Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Price indices’ upgrade includes addition of an official residential property price index

2020-11-27

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2020-11-27

From 2021, the price indices published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) will be armed with an updated methodology that reflects market changes as closely as possible. Furthermore, a new price index will be added to the existing set, measuring residential property price change, which will be published on a quarterly basis.

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Employment in Switzerland continued to fall in 3rd quarter

2020-11-26

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2020-11-26

Switzerland Employment Level, Q3 2020
26.11.2020 - In the 3rd quarter 2020, total employment (number of jobs) fell by 0.4% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.5% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period declined by 0.1%. The Swiss economy counted 11 900 fewer vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (–15.1%) with the employment outlook indicator also indicating a downward trend (-2.3%).

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2020: foreign trade falters

2020-11-19

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2020-11-19

Switzerland Trade Balance, October 2020
In October 2020, Swiss foreign trade took off. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports stagnated (-0.4%) while imports fell 3.3%. The slowdown recorded since this summer in both directions of traffic has thus been confirmed. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.9 billion francs.

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House View, November 2020

2020-11-10

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2020-11-10

The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat 'blue wave' failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. 

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Switzerland Unemployment in October 2020: remained at 3.2percent, seasonally adjusted fallen to 3.3percent

2020-11-09

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2020-11-09

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., October 2020
Registered unemployment in October 2020 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 149,118 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers (RAV) at the end of October 2020, 558 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.2% in the month under review. Compared to the same month last year, unemployment increased by 47,434 people (+ 46.6%).

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Swiss Consumer sentiment: No further recovery of consumer sentiment

2020-11-05

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2020-11-05

Consumer sentiment index, 2011-2020
Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has largely been stagnating since the summer. All sub-indices used for the calculation are still below their long-term average and none have improved significantly compared to this summer’s survey. Economic development and the situation on the labour market are seen as unfavourable.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2020: -0.6 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

2020-11-04

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2020-11-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, October 2020
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in October 2020 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, September 2020: 0.3 percent Nominal and 0.3 percent Real

2020-10-30

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2020-10-30

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2020
30.10.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.3% in nominal terms in September 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 3.6% compared with the previous month.

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Weekly View – A sure thing

2020-10-27

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2020-10-27

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration.

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World Data Forum: strong international cooperation for quality data

2020-10-23

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2020-10-23

22.10.2020 - The United Nations World Data Forum took place from 19 to 21 October 2020 in digital format due to COVID-19. The event brought together several thousand experts to find innovative solutions in order to meet the need for better quality data to implement the 2030 Agenda and to control the pandemic.

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Occupational mobility: nearly 20 percent of employed persons left their job between 2018 and 2019

2020-10-22

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2020-10-22

Reason for leaving a position (gross rotation rate)
22.10.2020 - In Switzerland, 19.2% of people who pursued a professional activity left their job between 2018 and 2019. Mobility is particularly strong among young people, people with a fixed-term contract or working in the hotel and restaurant sector.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2020: foreign trade regains color

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, September 2020
After its historic decline in the second quarter, Swiss foreign trade showed a clear recovery in the third quarter of 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports swelled by 6.5% and imports by 11.5%. The two traffic departments, however, remained well below their record level for the second quarter of 2019. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 8.2 billion francs.

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Weekly View – Biden time for markets

2020-10-16

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2020-10-16

Donald Trump’s poll numbers were looking increasingly unhealthy at the time of writing, but at least the cocktail of drugs administered to the coronavirus-stricken President appears to have worked.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2020: -3.1 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

2020-10-15

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2020-10-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2020
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2020 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.0 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap as well as for basic metals and semi-finished metal products.

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Forecast: 2020 economic slump less serious than feared

2020-10-13

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2020-10-13

Comparison of forecasts of October 20 and June 20
The Expert Group is expecting GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 3.8 % in 2020 and unemployment to average 3.2 % over the year as a whole. Prospects for 2020 are therefore less negative than feared in the middle of the year. The momentum is likely to weaken as time goes on.

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House View, October 2020

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August.

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Swiss Retail Sales, August 2020: 1.6 percent Nominal and 2.5 percent Real

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, August 2020
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.6% in nominal terms in August 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 2.1% compared with the previous month.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in September 2020: -0.8 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, September 2020
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in September 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.8% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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GDP level corrected from 2.8 percent to 3.6 percent between 1995 and 2017 following revision of the national accounts

2020-09-29

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2020-09-29

Swiss Economic Growth 1996–2018
The results of the national accounts published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) have been revised upwards. New data series are available for the period 1995 to 2019. This revision was carried out in collaboration with the sector responsible for quarterly estimates at SECO, provides methodological improvements and takes into consideration new data.

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Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

2020-09-18

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2020-09-18

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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