Tag Archive: Gold

15 Years of Bubbles, Busts and Failed Monetary Policy

the stock market and dot com bubble


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Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

2012-12-27

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2012-12-27

Quantitative Easing Mechanisms
The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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Gold, CHF, Brent Arbitrage Trading after Negative CS, UBS Interest Rates

2012-12-01

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2012-12-01

gold price usd/chf 1972 2012
  Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …

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Seasonal Factors on Oil

spot crude by month subsamples
Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 the best.

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SNB Results Q3 2012: SNB Radically Reduces Euro Share from 60% to 48%

2012-11-02

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2012-11-02

snb q3 breakdown in currencies usd eur gbp
SNB Q3 Profits: 10 billion francs   The Swiss National Bank (SNB) radically reduced its euro share, in the third quarter from 60% to 48%, and bought US dollars and sterling instead. In the second quarter, however, it increased the euro share from 51% to 60% and concentrated on buying euros. Given that the EUR/USD was … Continue reading...

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IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012

2012-10-12

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2012-10-12

This link  on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

2012-10-11

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2012-10-11

Gold 2003-2012
As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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Isn’t it wonderful to trade with a strong central bank behind you?

2012-09-13

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2012-09-13

DOCU payout UBS
  Isn’t it wonderful to have a strong central bank like the SNB sitting behind you when trading Forex? Losses are limited to the floor of 1.20 and in the meantime you can gain forward swaps with the higher euro zone interest rates. Today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided in its monetary policy assessment …

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SNB prints nearly 5 billion francs in one week, FX traders poised to get ripped off

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

monetary expansion snb
  As we expected in our post “What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?“, long-time investors, global macro funds and US investment banks are moving into gold and the Swiss franc again.  The SNB had to buy euros and print new Swiss francs of around 5 billion francs last week, as … Continue reading »

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What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

SNB Reserves vs. EURCHF
  On Friday there was a big movement in the EUR/CHF. First it went up to 1.2154,  fell later down to 1.2080 in the main American trading and rose again to 1.21 in the low-volume trading time. We repeat our entry from Friday, because we continuously updated the post after new developments, e.g. after the … Continue reading »

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The Swiss television interview with Thomas Jordan, or was it Leonid Brezhnev ?

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

   Today Thomas Jordan gave a quick interview in the Swiss television. Everything was so well prepared and as sterilized. Thomas Jordan learned all answers by heart and was answered the questions about one second after the question was asked. It reminded me of an interview in Soviet television with former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Each …

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SNB only major central bank missing at Jackson Hole, are important SNB decisions looming ?

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
  The Jackson Hole Symposium is traditionally a meeting of global central bankers, here the 2010 attendance list. This year it takes place between August 30 and September 1. Central bankers assemble  The annual economic symposium for central bankers staged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City begins in Jackson Hole, Colorado (until September 1). …

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Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?

2012-08-16

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2012-08-16

Fed's Fav Inflation Expectations WSJ
  At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if  needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …

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How former central bankers stepped up against the central banks

Central Bankers against Central Bankers Banned Weber Stark Issing
There are already three former European central bankers who criticize more or less openly the European Central Bank (ECB).

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SNB results: SNB invested 77% of the huge Q2 increase in reserves into Euros. Peg at risk ?

2012-07-31

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2012-07-31

snb q2 currency breakdown eur usd gbp
  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a profit of 6.5 billion Swiss Franc for the first half year (H1). After a loss of 1.7 bln. francs in the first quarter (Q1), it had a 8.2 billion profit for the second quarter (Q2). The Q2 SNB results of 8.2 bln. CHF were less than our … Continue reading »

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SNB Results: SNB poised for 10 billion CHF quarterly profit

2012-07-26

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2012-07-26

jordan vs. ackermann was it a pyhrrus Victory ? snb results q2/2012
  On July 31st the Swiss National Bank will publish interim results for the second quarter 2012. Already now we offer  an estimate to our readers. Our estimate does not cover the central bank’s Forex trading results, they are difficult to estimate. A central bank is not a day trader, therefore the influence should be limited. …

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Guest Post: Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement

2012-07-24

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2012-07-24

Beppe Grillo
Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain 1) Rise of the Five Star Movement 2) 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

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2012-07-04

On the way to a recession
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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