Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss Nominal Wages to Rise by 0.8 Percent

2016-08-11

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2016-08-11

The unions are demanding higher salaries for next year. However, gains are realistic only in individual sectors. In addition, can be expected in Switzerland with a lower purchasing power gain. The workers umbrella organization Travail Suisse and the association Employees Switzerland have launched the 2017 wage round on Tuesday.

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Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index 2Q 2016 continues falling, Still in Risk Zone

2016-08-10

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2016-08-10

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index nudged down in 2Q 2016 to 1.32 points and thus remains in the risk zone. This second drop in a row was due to house prices falling in real terms and the declining momentum of mortgage growth. Investments in real estate remain popular due to low interest rates.

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Switzerland Unemployment in July 2016: Remained unchanged at 3.1 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 3.3 percent

2016-08-09

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2016-08-09

At the end of July 2016 there were 139'310 registered as unemployed, 183 more than last month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.1% in June. Compared to the previous month, unemployment increased by 5'556 persons (+ 4.2%). Seasonally adjusted 3.3%, one year ago 3.2%.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2016: -0.2 percent against 2015, -0.4 percent against last month

2016-08-08

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2016-08-08

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in July 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.3 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.2% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Statistics on tourist accommodation in June and in the first half of 2016: Overnight stays decline in first half-year and in June

2016-08-05

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2016-08-05

The hotel sector registered 16.8 million overnight stays in Switzerland during the first sixth months of 2016. This represents a decrease of 1.2% (-199,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 9.1 million overnight stays, foreign demand showed a drop of 2.5% (-234,000). Domestic visitors registered 7.7 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 0.5% (+36,000).

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Swiss Consumer Sentiment Remains Subdued

2016-08-04

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2016-08-04

Consumer sentiment remained unchanged between April and July 2016* and is now below the long-term average for the fifth quarter in a row. Most sub-indices also saw no major change, except regarding inflation, with the 1,200 or so individuals questioned expecting prices to rise more sharply over the next twelve months than they had in April.

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Swiss Retail Sales -4.6 percent nominal (YoY) and -3.9 percent real (YoY)

2016-08-02

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2016-08-02

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 4.6% in nominal terms in June 2016 compared with the previous year. The decline has been ongoing since January 2015. This is the largest decline since January 2003. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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KOF Economic Barometer July: Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised from 102.4). Thus the Barometer has been standing above the historical average since February this year. Despite the outcome of the vote in the United Kingdom and various other geopolitical risks, the...

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June: Summer tourism inspires confidence

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

In June, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.24 to 1.34 points. This was mainly due to a better performance in the tourism industry as well as a slight improvement in sentiment in the retail trade. However, the situation in the labor market is still strained and is weighing on consumer sentiment.

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European Court of Justice Ruling Weighs on Italian Banks

2016-07-19

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2016-07-19

ECJ uphold principle of bailing in junior creditors before the use of public funds. Italian banks shares snap a three-day advance. The EBA/ECB stress test results at the end of next week are the next big event.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, June 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -1.0 percent YoY

2016-07-14

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2016-07-14

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). Whereas the Producer Price Index declined by 0.2%, the Import Price Index rose by 0.8%. The slight increase of the overall index is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with June 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.0%.

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Three Developments in Spain

2016-07-13

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2016-07-13

Favorable initial ruling for Spanish banks that overcharged on mortgages. The EC may be lenient on Spain (and Portugal) for the excessive deficits in 2015. There is a window of opportunity for Rajoy to form a minority government.

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New Wrinkle in European Bail-In Efforts

2016-07-11

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2016-07-11

European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness.

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Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

Italian banks have done worse that European banks. Italian banks outperformed Germany banks from end of H1 12 through H1 15. US banks and financials more broadly have outperformed Europe.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2016: -0.4 percent against 2015, +0.1 percent against last month

2016-07-07

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2016-07-07

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in June 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.4% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Return of the Repressed: Europe’s Unresolved Banking Crisis

2016-07-06

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2016-07-06

The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy's banks, and Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions.

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Tourism accommodation statistics in May 2016: Increase in overnight stays during May 2016

2016-07-05

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2016-07-05

The Swiss hotel industry registered 2.7 million overnight stays in May 2016, which corresponds to a growth of 1.3% (+35,000 overnight stays) compared with May 2015. Domestic visitors recorded 1.1 million overnight stays, representing an increase of 1.9% (+21,000). Foreign demand registered 1.5 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 0.9% (+15,000). These are provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales -2.3 percent nominal (YoY) and -1.6 percent real (YoY)

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.3% in nominal terms in May 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Social Security Accounts 2014: Social security expenditure accounted for 24.5percent of GDP

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

In 2014 expenditure on social benefits from the Swiss social security system amounted to CHF 157 billion. This corresponds to a 24.5% share of the gross domestic product (GDP).

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Natural population change 2015: Swiss population increases not only thanks to immigration

2016-06-30

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2016-06-30

The Swiss population not only increases thanks to immigration, but also with the natural change: More live births than deaths. This is different from countries like Russia, Germany or Italy.

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