Tag Archive: newsletter

Julius Bär takes CHF99 million hit on ailing Italian unit

2019-11-20

by

2019-11-20

Swiss wealth manager Julius Bär has downgraded its expectations for attracting new assets from rich clients and announced a CHF99 million ($100 million) write-down on its troubled Italian subsidiary Kairos. Julius Bär issued the warning on Tuesday, less than three months into the tenure of new CEO Philipp Rickenbacher.

Read More »

Political and Social Conflict Is Accelerating: Here’s Why

2019-11-20

by

2019-11-20

Macro Messages 2019
All the status quo "fixes" only hasten the collapse of the status quo. That economic, social and political conflict is accelerating is self-evident. What's open to debate are the core drivers of conflict / disorder /unraveling. Here's the core self-reinforcing dynamic in my view: 1. The status quo elites can no longer mask soaring costs of essentials nor soaring wealth / income inequality between the top .01% (Oligarchs), the top 9.99% who enrich...

Read More »

EM FX Model for Q4 2019

2019-11-20

by

2019-11-20

EM FX has rallied sharply in recent weeks, helped by growing optimism that we’ve seen the worst of the US-China trade war. Given our more constructive outlook on EM, we believe MSCI EM FX should eventually test the 1657.50 high from July. We see continued divergences within the asset class. Our 1-rated (strongest fundamentals) grouping for Q4 2019 consists of TWD, THB, PHP, CNY, and KRW.

Read More »

Swiss company shares traded as digital tokens

2019-11-20

by

2019-11-20

A Swiss-German consortium has successful traded company shares on a blockchain-style digital platform using a Swiss franc-backed stablecoin to instantly settle the transaction. The trade marked a significant step towards creating a new breed of stock exchange.

Read More »

Don’t Want a Liquidity Trap? More Saving Is the Answer

2019-11-20

by

2019-11-20

With interest rates in many countries close to zero or even negative, some commentators are of the view that monetary policy of the central banks are likely to become less effective in navigating the economy. In fact it is held that we have most likely reached a situation that the economy is approaching a liquidity trap. But what does this mean?

Read More »

Dollar Stabilizes as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2019-11-19

by

2019-11-19

Press reports suggest that the mood in Beijing is pessimistic after President Trump pushed back against tariff rollbacks. Fed Chair Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday. Hungary is expected to keep rates steady; the deadline to form a government in Israel is fast approaching. RBA released dovish minutes from its November policy meeting.

Read More »

Things the UN does (that you might not know about)

2019-11-19

by

2019-11-19

What did the United Nations ever do for us? At the risk of a bit of cliched riffing on that famous scene in Monty Python’s Life of Brian, this month’s column is going to take a look at things the UN does that you may not know about. And one thing in particular: promoting fair and equitable access to the internet.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2019: exports fall but remain stable

2019-11-19

by

2019-11-19

Switzerland Trade Balance, October 2019
In October 2019, Swiss foreign trade declined in both traffic directions. Exports fell sharply (-5.3%); however, they had jumped 8.8% the previous month, setting the bar very high. Imports fell 2.4%. Since the beginning of the year, foreign trade has thus revealed stagnation. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 2.4 billion francs.

Read More »

Most Swiss prefer home grown eggs, meat and dairy

2019-11-19

by

2019-11-19

Recently published statistics suggest most Swiss prefer home grown animal products. Three quarters (75%) of those surveyed said they preferred Swiss eggs and more than half preferred Swiss meat (51%) and dairy products (59%).

Read More »

If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?

2019-11-19

by

2019-11-19

Fed balance sheet 2018-2019
Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham Lincoln famously recounted in 1862: 'If I should call a sheep's tail a leg, how many legs would it have?'

Read More »

True US Economy About To Be ‘Revealed’ – Stockman Interview

2019-11-19

by

2019-11-19

David Stockman is the former budget director for President Ronald Reagan and author of “Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and the Fantasy of MAGA”. He believes that the market “can’t digest” all the money flooding into Wall Street and that the Federal Reserve responded with panic.

Read More »

The Perversity of Negative Interest, Report 17 Nov

2019-11-18

by

2019-11-18

Gold and Silver Prices
Today, we want to say two things about negative interest rates. The first is really simple. Anyone who believes in a theory of interest that says “the savers demand interest to compensate for inflation” needs to ask if this explains negative interest in Switzerland, Europe, and other countries. If not, then we need a new theory (Keith just presented his theory at the Austrian Economics conference at King Juan Carlos University in Madrid—it is...

Read More »

Globalist-Endorsed War on Cash May Be China’s Next Terrifying Weapon

2019-11-18

by

2019-11-18

Recent protests in Hong Kong, along with the resulting fall out from international corporations questioned for their relationships with mainland China, has placed a renewed focus on the authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party. This has led to several articles identifying ways in which Western countries have learned from the CCP, including Europe's growing embrace of web censorship and growing interest in the social credit system rolled out...

Read More »

FX Daily, November 18: Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week

2019-11-18

by

2019-11-18

Overview: Equities in Europe and the US look to extend their six-week rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gets back on the winning way after stumbling last week. Despite the escalation of the conflict in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 1.35% to lead the region and recoup a chunk of last week's 4.8% slump. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 puts the European benchmark within spitting distance of the four-year high set recently.

Read More »

Negativzinsen für Kunden bei Raiffeisen vorerst vom Tisch

2019-11-18

by

2019-11-18

Auf die Frage, ob auch die Raiffeisen-Gruppe künftig Strafzinsen verrechnen will, erklärte der 58-jährige Lachappelle: "Ich kann mir das nicht vorstellen." Wenn bei Sparkonti Negativzinsen eingeführt würden, sei die Gefahr gross, dass es zu einem "Bank Run" komme - also dass die Sparer ihr Geld von den Banken abziehen.

Read More »

Swiss retailers brace for ‘Black Friday’ sales as shoppers raise credit limits

2019-11-18

by

2019-11-18

The busiest shopping day of the year in the United States has become big business in Switzerland. But, some worry about the risks of consumers falling into debt and the pressure the Black Friday “holiday” puts on employees and the postal service.

Read More »

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-18

by

2019-11-18

EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.

Read More »

Negativzinsen, unser notwendiges Übel

2019-11-17

by

2019-11-17

Warum die Schweizer Negativzinspolitik trotz aller leidigen Nebenwirkungen bis auf weiteres unumgänglich ist. Negativzinsen in der Schweiz sind ein Sonderfall. Denn die Schweiz hat keine Negativzinsen, um das Wirtschaftswachstum anzukurbeln oder um bedrohte Schuldner vor dem Zusammenbruch zu retten. Die Negativzinsen hierzulande haben nur einen einzigen Grund: Ein weiteres Erstarken des Schweizer Frankens soll verhindert werden.

Read More »

Ageing population threatens Swiss prosperity, study warns

2019-11-17

by

2019-11-17

Switzerland must do more to find employment options for older citizens and increase work productivity says the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco). If not, prosperity for all will decline as the population ages. The median age of the Swiss population has risen to 43 compared to 32 in 1970. By 2060 this will rise further to 48-years-old going by current fertility rates.

Read More »