Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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A reality check on China’s return to work

2020-04-14

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2020-04-14

The recent recovery in industrial activity seems to have stalled, probably because of the collapse in external demand and high levels of vigilance inside China. Since the large-scale coronavirus infection was contained, the Chinese government has been trying hard to get the economy back on track. The end of the lockdown in Wuhan after two in a half months is an important milestone in that respect.

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Central banks to the rescue

2020-04-12

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2020-04-12

While expecting long-term yields to be capped, we remain neutral on US Treasuries. We think peripheral euro area bonds to avoid the levels of stress seen during the sovereign debt crisis.

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Switzerland’s population continued to increase and age in 2019

2020-04-10

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2020-04-10

T1 Bilanz der ständigen Wohnbevölkerung, 2005-2019
09.04.2020 - At the end of 2019, Switzerland had a population of 8 603 900, i.e. 59 400 persons (+0.7%) more than in 2018. Since 2017, the population has grown more slowly than in previous years. Zurich recorded the greatest increase while Appenzell Innerrhoden, Neuchâtel, Nidwalden and Ticino saw their population decline.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2020: -0.5 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

2020-04-02

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2020-04-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2020
02.04.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in March 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.5% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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KOF Economic Barometer: Strongest monthly plunge since 2015

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

KOF Economic Barometer, March 2020
The reading of the KOF Economic Barometer dropped drastically in March and is now with 92.9 well below its long-​term average. Accordingly, the Swiss economy can be expected to see a marked decline in growth rates in the near future. This plunge of the Barometer reflects the first economic consequences of the accelerated spread of the Coronavirus.

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Swiss Trade Balance February 2020: decline in foreign trade

2020-03-19

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2020-03-19

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), February 2020
After their strong increase the previous month, exports plunged 5.0% in February 2020 and thus continue on their negative trend that started in September 2019. Imports weakened by 1.4%. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.0 billion francs.

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Coronavirus: Federal Council declares ‘extraordinary situation’ and introduces more stringent measures

2020-03-17

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2020-03-17

At an extraordinary meeting today, 16 March 2020, the Federal Council took the decision to introduce more stringent measures to protect the public. It has declared that an ‘extraordinary situation’ now exists in Switzerland in terms of the Epidemics Act. All shops, restaurants, bars and entertainment and leisure facilities will remain closed until 19 April.

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Switzerland Unemployment in February 2020: Down to 2.5 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

2020-03-09

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2020-03-09

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., November 2019
Registered unemployment in February 2020 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 117,822 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers at the end of February 2020, 3,196 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.6% in January 2020 to 2.5% in the reporting month.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2020: -0.1 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, February 2020
04.03.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in February 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2020: +0.6 percent Nominal and -0.1 percent Real

2020-02-28

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2020-02-28

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, January 2020
28.02.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in January 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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New record for overnight stays for the Swiss hotel sector in 2019

2020-02-27

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2020-02-27

Overnight Stays 2019
27.02.2020 - In 2019, the Swiss hotel sector registered 39.6 million overnight stays. This represented growth of 1.9% (+755 000) compared with 2018 and constitutes a new record. This result confirms the upward trend started in 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.6 million overnight stays which represents an increase of 1.1% (+246 000), i.e. a level of overnight stays never seen before.

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Employment Barometer in the Q4 2019: Uninterrupted employment growth in Switzerland for 10 years

2020-02-25

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2020-02-25

Switzerland Employment Level, Q4 2019
25.02.2020 - In the 4th quarter 2019, the total employment (number of jobs) in Switzerland rose by 1.2% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter). Employment growth has thus been uninterrupted for a decade. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.1%.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q4 2019: Secondary sector shows positive growth rates again

2020-02-20

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2020-02-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, January 2020
20.02.2020 - Secondary sector production rose by 1.3% in 4th quarter 2019 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 0.3%. This rise has continued without interruption since the 1st quarter 2017 but was slightly weaker in the reporting quarter. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Weekly View – Merkel under pressure

2020-02-19

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2020-02-19

Euro-area growth has hit a slow patch. Following promising signs of having turned a corner, economic data released last week revealed that Q4 growth in the euro area reached its slowest pace since the European debt crisis. German growth was flat for Q4, in line with expectations. As far as Germany’s outlook goes, dark clouds have taken the form of an uncertain political environment and China’s recent weakness.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2020: -1.0 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

2020-02-14

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2020-02-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, January 2020
The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in January 2020 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 100.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Petroleum products in particular saw higher prices, while pharmaceutical preparations became cheaper. Compared with January 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.0%.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4rd quarter 2019: 0.9percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 3.9percent

2020-02-14

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2020-02-14

Unemployed According to ILO, Q1 2014-Q4 2019
13.02.2020 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.9% between the 4th quarter 2018 and the 4th quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 4.6% to 3.9%. The EU's unemployment rate based also decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2020: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2020-02-11

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2020-02-11

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, January 2020
10.02.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in January 2020 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Electric cars gain momentum: number of new registrations more than doubled in 2019

2020-02-01

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2020-02-01

New marketings of passenger cars by fuel
In 2019, 6 160 300 motor vehicles circulated on Swiss roads. This was 46 500 or 0.8% more than in the previous year. Three quarters of the entire fleet were passenger cars, including an increasing number of electric cars: of the 312 900 cars that were newly registered in 2019, 13 200 or 4.2% were purely battery operated.

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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2019: -0.4 percent Nominal and 0.1 percent Real

2020-01-31

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2020-01-31

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, December 2019
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.4% compared with the previous month.

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Swiss Trade Balance December 2019: Chemistry-pharma propels foreign trade 2019 to new heights

2020-01-28

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2020-01-28

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), December 2019
Despite a climate of uncertainty linked to trade tensions and the global economy, Swiss foreign trade grew in 2019, albeit at a slower pace. Exports increased by 3.9% to 242.3 billion francs while imports increased by 1.6% to 205.0 billion francs, the two directions of traffic thus reaching an historic peak. The trade balance closed with a record surplus of 37.3 billion francs.

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