Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Waiting on the Inflation Print | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-10

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Markets have rallied up into resistance over the past few days, consolidating at previous resistance levels, waiting on today's inflation print. [NOTE: At 7:30a CDT, CPI reported "cooler" than expected, at 8.5% year over year.] Weaker inflation will be interpreted as being good for stocks, because the Fed may be compelled to slow their aggressive rate hike campaign. Regardless, markets are very overbought on a short-term basis.

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Anticipating Today’s CPI (8/10/22)

2022-08-10

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(8/10/22) Going back to school in a Recession: July CPI anticipation [NOTE: At 7:30a CDT, CPI reported "cooler" than expected, at 8.5% year over year], and watching the Yield Curve; NFIB sales expectations are plummeting; workers becoming less productive as wages rise; higher prices are being passed on to consumers; childhood diseases & garden hose immunity; Market Commentary: betting on the Fed to pivot; stock analysis: who's down 20%?

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Is the Fed Close to the End? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-09

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(8/9/22) The debates are raging over whether we're seeing the dawning of a new Bull Market, or only a continuation of a Bear Market rally. Who'll be correct? More importantly, what should YOU do at this juncture? Markets have been improving, technically...a nice pattern of rising tops and bottoms has led markets back up to resistance levels from June of this year. If markets fail from this point, it will confirm the Bear Market Rally; however,...

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The Pandemic Effect (8/9/22)

2022-08-09

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(8/9/22) Bemoaning the death of Olivia Newton-John and the loss of our youth; markets' behavior because there's no pressure on the Fed to pivot. Yet. Why flat beer may be the next thing: CO2 shortage, The Roberts' Family vacation: Driving in Italy and Yacht price inflation; hypocrisy of Millennials decrying capitalism on iPhones; NVIDIA & Peloton performance: The post-pandemic effect; lower expectations reflect return to "normal;"...

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Is the Markets’ Bullish Mood Just Hype?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-08

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(8/8/22) Negative market sentiment should lead to lower equity prices, but in the short-term, some bullish patterns emerge. Markets' three-week rally is tempting the media to hype the new, bullish mood. Markets still have a lot of work ahead as the Fed hikes rates and tightens policy in its inflation fight,. That's going to lower economic activity, which will, in turn, force stocks to reprice for that. If markets pull-back, where will support be...

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When Inflation Reduction Becomes Climate Change (8/8/22)

2022-08-08

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(8/8/22) The so-called "Inflation Reduction" Act gets a fresh skin, but it's the same old wine, and its impact on inflation will be to exacerbate the problem further. The newly re-named the "Climate Change & Tax Act" is the same old tax & spend bill as before; the devil is in the details. How the math really works, and why inflation will be lower in 2023, but not down to the Fed's 2% target. 10% of the bill will fund...

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Why the “Inflation Reduction” Act Will Make Things Worse

2022-08-06

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(8/5/22) Today's Jobs Report should shed some light on what companies have been thinking as the economy wanes; are there more layoffs to come? The Inflation Reduction Bill will have unintended consequences; how inflation is hitting back to school expenses; dealing with the question of IRA Conversions; the exceptions to the rule: 72-T. How to leave a legacy with IRA's; investment scams we're seeing; how to keep more of your money and avoid the...

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Has a New Bull Market Started? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-04

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(8/4/22) Markets have been due for a rally following extremes in negative sentiment and positioning by fund managers and hedge funds. The extreme bearishness meant there were no sellers left in the market, setting up for a buying frenzy. Now the headlines are heralding a "new bull market" that "you've got to get in." The markets are predicting the Fed will pivot...BUT, the Fed is saying no such thing, with Fed Pres. Bullard...

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Credit Card Use is Off The Charts!

2022-08-04

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(8/4/22) With too many bears in the markets, and no won left to sell, markets needed a rally to suck bulls back in for one, last ride before The Recession. The unbelievable tone-deafness of SF Fed President Mary Daly; what the increase in credit card usage means; how aggressive will the Fed be in raising rates ahead of Recession? Dueling Farmer's Almanacs differ on the severity of the coming Winter; cooking on the hood of your car in Texas;...

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9 Practical Steps to Managing Inflation

2022-08-03

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Inflation touches every aspect of your life. No one can avoid it because we’re living in an Inflation Nation. There’s no magic elixir against inflation…but our nine-step plan can help you blunt inflation’s effects. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP. 0:40 - Defining Inflation 2:30 - What Sparked this Inflationary Cycle? 3:40 - The Fed's "Transitory" Thesis 5:35...

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Can Markets Sustain July’s Rally? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-03

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(8/3/22) Markets will open higher after a sloppy Tuesday of trading, trying to hold on to the bullish rally that started in July. Markets are now as over-baought as they were in March; markets need to hold the 50-DMA as support. With earnings coming in as a mixed bag, estimates for future earnings are coming down. Markets need to consolidate, and a pullback to the 50-DMA would set up for a stronger rally later. Things are still risky, and we're...

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The Upper Middle Class is Feeling the Squeeze

2022-08-03

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(8/3/22) So we may NOT be in a Recession just yet: There could be positive economic growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters, but afterwards, look out! Robinhood's layoffs could be the prelude to more upheaval in the Jobs market. The economic squeeze on the upper-middle class; Curb-feelers, Mad Max, Cali, Utah, and the Americanization of Mexico; the significance of behavior in M-2 Money Supply. The impact of debt, and changes coming from the Secure Act...

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Will July Strength Carry On to August? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-02

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(8/2/22) Markets are set to open lower today following a strong July; negative sentiment and negative positioning by managers set things up for the strong rally, similar to activity we saw back in March. Could the pattern then be replicated in August? It is now critical that markets hold support at the current 50-DMA. Historically, the month of August tends to be weaker for markets, and September isn't that great, either. Meaning, we've got about...

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When We Think the Recession Will Hit (8/2/22)

2022-08-02

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(8/2/22) Economists' historic definition of "recession" is now being challenged by social media fact-checkers; the Roberts Family meets the neighbors: diversity on parade; market commentary: What August holds for investors; ESG Investing is unraveling; how the government creates more problems than it solves; the economic cycle will take care of itself. The behavior of Treasuries: What happens when the Fed finally pivots; why analysts are...

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“Not Bad” vs “Good” | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-01

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(8/1/22) Markets have been extremely bearish, very over-sold, very bearish, and overdue for a very nice, a countertrend rally, which finally occurred in July. When markets began to come to the realization the deflation may be a bigger issue than inflation, we started to see a rotation out of Value and into Tech. That the bullish set-up that would indicate higher stock prices in the near-term. But as we move into the month of August, which is...

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August Begins: Bull or Bear?

2022-08-01

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(8/1/22) August begins with The Roberts Family in new digs (who's idea was it to move during Houston's hottest summer, ever??) What will the Fed be expected to do in their meeting this month? The Roberts' kids get their independence; shooting down the new PACT Act Spending Bill; how we got from millions to trillions; What happens when the co-pilot leaves the aircraft early; the market conundrum for bears: dealing with contrarian-indicator clients;...

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Life & Money Lessons from Ivana Trump

2022-07-30

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(7/29/22) Richard Rosso channels his inner Janet Yellen with her declaration of "no recession;" Crypto-millionaires and their luxury watches; dealing with sticky inflation. The "recovery" is over; life lessons from Ivana Trump and dealing with ageism; how to plan to age-in-place; Lotto Tickets, cheap entertainment, and funding long term care; why reverse-mortgages should be a last-case option; how to take advantage of cash.

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Fed Hikes Rates Again–What Now? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-28

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(7/28/22) The Fed announced a 75-bp rate hike, as expected; markets rallied on the news the Fed is removing forward guidance, and could slow the velocity of rate increases over time. Markets interpreted that as a pivot in Fed policy, preparing to go back to zero interest rates and market-supportive quantitative easing. The resulting sharp rally in an otherwise bear market belied the Pain Trade by investors, with a case of FOMO: afraid of missing...

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Welcome to the Pain Trade Zone

2022-07-28

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(7/28/22) With the Fed's announced 75-bp rate hike, investors are now in Pain Trade Territory, acting on the FOMO principal of not wanting to miss the markets' bottom when the Fed pivots. Democrats' new plan for $400-billion in government spending to be paid for by imposing a new corporate minimum income tax: The Inflation Fighting Plan, using inflationary tactics in the process. House Speaker Pelosi's husband liquidated chip maker stocks ahead of...

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Is the Bottom In for Microsoft & Google? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-07-27

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(7/27/22) There is an interesting opportunity for investors in companies that miss estimates, yet rally afterwards, despite whatever bad news has been released. Could that be the case with two giants of the S&P and NASDAQ, Microsoft and Google? Additionally, was the less-than-happy news already priced-in to these stocks? Still to be seen is whether they can hold their current bottom, and rally above their 50-DMA. Both stocks are major players...

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