Tag Archive: newsletter

The Most Important UK Election of the Century So Far

2019-12-15

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2019-12-15

There’s only one story in the UK this morning – it’s the day Britain goes to the polls. It’s no exaggeration to say that this election is probably the most important of the century so far. If the ruling Conservative party wins a clear majority, then some form of Brexit is almost certain to go ahead.

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Why the Courts Aren’t All They’re Supposed to Be

2019-12-15

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2019-12-15

In the United States, law courts routinely hand out court order mandating payments to victims. And then do little to enforce them. For example, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2015 only 43.5 percent of custodial parents received the full amount of court-ordered child support payments. 25.8 percent received partial payment while 30.7 percent — a figure which is trending higher — received no payments.

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Negativzinsen ab dem ersten Franken?

2019-12-14

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2019-12-14

Seit fünf Jahren bittet die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) hiesige Banken zur Kasse. Diese bezahlen auf Giroeinlagen ab einer bestimmten Höhe einen Negativzins von 0.75 Prozent. Die Banken belasten diesen «Strafzins» vermehrt Kunden mit hohen Bargeldbeständen - meist erst ab mehreren hunderttausend Franken.

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Fritz Zurbrügg – «Wir machen nicht Geldpolitik für irgendwelche Sektoren»

2019-12-14

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2019-12-14

Im Dezember 2014 wurden sie von der Schweizerischen Nationalbank angekündigt, am 15. Januar 2015 dann überfallartig eingeführt: Die Negativzinsen von 0,75 Prozent. Damals ging man davon aus, dass die harte Massnahme der Schweizer Währungshüter zwei, maximal drei Jahre dauern würden.

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Swiss firms’ investments double abroad  

2019-12-14

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2019-12-14

Companies in Switzerland invested double the amount abroad in 2018 than the previous year, figures show. But foreign investors withdrew capital from Switzerland due to a US tax reform. In 2018, companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 61 billion abroad ($62 billion) (compared to CHF30 billion in 2017). Around three-quarters of the direct investment were from firms in the services sector, the Swiss National Bank said on Friday.

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ECB: Preview of the review

2019-12-14

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2019-12-14

Macroeconomic Staff Projections, 2019-2022
We see the ECB remaining on hold throughout next year although we believe it could tweak some of the technical parameters of its toolkit. The first press conference of any new ECB President is an event in itself, and this time will be no different. Christine Lagarde's debut this week will understandably attract a lot of attention as the media and market participants scrutinise both form and substance.

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Retail digital franc remains taboo for Switzerland

2019-12-14

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2019-12-14

Switzerland has ruled out the possibility of a central bank-issued digital franc for the general public in the foreseeable future. The government has backed up the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) fears that this would lead to financial instability. Responding to a parliamentary question, the Federal Council on Friday said an ongoing project to produce a digital franc that is restricted for use by financial players was a more sensible option than a...

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Lagarde Channels Past Self As To Japan Going Global

2019-12-14

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2019-12-14

Europe Industrial Production, 1993-2019
As France’s Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde objected strenuously to Ben Bernanke’s second act. Hinted at in August 2010, QE2 was finally unleashed in November to global condemnation. Where “trade wars” fill media pages today, “currency wars” did back then. The Americans were undertaking beggar-thy-neighbor policies to unfairly weaken the dollar.

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Risk Assets Rally as Major Tail Risks Ease

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

The biggest tail risks impacting markets this year have cleared up; risk assets are rallying, while safe haven assets are selling off. During the North American session, US November retail sales will be reported. Russia central bank cut rates 25 bp to 6.25%, as expected.

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FX Daily, December 13: Stunning Tory Victory and US-China Trade Boosts Risk Assets

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Overview: The combination of a US-China trade deal and exit polls showing the Tories securing a majority in the House of Commons boosted risk assets, sent sterling flying, and the euro sharply higher. Separately, the Fed stepped up its efforts to make as smooth as possible funding over the turn of the year.

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Referenzzins – SNB-Direktorin Maechler drängt auf rasche Saron-Umstellung

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank hat vor einem halben Jahr den SNB-Leitzins eingeführt, weil der zuvor verwendete Referenzzins Libor ein Ablaufdatum hat. Seither haben die Währungshüter den Saron im Fokus. Dieser soll von den Marktteilnehmern nun konsequenter verwendet werden.

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Geldpolitik – Trotz steigender Kritik: Schweizerische Nationalbank lässt Negativzins unverändert

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) belässt den Leitzins auf dem seit fast fünf Jahren geltenden Rekordtief von minus 0,75 Prozent. Das gab die SNB am Donnerstag an ihrer vierteljährlich stattfindenden geldpolitschen Lagebeurteilung bekannt.

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Can Swiss business and human rights co-exist?

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Switzerland performs a delicate dance when it comes to promoting business interests, maintaining neutrality and defending human rights. Daniel Warner looks at recent examples and the stakes at play. Doing business with other countries and promoting human rights can and do go hand in hand, Swiss State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Pascale Baeriswyl recently told swissinfo.ch.

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The FOMC Channels China’s Xi As To Japan Going Global

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Economic Projections FOMC, 2013-2016
The massive dollar eruption in the middle of 2014 altered everything. We’ve talked quite a lot about what Euro$ #3 did to China; it sent that economy into a dive from which it wouldn’t escape. And in doing so convinced the Chinese leadership to give growth one more try before changing the game entirely once stimulus inevitably failed.

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Why Central Banks Aren’t Really Setting Interest Rates

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Mainstream thinking considers the central bank a key factor in the determination of interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates, the central bank, it is argued, can influence the entire interest rate structure by creating expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy.

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FX Daily, December 12: Enguard Lagarde

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

With the FOMC meeting delivered no surprises, attention turns to the ECB meeting as the UK go to the polls. Lagarde will hold her first press conference as ECB president today, and it will naturally command attention. Equities are advancing today, and tech appears to be leading the way. In Asia Pacific, Taiwan and South Korea rallied more than 1%, while the Hang Seng gapped higher to almost its best level in three weeks.

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Monetary policy assessment of 12 December 2019

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Conditional Inflation Forecast, December 2019
The Swiss National Bank is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the SNB at −0.75%. It remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. The expansionary monetary policy continues to be necessary given the inflation outlook in Switzerland.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2019: -2.5 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2019
12.12.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2019 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.5 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with November 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.5%.

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Money for nothing – Swiss government gets paid to borrow

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

Imagine borrowing CHF 105,500 but only having to repay CHF 100,000 in 20 years time, including interest. You’d get an interest free loan plus an extra CHF 5,500 to keep. This is what the Swiss federal government will do on 20 December 2019, except it will borrow CHF 196.6 million by issuing zero interest bonds at a price of 105.5%. The government will generate a CHF 10.25 million windfall.

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Nestlé identifies over 18,000 child labourers in cocoa supply chain

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

As part of its monitoring programme, Swiss multinational Nestlé has identified 18,283 children performing “unacceptable” tasks at cocoa farms that supply beans to the company. Over half have been rehabilitated following company intervention. In 2012, Nestlé established a Child Labor Monitoring and Remediation System (CLMRS) in partnership with the International Cocoa Initiative (ICI) in the Ivory Coast to identify children at risk of carrying out...

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