Tag Archive: Gold

Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

2013-10-27

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2013-10-27

House Prices against income China US Britain
Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings.   Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K, private NFPs to 126K, both against 180K expected. Especially the private NFPs were disappointing. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.3% …

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Week October 14 to 18, A Close Look at China’s Fundamental Data

2013-10-21

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2013-10-21

  Weekly Overview of FX Rates Movements The week was driven by the following factors: Solid Chinese economic data including a 7.8% rise in GDP. The end of the debt ceiling debate, at least for now. The expectation by the Fed member Evans that the government shutdown has delayed Fed tapering. San Francisco Fed’s Williams …

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Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week October 7 to Oct. 12

2013-10-13

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2013-10-13

Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) .   Weekly Overview Hopes on a compromise between Obama and republicans on the U.S. debt ceiling and high U.S. initial unemployment claims  sustained …

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Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week September 30 to October 4

2013-10-06

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2013-10-06

FX Movements September 30 - October 4
Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) . The clear winner of the week was the Aussie, supported by a positive PMI and positive news from the RBA. In the previous …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 23 to September 27

2013-09-29

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2013-09-29

Weekly FX Price Movements September 23-27
Weekly summary of fundamental news on FX with a focus on CHF and gold price movements. Weekly price movements The U.S. budget discussion and rather bad U.S. fundamental data made JPY and CHF the winners of the week. After weeks of improvements, the currencies of the Emerging Markets and carry trade currencies, like NZD, AUD …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 16 to September 20

2013-09-22

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2013-09-22

FX News 0909-1509 gold silver CHF
Weekly summary of fundamental news with a focus on CHF and gold price movements. Friday, September 20:The St. Louis Fed president James Bullard explained that the Fed was close to tapering 10 bln. $ and that markets overreacted after the FOMC with their strong performance. As a consequence the S&P500 inched down by 0.6% while …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 9 to Sept. 13

2013-09-15

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2013-09-15

FX News 0909-1509 gold silver CHF
The weekly summary of global fundamental news with focus on CHF and gold price movements. Friday, September 13:The leading news came from U.S. retail sales and the Michigan consumer sentiment. Retail sales were up +0.2% instead of 0.5% expected, sales excluding autos and gas +0.1% (vs +0.3% exp.) The Michigan consumer sentiment disappointed at 76.8 …

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Our Detailed Estimate of SNB Q2 Results: 17 Billion Francs Loss, The Reality 18 Billion

2013-07-30

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2013-07-30

Swiss National Bank
UPDATE: July 30th, 2013: Our estimate for the quarterly loss missed the reality by 1 billion francs. The quarter results: 18.3 billion francs loss. The loss for H1 was 7.3 billion CHF. July 1st 2013: We estimate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a loss of 17.3 billion francs in the second quarter 2013. … Continue reading »

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Democracies Like Bubbles, Totalitarian Regimes Hate Them

2013-06-19

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2013-06-19

Totalitarian regimes, like China, fear bubbles and revolutions. Strangely, these regimes help to prevent asset bubbles, and the resulting unequal distribution of wealth between rich asset owners and the poor without assets. Today’s FT article shows how Chinese authorities fear the bubble and the revolution. China cash crunch deepens as PBOC withholds funding Short-term interbank …

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The Cyclical and Exchange-Rate Induced Chinese Slowing

2013-06-09

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2013-06-09

We believe in the Chinese economy, but it has just gone into a cyclical and a exchange-rate induced slowing. Any Cassandra views like recently by Charles Dumas, chief strategist of Lombard Research, but also some of Richard Koo’s earlier views, that there will be a burst of the Chinese housing bubble, are exaggerated. Markets Insight: …

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How Modern Monetary Policy Changed CHF from Gold-Backed to a USD and Euro-Backed Currency

Gold-backed CHF vs. EUR USD backed
we slowly move into an inflationary environment and prices of German Bunds and US Treasuries are falling.... ECB and Fed interest rates seem to be nailed to zero for years.

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Pictet Become “Secular Dollar Bulls” and Gold Bashers: Our Response

2013-06-01

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2013-06-01

  Precisely at the moment when the dollar undergoes a secular bashing with a 6% loss against the yen and 3% against the euro, Pictet publish their “secular dollar bull era” video and recommend investors to avoid gold. “Secular movements” in currency markets are mostly driven by current account (CA) surpluses or deficits, while housing …

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EUR/CHF to 1.25?

2013-04-22

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2013-04-22

brent vs. gasoline april 2013
Chinese economy is weaker, the Brent oil price under 100$ , the German DAX near 7500, the USD/JPY near 100, the Australian dollar is dipping. Most assets that are positively correlated to CHF are weaker. Time for EUR/CHF to rise?

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“SNB Concerned”: Does a Yes to the Swiss Gold Referendum Imply an End of the CHF Cap?

Ratio Gold to Balance Sheet SNB
If the upcoming referendum "Save our Swiss gold" wins, the SNB must increase gold holdings from 10% to 20% of its balance sheet. Gold purchases and/or sales of fiat money implies an end of CHF cap.

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Seasonal Factors on Gold, the 19 February Short Trade

Gold came under pressure in early February when stock market strength but also U.S. gas prices rose. US purchases, however, help to improve foreign economies and therefore also the gold price.

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

Sell in May, Come back in October
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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SNB Profit 6 Billion CHF over the Year, 10.9 Billion Loss in Q4/2012

2013-01-17

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2013-01-17

snb q4/2012 income from gold
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement).  The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …

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