (from revised 99.7 in August). Therefore, the Economic Barometer recovered from its fall below the 100 points level that was witnessed last month and climbs just above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy remains stable, consistent … Continue reading »

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Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator August

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator
The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. This development was fueled by resurging tourism and above-average car sales for the month. However, the situation on the labor market casts a shadow on this rise.

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Swiss Exports + 7.0 percent YoY, Imports +8.4 percent. Trade Surplus +3 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

2016-09-20

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2016-09-20

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF)
We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. In August 2016, Swiss exports were up 7.0% YoY (in real terms: + 1.2%) and imports 8.4% YoY (in real terms: + 5.1%).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, August 2016: -0.3 percent MoM, -0.4 percent YoY

2016-09-13

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2016-09-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in August 2016 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.5 points (base December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and pharmaceutical products. Compared with August 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.4%.

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Swiss Real Estate: Empty dwellings back to 2001 levels

2016-09-12

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2016-09-12

On 1 June 2016, some 56,518 dwellings or 1.30% of all dwellings were unoccupied in Switzerland. Some 5436 more dwellings were empty than in the previous year, representing an increase of 11%. These are findings from the empty dwellings census of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Q2 GDP: +0.6 percent QoQ, +2.0 percent YoY

2016-09-07

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2016-09-07

Each quarter, the SECO estimates the GDP and its components. The main purpose of these estimations is to provide data that allow for an assessment of the cyclical development of the main macroeconomic aggregats in a timely adequate and credible manner.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2016: -0.1 percent against 2016, -0.1 percent against last month

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
We often look at parts of the CPI. For example food inflation is relevant in emerging markets or poorer people in developed nations. Food inflation in Switzerland has risen by 1.3% YoY compared to 0.2% in the U.S., and 1.4% in the eurozone and 1.1% in neighbour Germany. Rents are up +0.2% YoY. Existing Swiss rents are bound to interest rates; therefore they cannot follow the Swiss real estate boom yet.

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Tourism accommodation statistics in July 2016: Slight decline in overnight stays in July

2016-09-05

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2016-09-05

Switzerland Tourism by Country, July 2015 - July 2016
The Swiss hotel industry registered 4.1 million overnight stays in July 2016, which corresponds to a decrease of 0.4% (-18,000 overnight stays) compared with July 2015. Foreign visitors generated 2.3 million overnight stays, representing a decline of 2.0% (-46,000). Domestic visitors registered 1.8 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 1.6% (+29,000). These are provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Europe Debates The Burkini: “We Will Colonize You With Your Democratic Laws”

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

"We will colonize you with your democratic laws." — Yusuf al-Qaradawi, Egyptian Islamic cleric and chairman of the International Union of Muslim Scholars. "Beaches, like any public space, must be protected from religious claims. The burkini is an anti-social political project aimed in particular at subjugating women.

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