Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss Trade Balance November 2017: Foreign Trade in Verve

Swiss foreign trade proved dynamic in November 2017. After correction of working days, exports grew by 9.5% and imports even 16.4% year on year, both boosted by rising prices. In real terms, they increased by 4.4 and 6.8%, respectively. The balance commercial loop with a surplus of 2.7 billion francs.

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ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” - in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate.

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Euro area: The sky is the limit

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors.

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Switzerland’s Economic Recovery gains momentum

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Winter 2017/2018* The Federal Government’s Expert Group expects the Swiss economy to make a speedy recovery over the next few quarters. While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn.

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ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.6 MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2017 by 0.6% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, chemical and pharmaceutical products and scrap. Compared with November 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%.

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The Swiss economy is gaining momentum

Swiss growth was disappointing at the end of 2016 and in the first half of 2017. Consequently, GDP growth this year is likely to be just 1.0% , its lowest level since 2012 . However, a wide set of statistics are already painting a considerably more positive picture of strengthening growth as we approach the end of 2017. Of particular note is the increasing contribution of manufacturing to real GDP growth.

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Euro Area Forecast to Grow 2.3percent in 2018

2017 was the year of the ‘Euroboom’ and the removal of political tail risks. Moving into 2018, we mark-to-market strong economic data, including carryover and revisions. We forecast annual GDP growth of 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Qualitatively, our forecasts reflect our view that the euro area has reached ‘escape velocity’, with important implications for investors.

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Farm Census 2016: Swiss farmers work well over 60 hours per week

For several years the average Swiss farmer has been working well over 60 hours per week. With their off-farm jobs, part-time farmers also work long hours. From 2010 to 2016, however, the hours worked fell by one hour per week. Over the same period, farms greatly increased the direct sale of farm products (+60%). Despite the long working hours, in many cases it is very likely that a family member will take over the farm. These are some of the latest...

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L’Union européenne fait semblant de lutter contre l’évasion fiscale. Attac

Les paradis fiscaux lovés au coeur de l’UE, de l’Asie et des Etats-Unis d’Amérique sont occultés… L’analyse vire à la farce! Après avoir étudié la situation de 92 pays en matière de lutte contre l’évasion fiscale, l’Union européenne n’en retient donc que 17 sur sa liste noire des paradis fiscaux. Parmi ces États dits « non-coopératifs » on trouve, entre autres, le Panama, la Tunisie, les Emirats arabes unis, Trinité et...

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Gross domestic product by canton in 2015: Economic activity slowed down in Switzerland in 2015

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed between 2014 and 2015 in most cantons. Nevertheless, the cantons of Neuchâtel (+ 4.4%), Schaffhausen (+ 2.9%), Schwyz (+ 2.9%) and Zug (+ 2.8%) recorded a clearly positive development. The canton of Zurich once again made the biggest contribution to the nationwide growth.

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Switzerland Unemployment in November 2017: Up to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted decreased to 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent

Registered unemployment in November 2017 - According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, at the end of November 2017 there were 137'317 unemployed registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 2'517 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 3.0% in October 2017 to 3.1% in the month under review. Compared with the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 11,911 persons (-8.0%).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in November 2017: Up +0.8 percent against 2016, -0.1 percent against last month

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.8% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Tourist accommodation during the 2017 summer season: Big increase in overnight stays in hotel

The hotel sector registered 21.3 million overnight stays in Switzerland during the summer tourist season (from May to October 2017). This represents an increase of 5.9% (+1.2 million overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 12.1 million overnight stays, foreign demand rose by 7.3% (+823,000). Domestic visitors registered a 4.0% increase (+356,000) with 9.2 million units.

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Swiss Retail Sales, October: -2.7 Percent Nominal and -1.6 Percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.7% in nominal terms in October 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Switzerland GDP Q3 2017: +1.2 percent QoQ, +1.2 percent YoY

Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 % in the 3rd quarter of 2017,* boosted by manufacturing in particular. Many service sectors also contributed to growth, including trade, business services and healthcare. By contrast, value added fell slightly in construction and the financial sector.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Swiss Economy Gains Pace

The KOF Economic Barometer continued its upward tendency in November. It rose by 0.5 points to 110.3 points (after revised 109.8 in October). This is the third consecutive increase of the indicator. The Swiss economy continues to gain momentum towards the end of the year.

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Health insurance premium index 2017: Premium increases from 2016 to 2017 curb growth in disposable income by 0.3 percentage points

The health insurance premiums index (CIPI) recorded a growth of 3.8 percent over the previous year for the 2017 premium year. The KVPI thus achieved an index level of 185.3 points (base 1999 = 100). The impact of premium development on the growth of disposable income can be estimated using the CIPI. According to the KVPI model calculation by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the increase in premiums reduces the growth in average disposable...

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator October: UBS consumption indicator trends sideways

The UBS consumption indicator was quoted at 1.54 points in October, suggesting that private consumption is growing at a solid pace in the fourth quarter. A weaker Swiss franc and a drop in unemployment provide support for it, but rising inflation and the accompanying stagnation of real wages are likely to cap any growth in it.

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Employment barometer in the Q3 2017: Employment continues to increase in the Q3 2017

In the 3rd quarter 2017, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.8% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.3% with the previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 0.5%. The Swiss economy counted 4000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+7.5%) and the employment outlook indicator is also indicating an upward trend (+0.6%).

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