Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss Consumer sentiment: No further recovery of consumer sentiment

2020-11-05

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2020-11-05

Consumer sentiment index, 2011-2020
Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has largely been stagnating since the summer. All sub-indices used for the calculation are still below their long-term average and none have improved significantly compared to this summer’s survey. Economic development and the situation on the labour market are seen as unfavourable.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2020: -0.6 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

2020-11-04

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2020-11-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, October 2020
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in October 2020 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, September 2020: 0.3 percent Nominal and 0.3 percent Real

2020-10-30

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2020-10-30

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2020
30.10.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.3% in nominal terms in September 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 3.6% compared with the previous month.

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Weekly View – A sure thing

2020-10-27

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2020-10-27

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration.

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World Data Forum: strong international cooperation for quality data

2020-10-23

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2020-10-23

22.10.2020 - The United Nations World Data Forum took place from 19 to 21 October 2020 in digital format due to COVID-19. The event brought together several thousand experts to find innovative solutions in order to meet the need for better quality data to implement the 2030 Agenda and to control the pandemic.

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Occupational mobility: nearly 20 percent of employed persons left their job between 2018 and 2019

2020-10-22

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2020-10-22

Reason for leaving a position (gross rotation rate)
22.10.2020 - In Switzerland, 19.2% of people who pursued a professional activity left their job between 2018 and 2019. Mobility is particularly strong among young people, people with a fixed-term contract or working in the hotel and restaurant sector.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2020: foreign trade regains color

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, September 2020
After its historic decline in the second quarter, Swiss foreign trade showed a clear recovery in the third quarter of 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports swelled by 6.5% and imports by 11.5%. The two traffic departments, however, remained well below their record level for the second quarter of 2019. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 8.2 billion francs.

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Weekly View – Biden time for markets

2020-10-16

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2020-10-16

Donald Trump’s poll numbers were looking increasingly unhealthy at the time of writing, but at least the cocktail of drugs administered to the coronavirus-stricken President appears to have worked.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2020: -3.1 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

2020-10-15

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2020-10-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2020
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2020 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.0 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap as well as for basic metals and semi-finished metal products.

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Forecast: 2020 economic slump less serious than feared

2020-10-13

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2020-10-13

Comparison of forecasts of October 20 and June 20
The Expert Group is expecting GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 3.8 % in 2020 and unemployment to average 3.2 % over the year as a whole. Prospects for 2020 are therefore less negative than feared in the middle of the year. The momentum is likely to weaken as time goes on.

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House View, October 2020

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in September 2020: -0.8 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, September 2020
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in September 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.8% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, August 2020: 1.6 percent Nominal and 2.5 percent Real

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, August 2020
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.6% in nominal terms in August 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 2.1% compared with the previous month.

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GDP level corrected from 2.8 percent to 3.6 percent between 1995 and 2017 following revision of the national accounts

2020-09-29

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2020-09-29

Swiss Economic Growth 1996–2018
The results of the national accounts published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) have been revised upwards. New data series are available for the period 1995 to 2019. This revision was carried out in collaboration with the sector responsible for quarterly estimates at SECO, provides methodological improvements and takes into consideration new data.

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Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

2020-09-18

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2020-09-18

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2020: -3.5 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM

2020-09-16

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2020-09-16

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, August 2020
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in August 2020 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 97.9 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with August 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.5%.

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House View, September 2020

2020-09-11

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2020-09-11

A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable.

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Weekly View – Election nerves increase

2020-09-10

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2020-09-10

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

2020-09-04

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2020-09-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, August 2020
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.9% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2020: 3.4 percent Nominal and 4.1 percent Real

2020-09-01

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2020-09-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, July 2020
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 3.4% in nominal terms in July 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.7% compared with the previous month.

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