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Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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The Wrong People Have An Innate Tendency To Stand Out

2017-05-12

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2017-05-12

Japan Government Bond Yields, January 1985 - May 2017
I don’t think Milton Friedman would have made much of chess player. For all I know he might have been a grand master or something close to that rank, but as much as his work is admirable it invites too the whole range of opposite emotion. He was the champion libertarian of the free market who rescued economics from the ravages of New Deal socialism, but in doing so he simply created the avenue for where Economics of that kind could be transposed...

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Noose Or Ratchet

2017-05-11

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2017-05-11

Quarterly Report On Bank Derivative Activities, April 1995 - April 2016
losing the book on Q4 2016 balance sheet capacity is to review essentially forex volumes. The eurodollar system over the last ten years has turned far more in this direction in addition to it becoming more Asian/Japanese. In fact, the two really go hand in hand given the native situation of Japanese banks.

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Auto Pressure Ramps Up

2017-05-10

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2017-05-10

Motor Vehicle Sales And Production, January 2011 - May 2017
The Los Angeles Times today asked the question only the mainstream would ask. “Wages are growing and surveys show consumer confidence is high. So why are motor vehicle sales taking a hit?” Indeed, the results reported earlier by the auto sector were the kind of sobering figures that might make any optimist wonder.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-05-09

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2017-05-09

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched.

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How many countries in the world are fully democratic?

2017-05-09

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What makes a democracy? Members of the public discuss what constitutes a democratic country, and how many true democracies exist. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like …

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Emerging Markets Preview

2017-05-08

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2017-05-08

EM FX got some limited traction as the week closed, helped by stabilizing commodity prices.  However, oil, copper, and iron ore have all broken important technical levels that suggest further weakness ahead.  We also think the FOMC and jobs data support our view that the next Fed hike will be in June.  This backdrop should keep EM on the defensive this week.

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Emerging Markets: Buyer Beware – An Interview with Jayant Bhandari

2017-05-07

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2017-05-07

Jayant Bandari
Maurice Jackson of Proven & Probable has once again interviewed one of our friends, namely Jayant Bhandari, a frequent and highly valued contributor to Acting Man. Jayant is probably best known to our readers for his strong criticism of the economic and nationalist policies implemented by prime minister Narendra Modi in India since he decreed the demonetization of the bulk of the cash currency circulating in the country (see his most recent article...

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China: Blatant Similarities

2017-05-07

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2017-05-07

China NBS Manufacturing PMI, April 2007 - April 2017
Declines in several of the world’s PMI’s in April have furthered doubts about the global “reflation.” But while many disappointed, some sharply, it isn’t just this one month that has sown them. In China, for example, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment indices declined to 6-month lows.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-05-06

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2017-05-06

Relations between China and North Korea appear to be worsening. The THAAD missile shield has been deployed earlier than expected in South Korea. An amendment to India’s Banking Regulation Act gives the RBI more power to address bad loans. Tensions are rising between Czech Prime Minister Sobotka and Finance Minister Babis. Brazil pension reform bill was passed 23-14 in the lower house special committee.

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This Is Not Expansion

2017-05-06

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2017-05-06

Real GDP Trends 2011-2017
Back in October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released GDP figures that suggested what those behind “reflation” had hoped. After a near miss to start 2016, the economy had shaken off the effects of “transitory” weakness, mainly manufacturing and oil, poised to perform in a manner consistent with monetary policy rhetoric.

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When Putin met Merkel: drawn by Kal

2017-05-05

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How does KAL, The Economist’s editorial cartoonist, bring to life political encounters? Watch him draw this week’s KAL cartoon Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The …...

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Clickbait: Bernanke Terrifies Stock Investors, Again

2017-05-03

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2017-05-03

Unstable GDP Revised, April 2011 - April 2017
If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.

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Defining Labor Economics

2017-05-02

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2017-05-02

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Dec 2000 - 2016
Economics is a pretty simple framework of understanding, at least in the small “e” sense. The big problem with Economics, capital “E”, is that the study is dedicated to other things beyond the economy. In the 21st century, it has become almost exclusive to those extraneous errands. It has morphed into a discipline dedicated to statistical regression of what relates to what, and the mathematical equations assigned to give those relationships some...

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Birmingham, Alabama’s children helped change America’s laws on racial discrimination | The Economist

2017-05-02

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Gwendolyn Webb has been a civil rights activist since she was 14 years old. She tells us what happened when she took part in a seminal civil rights march in Birmingham, Alabama that turned the world’s attention to their struggle for equality Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 How did a …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

EM FX ended last week on a mixed note. Indeed, the week and the month were also very much mixed for EM, reflecting a variety of global and country-specific drivers impacting these countries. This week’s US jobs data could bring Fed tightening back as a major driver for EM.

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Housing’s Echo Bubble Now Exceeds the 2006-07 Bubble Peak

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

US S&P Case-Shiller SF Home Price Index, 1980 - 2017
A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

Moody’s moved the outlook on Vietnam’s B1 rating from stable to positive. Nigeria’s central bank introduced a new FX window for portfolio investors. Moody’s moved the outlook on Romania’s Baa3 rating from positive to stable. Central Bank of Russia accelerated its easing cycle. Central Bank of Turkey delivered a hawkish surprise. Brazil’s lower house easily approved the labor reforms, but popular resistance is rising.

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‘Dollar’ ‘Improvement’

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

US TIC Official Buying Of US Treasury Bonds And Notes, February 2013 - February 2017
According to the headline TIC statistics, foreign central banks have in the past six months sold the fewest UST’s since the 6-month period ended November 2015. That may indicate an easing of “dollar” pressure in the private markets due to “reflation” sentiment.

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Who Will Live in the Suburbs if Millennials Favor Cities?

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

America's Economic Output
Who's going to pay bubble-valuation prices for the millions of suburban homes Baby Boomers will be off-loading in the coming decade as they retire/ downsize?Longtime readers know I follow the work of urbanist Richard Florida, whose recent book was the topic of Are Cities the Incubators of Decentralized Solutions?(March 14, 2017).

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PBoC: Mechanical Tightening PBoC is China Central Bank

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

PBOC Balance Sheet, March 2011 - March 2017
The mainstream narrative as it relates to Chinese money is “tightening.” Having survived the economic downturn last year, we are to believe that the PBOC is once again on bubble duty. They raised their reverse repo rates, considered to be their policy benchmarks, three times up to mid-March.

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