Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Miami drag queen Elaine Lancaster opens up the secret side of her city | The Economist

2016-04-28

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Miami isn’t short of colourful characters, but drag queen Elaine Lancaster has to top the chart. Her favourite spot for visitors is Miami’s booming art district, Wynwood. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Passport is an original travel series for the intellectually and culturally curious, exploring some of the most exciting …

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FX Daily April 25: Global Tensions Lessened, but Bound to Increase Ahead of June FOMC Meeting

2016-04-25

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2016-04-25

We expect the FOMC statement this week to recognize the improvement in the global conditions that have been an increasing worry for officials over Q1.  At the same, time the soft patch of the US economy is undeniable. We suspect the Fed will look past the weakness of the US economy. The strength of the … Continue reading...

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-04-25

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2016-04-25

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM ended last week on a soft note.  Perhaps the main driver was rising US yields, as markets become wary of a more hawkish Fed this Wednesday.  Perhaps it was technical, as the EM rally became over-extended.  Wh...

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Chinese Dragon: Breathing Credit Fumes

2016-04-24

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2016-04-24

Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case of Australia over the last thirty years, model “forecast” are generally quite accurate.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)China’s central bank may be leaning less dovish Turkey has a new central bank governor Argentina issued external debt for the first time since it defaulted 15 years ago Brazil's lower house voted to impeach Preside...

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China makes the world’s bras and pants from this one town | The Economist

2016-04-20

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Next time you buy underwear that’s ‘Made in China’, chances are it has come from a town like Gurao, in south east China. Gurao has been dubbed the ‘town of underwear’. Its factories produce 350m bras and 430m vests and pairs of pants every year. They have made Gurao a prosperous and polluted place. But …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-04-18

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2016-04-18

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM ended last week on a firm note.  Given the absence of any Fed-specific risks or any major US data releases, that firmness could carry over into this week.  The failure to reach an agreement in Doha by oil pro...

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-04-15

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2016-04-15

Bank Indonesia will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its new benchmark policy rate The ruling party in South Korea unexpectedly lost parliamentary elections The Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy to recession settings Turkey has nominated its next central bank chief The Brazilian special lower house committee voted 38-27 in favor of …

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Charles Hugh Smith on An Economy of One

2016-04-13

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Charles Hugh Smith joins Doug Miller on An Economy of One to discuss ways to develop skills that will make you more employable in today’s challenging economy. The article: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar16/min-wage-purgatory3-16.html You can find Charles’ blog at www.oftwominds.com His books: http://www.oftwominds.com/CHS-books.html

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 04 01 16 – Our “Lawnmower Economy” w/Charles Hugh Smith

2016-04-12

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ABSTRACT: http://www.gordontlong.com/Macro_Analytics.htm#04-08-16

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-04-11

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2016-04-11

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Some dovish signals from the Fed and a bounce in oil prices helped EM end last week on a firm note.  This week, the US retail sales report could be important, and the same goes for CPI and PPI data too.  The Fed?...

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-04-08

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2016-04-08

Bank Indonesia signaled it may pause its easing cycle.  Senior Deputy Governor Adityaswara said “We want to see the impact on growth and inflation before we do the next cut.”  Elsewhere, Governor Martowardojo said that the central bank must be carefu...

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Frisky Yen Upsets Japan’s GOSPLAN

2016-04-06

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2016-04-06

  It Wasn’t Supposed to Do That… When you’re a central banker in a pure fiat money system and even your ability to print your own currency into oblivion is questioned by the markets, you really have a problem. This is actually funny on quite a number...

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Latin America – Seven Ugly Sisters in Deep Political Trouble

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

Get beyond endless Latin American headlines burning column inches and you come to far broader strategic conclusion: The seven ‘ugly Latino sisters’, namely Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina are all deep political trouble from collapsed benchmark prices.

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What Killed the Middle Class?

The Great Prosperity and Regression
If the four structural trends highlighted below don't reverse, the middle class is heading for extinction. Everyone knows the middle class is fading fast. I've covered this issue in depth for years, for example: Honey, I Shrunk the Middle Class: Perhaps 1/3 of Households Qualify (December 28, 2015) and What Does It Take To Be Middle Class? (December 5, 2013)

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-03-20

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2016-03-20

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened political concerns in Brazil and South Africa. Taiwan reports February export orders Monday, which are …

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Weekly Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

2016-03-18

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2016-03-18

China press is reporting that policymakers are drafting rules for a so-called Tobin tax on yuan transactions.  This would seem to go against China’s efforts at making the yuan more accessible and liquid.  While it could deter speculative activity, th...

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Can we train our brains to process information differently? | The Economist

2016-03-18

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Reading Braille is a tactile activity. But an experiment by researchers at Jagiellonian University in Poland shows that sighted people can coax the visual part of our brains to read it. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Check out Economist Films: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like …

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Why concussion in sport needs to be tackled | The Economist

2016-03-15

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New research suggests that repeated concussion may lead to CTE, a degenerative brain disease. Sports like American football and rugby need better safeguards for players. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Check out Economist Films: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/...

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Charles -Hugh- Smith – Nearly- Free- University

2016-03-14

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http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html Like #Berniesanders, economist, author, and financial blogger Charles Hugh Smith believes college should be free (or nearly free.) The way to do this, he says, is not by taxing others, but by re-thinking traditional educational delivery methods (ex: expensive buildings, classrooms, professors, etc.) and taking advantage of modern technology. Higher education as currently delivered, …

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