Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer December: Unchanged

2016-12-26

by KOF Zurich

2016-12-26

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer stayed at its previous month’s reading of 102.2. The currently observable sideward trend, at a level slightly above the long-term average, indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at rates close to its long-term average in the near future.

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ECB Assets Hit 35 percent Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Owns 9.2 percent Of European Corporate Bond Market

2016-12-23

by Tyler Durden

2016-12-23

Weekly purchases under the expanded asset purchase programme

As global markets bask in the glow of the Trumpflation recovery, the ECB continues to be busy providing the actual levitating power behind what DB recently dubbed global "helicopter money", by buying copious amounts of bonds on a daily basis (at least until tomorrow when the ECB goes on brief monetization hiatus, and Italy will be on its own for the next two weeks).

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Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q3 2016

2016-12-21

by SNB

2016-12-21

Switzerland International Investment Position - Q3 2016

In the third quarter of 2016, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 21 billion. This was CHF 2 billion less than in the year -back quarter. As a result of lower receipts from direct investment, the receipts surplus in primary income (labour and investment income) declined by CHF 4 billion to CHF 1 billion. The surplus of receipts from trade in goods increased by CHF 2 billion to CHF 17 billion, while the surplus of receipts for trade in...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, November 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.6 percent YoY

2016-12-14

by George Dorgan

2016-12-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2016

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). The slight rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap and petroleum products. Compared with November 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.6%. These are the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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ECB: Dovish Taper or Hawkish Ease?

2016-12-08

by Marc Chandler

2016-12-08

Purchases increased for longer but at a lower level; overall, more purchases than anticipated. Euro spiked higher on the announcement, but has subsequently dropped 2 cents. Lower inflation forecast for 2019 shows scope for a further extension.

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Cool Video: Discussing the ECB on Bloomberg TV

2016-12-08

by Marc Chandler

2016-12-08

Tired of reading what analysts are saying? Here is a 4.3 minute video clip of my discussion earlier today on Bloomberg TV about the outlook for tomorrow's ECB meeting. The discussion covers various aspects of the ECB's decision.

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ECB and the Future of QE

2016-12-08

by Marc Chandler

2016-12-08

ECB will likely extend asset purchases in full. It may modify the rules by which it buys securities. It may adjust the rules of engagement for its securities lending program.

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Greek Bonds may Soon be Included in ECB Purchases

2016-12-06

by Marc Chandler

2016-12-06

The ECB accepts Greek bonds as collateral but does not include them in its asset purchases. A new staff-level agreement by the end of the year could change that. Finance ministers imply that Greece's debt is sustainable, but the IMF disagrees.

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Switzerland Consumer Price Index in November 2016: -0.3 percent against 2015, -0.2 percent against last month

2016-12-06

by George Dorgan

2016-12-06

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see the opposite phenomenon: Rents in Italy or Spain are steady or falling. In Germany and Switzerland rent control prevents that asset price inflation moves into consumer prices. In Switzerland, more and...

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Swiss Tourism this Summer: More Swiss Guests, Less Asian Guests

2016-12-05

by George Dorgan

2016-12-05

In the summer months, the Swiss hotels registered more guests from Switzerland. from the United States and from Europe. But there was a sharp decline of guest from Asia. 100'000 more overnight stays from Switzerland could not recover the decrease of 200'000. One important reason for decline is the weakening Chinese currency, that reduced their purchasing power, in dollar but also in CHF.

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Italian Euro Exit: Why it Might Come in some Years and Why it Will Help the Euro Zone and Italy

Italy has three options: 1. exit the euro zone and devalue the currency; 2. remain in the euro zone and devalue salaries. 3. go for Japan-like decades-long slow growth with stagnating wages, but also with falling inflation and (positive news!) falling bond yields.

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Swiss Q3 GDP: +0.0 percent QoQ, +1.3 percent YoY

2016-12-02

by George Dorgan

2016-12-02

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY, September - December 2016

Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) has remained almost unchanged in the 3rd quarter of 2016 (+0.0%). Consumption was nearly stagnated, while net exports had a decline. But investments increased by 0.5% on the quarter.

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Swiss Retail Sales -0.9 percent nominal (YoY) and 1.3 percent real (YoY)

2016-12-01

by Swiss Statistics

2016-12-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, November 2016

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.9% in nominal terms in October 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator October: Retailers are hoping for good Christmas business

2016-11-30

by UBS Switzerland AG

2016-11-30

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, October 2016

In October, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.47 to 1.49 points. Positive developments in the automobile market and robust domestic tourism continue to support private consumption. However, the slump in the retail sector prevented a stronger rise of the indicator.

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Employment barometer in 3rd quarter 2016: Employment growth slows

2016-11-30

by Swiss Statistics

2016-11-30

In the 3rd quarter 2016, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (-0.1% compared with the previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period remained unchanged. The Swiss economy counted 4,000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+8.1%). The other indicators also showed positive growth. These are the findings from the Federal...

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L’Allemagne est le patron-sponsor de l’Eurosystem.

2016-11-25

by Liliane Held-Khawam

2016-11-25

Lors des échanges commerciaux et interbancaires, il y a des banques émettrices de monnaie et vis-à-vis une banque réceptrice. Normalement, à la fin de la journée, tout cela devrait être ramené à l’équilibre. Ceci n’est plus le cas depuis la crise américaine de 2007 (subprimes) comme nous le voyons sur le graphique ci-dessous de quelques pays de la zone euro.

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Health Care Premiums: Is Swiss Statistics Hiding Inflation?

2016-11-24

by George Dorgan

2016-11-24

The latest data releases from Swiss Statistics shows that health care premiums have risen by 3%, while health care prices for consumers have fallen. The reason may be the oligopoly structure of the Swiss health care system. But also that we consume higher and higher quantities of health care. Or is Swiss Statistics cheating on inflation?

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Production, orders and turnover statistics of the secondary sector in the 3rd quarter 2016

2016-11-24

by Swiss Statistics

2016-11-24

Industrial production in the secondary sector rose by 1.1% in 3rd quarter 2016 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover also rose by 1.1%. Orders received increased by 6.6% and orders on hand grew by 2.8%. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Trade Surplus Shrinks in October

2016-11-22

by George Dorgan

2016-11-22

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF)

In October 2016, Swiss exports were down 5.6% (in real terms: - 10.4%) against the previous year. Imports rose by 1.8%YoY (in real terms: -1%). The trade surplus diminished, after months of rising exports.

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The Italian Job

2016-11-20

by Marc Chandler

2016-11-20

Italy is the epicenter of the next potential populist "shock." A defeat of the referendum is seen as intensifying the political risk. Renzi has wavered again regarding his political future if the referendum loses.

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