Zurich, 20 November 2019 – Stark political choices make the 2020 outlook more difficult to predict, but innovation driven by technology and sustainability will present new winners and losers over the decade ahead, according to UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM)’s new Year Ahead outlook.

The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2018 report is produced by UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office and analyzes residential property prices in 20 developed market financial centers around the world. Hong Kong faces the greatest risk of a housing bubble, followed in descending order by Munich, Toronto, Vancouver, Amsterdam, and London.

UBS shareholders approved all the Board of Directors’ proposals at today’s Annual General Meeting in Basel. Shareholders confirmed the re-election of the Chairman and the members of the Board of Directors. They elected Jeremy Anderson and Fred Hu as new members of the Board. They approved the payment of an ordinary dividend of CHF 0.65 per share, an increase compared with the previous year.

The Board of Directors of UBS Group AG is proposing Jeremy Anderson and Fred Hu for election as new members of the Board of Directors for a one-year term. Jeremy Anderson (born 1958) was Chairman of Global Financial Services at KPMG International from 2010 until November 2017. He previously held various senior positions at KPMG and was appointed to lead KPMG’s UK Financial Services Practice in 2004.

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index declined in the fourth quarter of 2017, and is currently in the risk zone at 1.32 index points. This second fall in succession was driven by the persistently low increase of mortgage volumes. However, this may have been underestimated, as the records of mortgages granted by insurers and pension funds are inadequate. The majority of the sub-indicators remained unchanged in the last quarter.

At 1.69 points, the consumption indicator lay well above the long-term average in December 2017, conveying an optimistic snapshot of Swiss private consumption. Weaker figures for new car registrations prevented an even higher value. The consumption indicator fell slightly in December 2017 to 1.69 points from 1.73. However, values had been revised upward in the past few months.

At 1.67 points, the UBS consumption indicator was above its long-term average in November, indicating solid consumption growth in 2018. Thanks to solid economic growth, private consumption will likely continue expanding despite rising inflation.

The UBS consumption indicator was quoted at 1.54 points in October, suggesting that private consumption is growing at a solid pace in the fourth quarter. A weaker Swiss franc and a drop in unemployment provide support for it, but rising inflation and the accompanying stagnation of real wages are likely to cap any growth in it.

The UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.56 points in September, signalling consumption growth slightly above the long-term average. The indicator was supported by significantly higher expectations in the retail industry, but UBS still projects consumer spending to grow 1.3 percent for the year overall.

The UBS consumption indicator increased to 1.53 points in August thanks to robust new car registrations and encouraging numbers of hotel stays by Swiss residents, indicating consumption growth slightly above the long-term average of 1.5%. However, the UBS economists still project 1.3% consumer spending growth for the year overall.

UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months. Relatively weak growth in employment was much to blame for the lackluster number, however this was offset somewhat by robust new car registrations data and overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals.

UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months. Relatively weak growth in employment was much to blame for the lackluster number, however this was offset somewhat by robust new car registrations data and overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals.

A longer working life can counteract the demography-related shortage of skilled workers and spiraling social security expenditure. For this to happen, however, the reintegration of older employees must be improved and gainful employment made more attractive beyond the age of retirement. New, innovative concepts are needed that point the way toward a labor market that is more flexible and better-oriented to the needs older employed workers.

The UBS consumption indicator registered 1.39 points in May, suggesting slightly below-average growth in private consumption. This matches the UBS CIO consumption growth forecast of 1.3% in 2017. The data published in June regarding new car registrations and hotel overnight stays by Swiss residents was robust and supported the consumption indicator.

The UBS consumption indicator stood at 1.48 points in April, indicating average private consumption growth. The improved mood in the retail sector supported the indicator, while a decline in new car registrations had a negative effect. The index of consumer sentiment measured by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs also fell slightly.

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index remained in the risk zone at 1.39 points in the first quarter of 2017 following a moderate increase. The increase in home prices outpaced the increase in rents and income. Demand for buy-to-let investments also rose, in spite of heightened market risks.

The UBS consumption indicator registered at 1.50 points in March, indicating private consumption growth around the long-term average. Solid automotive demand drove this figure. Domestic tourism, on the other hand, took a breather after a strong start in 2017. Pessimism still prevails in retail.

The UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.50 points in February from 1.44, indicating solid private consumption in the first quarter. Domestic tourism bottomed out and then rose significantly in January. On the other hand, dour sentiment in the retail trade is hemming further gains by the consumption indicator.

The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.38 to 1.43 points in January and continues to signal solid growth in private consumption. Swiss consumers view the economic and financial situation with considerably more optimism than in the last quarter. New car registrations and domestic tourism have, however, fallen compared with the previous January. Zurich, 1 March 2017 – Following a comprehensive data revision, the UBS consumption indicator climbed from 1.38 to 1.43 points in January.

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index stood in the risk zone at 1.35 points after a slight increase in the final quarter of 2016. The further increase in the ratio of purchase prices to rents and income reflects increasing interest rate risks. The stabilization of the index in the last few quarters is due to the sharp slowdown in household debt growth.

The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.45 to 1.50 points in December. The positive trend of last fall continued and signalizes solid growth prospects for private consumption this year. New car registrations in the automobile sector, which are at an all-time high, are at the root of this positive outlook.

Record-breaking purchase prices and increased vacancy rates are making property investments a careful balancing act. Achieving full occupancy for an investment property now requires active space management and discounted rents – in every segment. Rents for investment properties are expected to fall this year, while house prices stagnate.

The UBS Consumption Indicator climbed to 1.43 points in November from 1.39. Another strong month in domestic tourism and the positive trend on the automobile market made the rise possible. Initially a solid start is to be expected for 2017, but momentum is expected to subside.

In October, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.47 to 1.49 points. Positive developments in the automobile market and robust domestic tourism continue to support private consumption. However, the slump in the retail sector prevented a stronger rise of the indicator.

Risks to the Swiss property market remained elevated in the three months through September, according to UBS Group AG’s quarterly index. “While the buy-to-rent price ratio reached an all-time high, moderate mortgage growth and the slightly-improved economy prevented imbalances in the owner-occupied housing market from widening,” it said in a report.

The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.53 to 1.59 points in September. The positive trend continues and points to further growth in private consumption for the fourth quarter. The driving forces are new vehicle registrations, which are at a record level, and the upsurge in domestic tourism in August.

The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. This development was fueled by resurging tourism and above-average car sales for the month. However, the situation on the labor market casts a shadow on this rise.

In July, the UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.32 points from 1.21. A slight downward adjustment of the June figure and above-average car sales generated the increase. However, the disappointing June figures for tourism and sluggish consumer sentiment slightly curbed this upward trend.

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index nudged down in 2Q 2016 to 1.32 points and thus remains in the risk zone. This second drop in a row was due to house prices falling in real terms and the declining momentum of mortgage growth. Investments in real estate remain popular due to low interest rates.

In June, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.24 to 1.34 points. This was mainly due to a better performance in the tourism industry as well as a slight improvement in sentiment in the retail trade. However, the situation in the labor market is still strained and is weighing on consumer sentiment.

The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.35 points in May from 1.24, extending its positive month-on-month run. The indicator was, however, adversely affected by the recently released employment figures for 1Q 2016.