Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Euro area: Business activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly 12 years

2018-01-24

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2018-01-24

Eurozone Composite PMI and GDP Growth, 2000 - 2018
The flash composite Purchasing Managers’ index for the euro area increased to 58.6 in January from 58.1 in December, above consensus expectations (57.9). The services sector index rose, offsetting the decline in the manufacturing index . Companies also expressed growing optimism about this year’s outlook, with business expectations up to an eight-month high.

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Upside risks to wages from IG Metall negotiations

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

Euro area and German Wage Growth, 1999 - 2018
German wage negotiations are in full swing amid growing calls for strikes. This comes at a crucial time for the ECB as strong growth and falling unemployment are expected to feed into higher inflation. IG Metall is by far the most important union to watch, representing almost 4 million German workers and being seen as a benchmark, including in the car industry or the construction sector this year.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.2 MoM

2018-01-19

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2018-01-19

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, December 2017
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2017 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015=100). Compared with December 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%. The average annualised inflation rate in 2017 was 0.9%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Switzerland: Inflation at a seven-year high

2018-01-10

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2018-01-10

Swiss Headline and Core Inflation, 2005 - 2018
According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO), consumer prices in Switzerland remained broadly stable at 0.8% y-o-y in December, in line with consensus expectations, meaning that Swiss inflation stayed at its highest rate in almost seven years at the end of 2017.

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Switzerland Unemployment in December 2017: Up to 3.3 percent due to winter, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 3.0 percent

2018-01-09

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2018-01-09

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. December 2017
Registered unemployment in December 2017 - According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 146,654 unemployed people were enrolled at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of December 2017, 9,337 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 3.1% in November 2017 to 3.3% in the month under review. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 12,718 (-8.0%).

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Swiss Retail Sales, November: +0.2 Percent Nominal and -0.2 Percent Real

2018-01-09

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2018-01-09

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, November 2017
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.2% in nominal terms in November 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are the provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in December 2017: +0.8 YoY, unchanged MoM

2018-01-08

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2018-01-08

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Dec 2017
The consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged in December 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.8 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.8% compared with the same month of the previous year. Average annual inflation reached 0.5% in 2017. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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2018 ECB outlook – Mission: possible

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

ECB Asset Purchase Programmes, March 2015 - December 2017
We expect the ECB to announce a tapering of its asset purchase programme in the summer, but not to overreact to strong economic data. Our first choice as the title for our 2018 ECB outlook was “The courage not to act”, but regular readers will know that we used this hommage to Ben Bernanke earlier this year.

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Switzerland UBS consumption indicator November: Solid private consumption in 2018

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, November 2017
At 1.67 points, the UBS consumption indicator was above its long-term average in November, indicating solid consumption growth in 2018. Thanks to solid economic growth, private consumption will likely continue expanding despite rising inflation.

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Increasingly optimistic on Swiss outlook

2017-12-22

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2017-12-22

At its December meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its accommodative monetary policy unchanged. More specifically, the SNB maintained the target range for the three-month Libor at between - 1.25% and-0.25% and the interest rate on sight deposits at a record low of - 0.75%. The SNB also reiterated its commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed, taking into account the “overall currency situation”.

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Swiss Trade Balance November 2017: Foreign Trade in Verve

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

Switzerland Trade Balance, November 2017
Swiss foreign trade proved dynamic in November 2017. After correction of working days, exports grew by 9.5% and imports even 16.4% year on year, both boosted by rising prices. In real terms, they increased by 4.4 and 6.8%, respectively. The balance commercial loop with a surplus of 2.7 billion francs.

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ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” - in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate.

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Euro area: The sky is the limit

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors.

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Switzerland’s Economic Recovery gains momentum

2017-12-19

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2017-12-19

Comparison of Forecasts of September and December 2017
Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Winter 2017/2018* The Federal Government’s Expert Group expects the Swiss economy to make a speedy recovery over the next few quarters. While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn.

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ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

ECB Staff Projections, Sep 2017
The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.6 MoM

2017-12-14

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2017-12-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2017
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2017 by 0.6% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, chemical and pharmaceutical products and scrap. Compared with November 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%.

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The Swiss economy is gaining momentum

2017-12-14

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2017-12-14

Swiss Real GDP Growth, 1990 - 2018
Swiss growth was disappointing at the end of 2016 and in the first half of 2017. Consequently, GDP growth this year is likely to be just 1.0% , its lowest level since 2012 . However, a wide set of statistics are already painting a considerably more positive picture of strengthening growth as we approach the end of 2017. Of particular note is the increasing contribution of manufacturing to real GDP growth.

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Euro Area Forecast to Grow 2.3percent in 2018

2017-12-13

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2017-12-13

Euro Area Real GDP Growth
2017 was the year of the ‘Euroboom’ and the removal of political tail risks. Moving into 2018, we mark-to-market strong economic data, including carryover and revisions. We forecast annual GDP growth of 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Qualitatively, our forecasts reflect our view that the euro area has reached ‘escape velocity’, with important implications for investors.

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Farm Census 2016: Swiss farmers work well over 60 hours per week

2017-12-13

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2017-12-13

Weekly Working Hours in Agriculture 2016
For several years the average Swiss farmer has been working well over 60 hours per week. With their off-farm jobs, part-time farmers also work long hours. From 2010 to 2016, however, the hours worked fell by one hour per week. Over the same period, farms greatly increased the direct sale of farm products (+60%). Despite the long working hours, in many cases it is very likely that a family member will take over the farm. These are some of the latest...

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