Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Weekly view – Fog warning

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2020: historic decline in exports and imports

2020-07-21

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2020-07-21

Switzerland Trade Balance, June 2020
Swiss foreign trade recorded a record decline in the second quarter of 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports plunged by 11.5% compared to the previous quarter and imports even by 16.0%. This result stems from the traffic collapse recorded in April in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, with May and June having regained some color. The trade balance closed with a record surplus of 9.6 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2020: -3.5 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

2020-07-14

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2020-07-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2020
14.07.2020 - The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.1 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products as well as petroleum and natural gas. Compared with June 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.5%.

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No lack of foreign tourism demand in 2019

2020-07-08

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2020-07-08

Saldo der Fremdenverkehrsbilanz
07.07.2020 - Foreign demand was strong in 2019. The income side of the tourism balance of payments grew, reaching a record level of CHF 17.8 billion. At the same time, people living in Switzerland did not increase their expenditure when travelling abroad, despite price conditions that were more favourable. The tourism balance of payments was negative at CHF -798 million, according to initial estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real

2020-06-30

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2020-06-30

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, May 2020
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 5.6% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 30.2% compared with the previous month.

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Weekly View – Alive and kicking

2020-06-25

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2020-06-25

In spite of renewed fears of coronavirus clusters in Beijing, data last week suggested the more consumer-oriented sides of the Chinese economy were tracking improvements in industry, with a year-on-year increase in auto sales in May. UK retail sales were also encouraging, but the biggest surprise came from the US where May’s 18% rise in retail sales month on month was double analysts’ expectations.

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Weekly View – Reality check

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), May 2020
After its historic setback of the previous month, foreign trade recovered a few colors in May 2020. Imports posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 9.8% to 13.6 billion francs; however, they are still below their March 2020 level. Although exports fell again (-1.2%), they eased compared to April. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.8 billion francs.

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Supplementary accommodation: 0.7 percent increase in overnight stays in 2019, but decrease in demand for holiday homes

2020-06-16

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2020-06-16

Monthly share of overnight stays in the hotel and para-hotel sectors in 2019
15.06.2020 - In 2019, supplementary accommodation posted a total of 16.7 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 0.7% compared with 2018. With 11.4 million units, Swiss visitors represented more than two-thirds of demand (68.6%), i.e. a rise of 2.4%. Foreign visitors registered a 2.8% decrease with 5.2 million units. With 4.4 million overnight stays (-3.8%), European visitors accounted for the majority of stays by foreign guests.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

2020-06-15

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2020-06-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2020
15.06.2020 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in May 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 97.6 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for pharmaceutical and chemical products as well as for petroleum products. Compared with May 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 4.5%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in May 2020: rose to 3.4percent, seasonally adjusted rose to 3.4percent

2020-06-09

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2020-06-09

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., May 2020
Registered unemployment in May 2020 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 155,998 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers at the end of May 2020, 2,585 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 3.3% in April 2020 to 3.4% in the reporting month. Unemployment rose by 54,628 people (+ 53.9%) compared to the same month in the previous year.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in May 2020: -1.3 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

2020-06-04

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2020-06-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, May 2020
04.06.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in May 2020 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.3 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –1.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Switzerland GDP Q1 2020: -2.6 percent QoQ, -1.3 percent YoY

2020-06-04

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2020-06-04

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q1 2020
Switzerland’s GDP fell by –2.6 % in the 1st quarter of 2020, after rising by +0.3% in the previous quarter. Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the measures to contain it, economic activity in March was severely restricted. The international economic slump also slowed down exports.

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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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Swiss Trade Balance April 2020: foreign trade collapses

2020-05-26

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2020-05-26

Switzerland Trade Balance, April 2020
Compared with the previous month, April 2020 exports contracted by 11.7% (actual: -10.0%); this is the largest seasonally adjusted decline ever recorded. They retracted by 2.2 billion to reach 16.7 billion francs. Imports even plunged by 21.9%, that is, by a drop of 3.5 billion francs, to 12.4 billion francs (actual: -17.8%); they thus fell almost to their July 2005 level. The trade balance closed with a record monthly surplus of 4.3 billion francs.

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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis

2020-05-20

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2020-05-20

US policymakers’ bold actions in response to the coronavirus bear some traces of the free-wheeling deficits, repressed interest rates and central bank activism (money creation) that form the cornerstones of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) playbook.

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House View, May 2020

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2020: -4.0 percent YoY, -1.3 percent MoM

2020-05-14

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2020-05-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, April 2020
14.05.2020 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in April 2020 by 1.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.1 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas. Compared with April 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 4.0%.

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7.9 billion hours worked in 2019

2020-05-13

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2020-05-13

12.05.2020 - In 2019, people spent 7.929 billion hours working. Between 2014 and 2019, the actual weekly hours worked by full-time employees fell by 15 minutes on average, reaching 41 hours and 2 minutes. At the same time, the number of weeks of annual holiday continued its gradual increase to 5.2 weeks, according to the latest results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2020: -1.1 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM

2020-05-05

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2020-05-05

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, April 2020
05.05.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in April 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.3 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –1.1% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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