Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice
4-16-26 New Highs in a Broken Market — What’s Really Going On?
$SPX $QQQ Markets pushed to new highs despite elevated valuations, high interest rates, and ongoing war in Iran, driven largely by short-term momentum and increased speculative activity like 0DTE options.
This creates a disconnect where price action overrides fundamentals in the near term.
While the rally is real and participation has been rewarded, the risk is assuming this is a stable bull trend, but it is not.
Furthermore, history suggests...
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4-16-26 What Will the Fed Do Next?
With inflation trends shifting, economic data sending mixed signals, and markets hovering near key levels, the big question is: what will the Federal Reserve do next?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the Fed’s current dilemma—balancing inflation control with economic growth—and what it means for interest rates, equities, and bonds.
Key topics include:
0:00 - INTRO
1:04 - Markets Hit 5th All-time High for 2026
6:48 - Markets Up...
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The Market Knew And Proved It Again
On Monday, our Commentary, The Market Knows What You Don't, shared an important lesson about how markets function. The message was timely, as fear and volatility over the prior few weeks had caused great anxiety among many investors. We wrote the following to help investors maintain a north star during these challenging times: Market prices …
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4-15-26 Why This 10%+ Rally Is a Repeatable Setup
This sharp 10%+ rally in $SPX $QQQ, which unfolded in just a few days, was driven less by fundamentals and more by a classic, repeatable setup: extreme bearish sentiment, deeply oversold conditions, and aggressive short-covering.
As fear peaked and positioning turned defensive, the market had already priced in the downside, setting the stage for a rapid reversal.
The move was amplified by underexposure to growth stocks, especially mega-cap...
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4-15-26 Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Taxes, and Your Money
It’s Q&A Wednesday, and with Tax Day here, we’re tackling your biggest questions on markets, taxes, and financial strategy in real time.
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff field questions, from navigating today’s market volatility to making smart, last-minute tax decisions, this episode is driven by what matters most to you. We break down current events, investor concerns, and practical steps you can take right now to stay on track.
Key topics...
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Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?
Believe it or not, it's been 18 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Despite many detailed investigative reports on the events and even the popularity of The Big Short, a box-office hit and bestselling book, the role of subprime mortgages in the near-fatal collapse of the banking system remains a mystery to many investors. …
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Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?
Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled "The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar." She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar. Instead, she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in …
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4-14-26 This Is NOT A New Bull Market — Be Careful
The market $SPX rally looks constructive, with a rising 200-day moving average, improving breadth, and stable earnings, but it remains a fragile setup.
We haven’t seen the kind of deterioration that typically leads to new lows, yet key risks remain.
If breadth weakens, earnings estimates get cut, or #crudeoil prices stay elevated, the downside could reopen quickly.
The Fed is likely stuck, and geopolitical uncertainty adds another layer of...
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4-14-26 Are Financial Advisor Fees Really Worth It?
Are financial advisor fees really worth it—or are you paying more than you should?
Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down the true value behind advisory fees and what investors should expect in return. It’s not just about investment performance. A good advisor delivers portfolio construction, risk management, tax efficiency, and long-term financial planning—all designed to help you build and protect wealth.
Also in this episode, Lance and Jon...
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Stable Coins Versus Banks: The Battle Over Interest Rates
A battle is raging in the Halls of Congress between the banks and the crypto industry. The spark was a judgment by the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, which recommended that stablecoins be allowed to pay interest to their holders. As a result of the Genius Act, passed almost a year ago, stablecoins are … Continue...
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4-13-26 Is The Correction Over? Watch These Signals
The rally was expected after 5 straight weeks of declines, driven by extreme bearish sentiment and oversold conditions.
Key signals flipped bullish, including a move above the 200-day moving average, VIX below 20, and stable earnings expectations.
That improves the outlook over the next several months, but doesn’t eliminate volatility or the risk of a retest.
The next move depends heavily on macro factors like oil prices and geopolitical...
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4-13-26 S&P 500 Rally: What Comes Next?
The S&P 500 just surged 8.2% off its March lows—reclaiming key technical levels and sitting within striking distance of all-time highs. But is this the start of a sustained move higher, or just a reflexive rally before another pullback?
Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down what drove the rally—from extreme bearish sentiment and a volatility reset, to easing geopolitical tensions—and why those factors matter for investors right now. We...
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The Market Knows What You Don’t
A client and friend asked us a timely question: "Why did we remove our hedge position so quickly after the ceasefire, especially with little evidence it will hold?" The simple answer is the market knows more than all of us. Market prices are based on all available information. Some of the information is widely known, … Continue reading »
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S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.
Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook changed dramatically in a matter of days. After five consecutive weeks of decline driven by …
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Q1 Earnings Season: Buy Or Fade The Rally?
🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Stocks Surge On Relief Note: I am traveling home from the UK today, so this week's missive will be short. Also, I had to write it on Friday before the U.S. markets officially closed. So, any discrepancies will be corrected next week when the full newsletter returns … Continue reading »
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4-10-26 What To Do After You Inherit Money
NOTE: Time codes for this episode are incorrect, pending YouTube's loonnnngggggg processing of today's video.
Receiving an inheritance can be life-changing—but without a clear plan, it can also lead to costly mistakes. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty walk through the critical steps to take after inheriting money, from protecting the assets and understanding tax implications to building a long-term financial strategy.
Key topics include:...
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4-10-26 The Economy Was Already Weak Before Iran & Oil — Don’t Forget That
The economy was already weakening before Iran and the oil shock—growth had slowed, the labor market was stagnant, and inflation was easing.
The surge in oil simply distorted the picture, hurting sentiment and pushing the Fed into a tougher stance.
If oil eventually normalizes, the real trend should re-emerge: a softer economy that may need support, not tighter policy.
Until then, markets are reacting to noise more than underlying fundamentals....
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Delta Has An Ace In The Hole
On Wednesday, Delta Airlines announced it beat earnings expectations and, more importantly, its CEO maintained previous forward guidance despite the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian cited a $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by the conflict. While that added expense should weigh on earnings, Delta has a unique hedge that …
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Oil Shock: Will The Fed Intervene (Part 2)
Last week, we discussed the risk of an oil shock leading to a recession. To wit: "After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got …
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4-9-26 US–Iran Deal: What Investors Must Watch Next
Markets are reacting fast to signs of a potential resolution between the U.S. and Iran—but what should investors actually focus on next?
A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough can spark a powerful short-term rally, driven by falling oil prices, easing geopolitical risk, and improved sentiment. But history shows these moves are often just the beginning—not the end—of the real story.
Jon Penn & Michael Lebowitz break down the key signals...
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