Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will September Be Better than August?

2023-08-28

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(8/28/23) AOC to ban Donald Trump Mug shot glasses? Capitalism at its best. The NVDIA aftermath. More supplemental funding for vaccines: Follow the money. Defining capitalism. Markets having a sloppy month: is better performance ahead? Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech: Blaming Ukraine war for inflation (!) A review of how we measure core inflation. What Powell left out of his speech; "Navigating under cloudy skies." Still plenty of...

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Five Steps to Retirement in Five Years

2023-08-25

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(8/25/23) Markets await comments today from Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole confab; inflation is not going away, and is affecting financial planning: What is your risk tolerance now? Five steps to retirement in five years: What's your number? Healthcare expenses; Medicare mistakes to avoid; Reducing debt (what is your debt costing you?); What are your savings rates? Budgeting and knowing income stream sourcing. Why and when are more workers...

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Will Jerome Powell Address Stock Market at Jackson Hole?

2023-08-24

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(8/24/23) NVDIA's earnings report blows off the doors; market action will be driven by this news today. But NVDIA outlook is for slower growth moving forward. The company is fast on track to be as big if not bigger than Microsoft. Meanwhile, Wall Street is starting to ratchet down estimates for 2024, approaching reality. Can the S&P clear 4,400 with seasonal weakness still ahead? The Jackson Hole Preview: former Fed Gov. Bullard sees economic...

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What Do Rising Treasury Yields Mean?

2023-08-23

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(8/23/23) It's NVDIA Report Day: The NVDIA Drinking Game: How many times will they mention, "AI?" Economic data & the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Manufacturing data is not improving; what happens on the Services side? Dick's, Nike, Target, et al earnings and outlooks not good; WalMart & Kohl's are okay. Markets rally and sell-off Tuesday. The Barbie Movie: To see or not to see? What's the implication behind rise in Treasury...

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What’s in Store for 2024?

2023-08-22

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(8/22/23) All eyes are on NVDIA's report and the fulfilment(?) of 50% sales increase promises. Sustainability of growth numbers will be key. Fed governors are holding Jackson Hole prelude meetings. VIX has been creeping upward; markets correction of 5%; higher close on Monday, but no buy signal yet triggered. Expect another pullback prior to setting up for October rally; commodities are a concern. What's in store for 2024: A history of normal...

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Should Your Parents Pay for Your Vacation? (8/21/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advis…

2023-08-21

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Are Mandatory Savings Ahead?

2023-08-18

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(8/18/23) Market over-exuberance is now letting off steam; high interest rates are likely here to stay for a while. WalMart results reflecting more traffic from upper-income households suffering impact of inflation. The Peak-65 retirement trend shows less than half of retirees have less than $100k in investible funds; states moving to automatic savings into Roth IRA's; the downside of state-sponsored savings plans: Who administers/custodian?...

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The Fed: “Are We There, Yet?”

2023-08-17

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(8/17/23) The Atlanta Fed is now predicting GDP growth at 5.8% for the 3rd quarter, and another rate increase is expected as liquidity continues to move through the system. The S&P needs to get above 50-DMA; correction is normal, and the bullish trend continues. Target vs WalMart: A tale of two retailers. Consumer sentiment is better; no Recession coming? FOMC meeting minutes reveal more rate hikes to come, but Fed's views are mixed. Keeping a...

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Will the Fed Raise Inflation Target to 3%

2023-08-16

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(8/16/23) The continuing saga of Rocky Racoon at the Roberts' house; Retail Sales are still strong; the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast calls for 5% growth = Inflation is still present, so no rate cuts from the Fed: Markets sell off. Will the Fed raise its Inflation Target to 3%? Economic Data sees no Recession, and more rate hikes are possibility. Markets break the 50-DMA and need to recover by week's end. Market & Data report preview: Bob Doll's...

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Stocks or Bonds?

2023-08-15

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why the Fed Will Cut Rates

2023-08-14

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(8/14/23) August means hot weather in Texas, and the conclusion of earnings season, with a re-focusing on economic data. A burning question at the upcoming Jackson Hole rich guys' confab: What will it take for the Fed to lower rates? Profit margins are lower, but holding; Markets test 50-DMA and bounce. The real Fed funds rate; why the Fed would cut rates: Recession or crisis (the Fed WILL cut rates, just needs a reason). The Saga of the Roberts'...

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Financial Fitness Friday (8/11/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA Adviso…

2023-08-11

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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What Happens if Inflation Ticks-up?

2023-08-10

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(8/10/23) CPI Day: What happens if Inflation ticks-up? No expectation of Fed to react w rate hike; the housing component of CPI, Home Owner Equivalent Rent, lags by 3-months. Tomorrow's PCE report may provide more clarity in direction Fed is likely to go. Markets sell of as correction continues, now down 3%; why bonds are the best bet for now. The Jobs Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) vs Employment numbers: it's all a calculation....

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The Source of Economic Resilience (8/9/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RI…

2023-08-09

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Are Markets Pricing-in Better Times Ahead?

2023-08-08

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(8/8/23) The risk for uptick in Inflation: Is the Fed done? Markets fail test of 20-DMA; expect markets to trend sideways. How markets tend to lead the economy; pricing-in better times ahead? The Market Cycle: is there a move to the upside? Market Predictions for economic recovery: Recession in an election year: The incumbent loses. Incentives for Government to prop up economy until after an election. The stages of the economic cycle. What it takes...

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Rates Can Go Only One Way (down) (8/7/23)

2023-08-07

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(8/7/23) Wrapping up earnings season: 80%+ of major companies will have reported by week's end, with many "beats" of lowered earnings estimates. Meanwhile, economic data is showing signs of concern, but nothing terrible. Employment data is showing a slowing; markets continue their corrective ways: How long can this correction last? Year-over-year math of Inflation: About to enter period in which computed inflation goes back up. What is...

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What Gen-X Needs to Retire

2023-08-04

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(8/4/23) Digesting the Fitch Ratings downgrade: Defining "safety." The Degeneration of American Culture is accelerating; are we becoming Japan? Robert Shiller's "Narrative Encounter;" AI & Productivity: what it means for companies. Does today's workforce even have the skills to utilize AI? Why common sense must be taught (the ill-effects of pandemic lock-down).Corporate culture is a sewer. New rules for Roth in the Secure...

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Why the Fitch Ratings Downgrade Doesn’t Really Matter

2023-08-03

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(8/3/23) Earnings season is seeing unusual reward & punishment for results. Is dis-inflation and 2% growth coming? Earnings beats have lifted markets, bullish sentiment is rising sharply without the benefit of liquidity support. The Market correction begins: breakout of 20DMA is no big deal, but watch the 50DMA. Fixing Government spending and the Fitch Ratings downgrade: It's a joke. Explaining US Debt to Income Ratio; A look at the veracity of...

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Six Signs You’re Ready to Retire

2023-08-02

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(8/2/23) Despite claims of no Recession imminent, tax receipt declines and other indicators belie an emerging weakness in the economy. The timing of a Recession, however, is still uncertain. The NASDAQ remains the winner this year, but negative divergences are beginning to appear. The index has rallied back to January's highs without the benefit of additional stimulus. Fitch Credit Rating Downgrade preview (tune in tomorrow!) Six signs you're ready...

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Markets Summer Heat in Full Swing

2023-08-01

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(8/1/23) Summer is in full-swing, and markets are matching the heat with extreme bullish sentiment. What is the cost of hedging your portfolio over time? No one believes a correction is coming (so it probably will). Companies are receiving no reward for beating (lowered) estimates; the number of companies achieving beats is declining. 3% - 5% correction in August should come as no surprise. Bullishness in S&P 500: Everyone can't wait to get in;...

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