Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

2017-09-15

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2017-09-15

Crude Oil, Jan 2006 - Jun 2017
Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some big ones this year.

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Canada’s RHINO(s)

2017-09-14

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2017-09-14

Canadian GDP, 1961 - 2016
The Bank of Canada “raised rates” again today, this time surprising markets and economists who were expecting more distance between the first and second policy adjustments. The central bank paid typical lip service to being data dependent. It has a vested interest if you, as any Canadian reader, believe that to be a fact.

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Death is inevitable, but a bad death is not | The Economist

2017-09-13

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Death is inevitable, but for most people in rich countries it’s not sudden. Our Public Policy Editor, John McDermott, examines how terminally ill patients can have the death they want. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 How to have a better death. Michael Hunter was recently diagnosed with terminal cancer. He …

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US Export/Import: ‘Something’ Is Still Out There

2017-09-13

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2017-09-13

US Real Personal Income, Jan 2010 - Jul 2017
In January 2016, just as the wave of “global turmoil” was cresting on domestic as well as foreign shores, retired Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was giving a series of lectures for the IMF. His topic wasn’t really the so-called taper tantrum of 2013 but it really was. Even ideologically blinded economists like Bernanke could see how one might have followed the other; the roots of 2016 in 2013.

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The Insanity of Pushing Inflation Higher When Wages Can’t Rise

2017-09-12

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2017-09-12

A tale of two countries 1962-2017
In an economy in which wages for 95% of households are stagnant for structural reasons, pushing inflation higher is destabilizing. The official policy goal of the Federal Reserve and other central banks is to generate 3% inflation annually. Put another way: the central banks want to lower the purchasing power of their currencies by 33% every decade. In other words, those with fixed incomes that don't keep pace with inflation will have lost a third...

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The global arms trade is booming | The Economist

2017-09-12

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The global arms trade has reached its highest point since the Cold War. We reveal which countries are buying up weapons and explain why. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 We are in the midst of the biggest arms race since the Cold War. In 2016 World military spending accounted for …

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The Entire Economic System Is One Big Illusion Charles Hugh Smith YouTube

2017-09-12

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Charles Hugh Smith ( Sep 11, 2017 ) – sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalypse

2017-09-11

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Charles Hugh Smith ( Sep 11, 2017 ) – sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalypse #charleshughsmithhealthcare #charleshughsmithpodcast

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Waiting For Irma

2017-09-11

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2017-09-11

This update will be a bit shorter than usual. I’m in Miami awaiting Hurricane Irma. As of now, it looks like the eye of the storm will make landfall near Key West and continue west of us with the Naples/Ft. Myers area at risk. Or at least that’s the way it looks right now. I’ve done a lot of these storms though – I lost a house in Andrew in ’92 – and you never know what these things will do. We are secure in a house that survived Andrew with barely...

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Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

2017-09-11

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2017-09-11

EM FX ended the week on a mixed note, but still capped off a strong week overall. US data this week could challenge the market’s dovish take on the Fed. For now, though, the global liquidity outlook still seems to favor further gains in EM.

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Global PMI Roundup; August 2017

2017-09-10

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2017-09-10

Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI, Jan 2014 - 2017
The first few days of any calendar month are now flooded with PMI data. Mostly due to Markit’s ongoing and increasing partnerships, we now have access to economic or business sentiment from and for almost anywhere in the world. It isn’t clear, however, if that is a good or useful development. For example, we can see quite plainly that there is a whole bunch of trouble brewing in Kenya. The Stanbic Bank/Markit Kenya PMI fell to a record low 42.0 in...

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Why We’re Doomed: Stagnant Wages

2017-09-10

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2017-09-10

Diverging Income Trajectories 1947 - 2014
The point is the present system cannot endure. Despite all the happy talk about "recovery" and higher growth, wages have gone nowhere since 2000--and for the bottom 20% of workers, they've gone nowhere since the 1970s. Gross domestic product (GDP) has risen smartly since 2000, but the share of GDP going to wages and salaries has plummeted: this is simply an extension of a 47-year downtrend.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-09-09

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2017-09-09

South Korea completed installation of the THAAD missile shield. Indonesia is considering issuing its first global IDR-denominated sovereign bonds. Taiwan is undergoing a cabinet shuffle. Brazil has seen some positive political developments. Brazil’s central bank signaled that the easing cycle is nearing an end and that the pace of easing will slow. Chile’s central bank boosted its growth forecasts.

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Now Capex?

2017-09-09

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2017-09-09

Total Construction Spending, Jan 1994 - 2017
Of all the high frequency data the Personal Savings Rate is probably the least reliable. It is subject to both regular and benchmark revisions that can change the estimates drastically one way or the other. One step up from that statistic is the figures for Construction Spending. The initial monthly estimates don’t survive very long, and lately they have been quite weak in the first run only to be revised sharply higher over subsequent months.

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Myanmar’s persecuted Rohingya refugees | The Economist

2017-09-08

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Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims have been described as the most persecuted minority on Earth. For years, Myanmar has not recognised them as citizens. Now the army is burning their villages, killing them and driving the survivors out of the country. Myanmar’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, ignores their plight. Does she deserve to keep her Nobel …

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Toward The Housing Bubble, Or Great Depression?

2017-09-08

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2017-09-08

US Personal Savings Rate, Jan 2000 - 2017
During the middle 2000’s, one more curious economic extreme presented itself in an otherwise ocean of extremes. Though economists were still thinking about the Great “Moderation”, the trend for the Personal Savings Rate was anything but moderate, indicated a distinct lack of modesty on the part of consumers. In early 2006, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculated that the rate had been negative for all of 2005. It was the first time in seventy...

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Bitcoin, Sour Grapes and the Institutional Herd

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

One Year Chart of Bitcoin, Oct 2016 - Jul 2017
The point is institutional ownership of bitcoin is in the very early stages. If I had a bitcoin for every time some pundit declared bitcoin is a bubble, I'd be a billionaire. There are three problems with opining that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are bubblicious:

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2017 Is Two-Thirds Done And Still No Payroll Pickup

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

Establishment Survey, Jan 2010 - Jul 2017
The payroll report for August 2017 thoroughly disappointed. The monthly change for the headline Establishment Survey was just +156k. The BLS also revised lower the headline estimate in each of the previous two months, estimating for July a gain of only +189k. The 6-month average, which matters more given the noisiness of the statistic, is just +160k or about the same as when the Federal Reserve contemplated starting a third round of QE back in 2012.

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Religion, faith and the role they play today | The Economist

2017-09-06

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Religion and faith are an integral part of people’s lives worldwide. But in many countries the number of people who believe in God is in decline. We examine the changing role of religion around the world Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The majority of Americans believe in God. But it’s …

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North Korea and America’s game of chicken | The Economist

2017-09-05

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North Korea and America have a relationship that is becoming increasingly tense. After North Korea’s most powerful nuclear test, our cartoonist Kal gives his impression of the stand-off between their two leaders: Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the …

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