Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?

2022-09-22

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(9/22/22) It's a Trifecta Thursday with the onset of Autumn and the Death of the Roberts' Duber; the Fed raises rates 75-basis points, as expected, but shocks markets by saying higher rates are here to stay through 2023...unless something occurs to cause a change in stance. The Fed's "good intentions" vs reality; markets are now on the same page. The impact of higher rates on Bonds: TINA, FOMO, & YOLO in the Bond market; the...

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Treasuries Respond to Fed’s Rate Hike Binge | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-21

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(9/21/22) The Fed is expected today to raise interest rates by 75-basis points, but the real headline will come from the statement that's issued after the meeting is over: Will Jerome Powell reiterate his hawkish claims from Jackson Hole, or will he backpedal? That news will drive markets into the afternoon. As the Fed continues its rate hike campaign, Treasuries are responding in kind, and at this point, Bonds are cheaper relative to stocks. (A...

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Could Interest Rates Remain High through 2024?

2022-09-21

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(9/1/) The Fed is expected to hike interest rates another 75-basis points today. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot, consisting of the FOMC voting members' positions on interest rates, suggests rates will be at 4.5% by 03, and remain there into 04. Bonds are extremely cheap relative to stocks. This is debunking the TINA (There Is No Alternative) syndrome. As rates rise, those with pensions must consider whether taking monthly distributions or a lump sum is in...

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Will Rates Reach 4%? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-20

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(9/20/22) The latest two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins today; markets rallied off the May support line in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell's remarks tomorrow. It's expected the Fed will hike rates 75-basis points as it continues to fight inflation by slowing the economy, a phenomenon with which the Fed is apparently comfortable. That means earnings will have to come down even more so than already forecast, putting more...

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Why Jerome Powell is Okay with “Below Trend” Growth

2022-09-20

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(9/20/22) It's turning into a sloppy September for markets, even though support held at May's lows on Monday. Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, with markets anticipating the group's next move upward on rates by 75bp. Why is Jerome Powell okay with "below trend" economic growth? The trap of investors' "anchoring;" the Fed's view of markets is the only one that counts. Some economic pain is okay...the Fed is going to act...

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What Happens When Buy-backs Go Away | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-19

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(9/19/22) Markets sold off Friday on a warning from Federal Express suggesting the economy is slowing down much more than folks are letting on. Markets did break through the rising trend line we've been watching, but did hold on to support going back to the June-July level. Futures this morning are trending lower with additional selling pressure following last week's rather vicious sell-off. There still remains some downside risk today, but markets...

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Is a 75bp Rate Increase Already Baked-in?

2022-09-19

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(9/19/22) A bit of distraction to start the morning with all eyes on the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II; the next meeting of the FOMC is on Wednesday, with expectations for a 75-basis point rate increase already "baked into the cake;" there is concern the Fed could go for a 1% rate hike. Goldman is predicting rates at 4 to 4.25% by the end of the year--hopefully the point at which the Fed will halt rate increases. The Stock Buy-back...

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Don’t Let a Tax Torpedo Sink Your Retirement Boat

2022-09-17

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(9/16/22) FedEx's dire predictions are echoing concern of others on the true health of the economy; delivery services are a bellwether of a coming recession. The Fed is in a box; Wal-Mart: If you want deals, we're giving you deals. James Taylor, "Inflation is Dead;" Identifying the Tax Torpedo; the bridge strategy of Tax Torpedo diffusion; when companies get hammered, and the opportunity that's created; America slips in the Global...

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Avoiding Costly Mistakes on the FAFSA (9/15/22)

2022-09-15

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Here is an encore presentation of the September 15, 2022 Lunch & Learn on the FAFSA (Free Application for Student Financial Aid) with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Senior Risk Management Consultant, Chris Liebum. The FAFSA is a vital, first-step towards securing financial aid, either through loans or grants, for your college bound children. 1:30 - The First Step: Available Tools 2:00 - Don't Make These Four Big Mistakes 4:50 - Chris'...

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Could Oil Rally to $95-barrel?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-15

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(9/15/22) The Markets' big 4% drop in markets on news August CPI was 8.3% was the follow up to Monday's 90% upside day and the "bullish upthrust" in the market. The resulting 90% down day completely reversed markets' gains, but markets were able to hold on to the rising trendline of higher lows. Futures are weak this morning, so a test of support at last week's lows will be important today. Add to the mix next week's FOMC meeting, and the...

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How High Will Fed Rates Need to Go?

2022-09-15

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(9/15/22) Markets remain in a broad trading range, even as the Fed prepares for next week's FOMC Meeting: We're witnessing bear market behavior, grinding down investors. The VIX "fear gauge" is remarkably tame. Oil prices could rally to a range of $90-$95/bbl; Michael Lebowitz' motto shifts from "Don't Fight the Fed" to "Follow the Fed," and note its bullish- or bearish-stances. The Fed today (9/15) begins its...

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Financial Media Goes Nuts Over CPI | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-14

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(9/14/22) August CPI clocks-in at a hotter-than-expected 8.3%, and the financial media goes nuts, claiming yesterday's sell-off as "markets in turmoil." The reality was, yes, a big 4% sell-off, but a one-day drop that can only be compared to pre-pandemic market action in June of 2020. But more importantly, markets were able to uphold the bullish, rising trend line that has been building for the past few months. That trend will be tested...

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How CPI Will Impact Social Security COLA

2022-09-14

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(9/14/22) With the latest CPI print at 8.3%, the odds of bigger interest rate increases by the Fed just got better; markets are still within a rising bottom trendline against a declining line of bullishness: Decision time is coming this week, as volatility remains confined. Inflation actually slowed from this time last year; what if you could get more for your money? Lump-sum Pension or long-term payout? How CPI will impact Social Security COLA...

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August Was Hotter Than Expected | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-13

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(9/13/22) The CPI print for August came in at 8.3%, hotter than anticipated. The big question now is whether we've seen the peak of inflation? With markets now solely-dependent upon what the Fed does, rather than on fundamentals, a 75-basis point hike later this month is pretty much a lock. In fact, expectations are for the Fed to go up to 4 to 4.5% on the Fed funds rate. Slower economic growth, slower earnings growth, and higher unemployment are...

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8.3% Inflation: Thinking Ahead of the Fed

2022-09-13

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(9/13/22) All eyes are on today's CPI Report (clocking-in at 8.3% Inflation) and its effects on the economy: What are the numbers within the number, and why does it matter? What will be the Fed's response, and what will it take for the Fed to ease up on rate hikes? The dichotomy of views among Bears vs Bulls: the problem of timing and duration; after 3 Bull Markets, why are 80% of Americans still broke? The White Multi-millionaire Minority. Dealing...

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The Pain-trade is Higher | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-12

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(9/12/22) Markets last week rallied off support, and are now positioned to move higher with a little pain: There is a rising bullish trend line, continuing the pattern of higher lows since the July bottom. However a corresponding, declining trend line that runs right along the 200-DMA is forming a wedge which will create a short term challenge for markets. A rally to the declining trend line is the most logical course, with short term buy signals...

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The “Cash on the Sideline” Myth

2022-09-12

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(9/12/22) Markets are working off excesses; most companies are currently doing okay, CEO's hoping for a "soft landing." The rising bottoms and declining tops are creating a wedge markets will have to painfully resolve. Why there is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines," but there is a dearth of buyers or dearth of sellers. We're now seeing seller exhaustion; looking at a rally within bearish bias. Animal Sleep Patterns; the...

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The True Cost of Aging Exposed

2022-09-10

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(9/9/22) Why Meghan cannot be Queen; The Janet Yellen Economic Roadshow: taxes must return to "norms;" inflation and the "Fair" economy; energy diversification; Brookings Institute: Unemployment must go higher. Understanding the US economy in COVID; Janet Yellen's EV's; the fiscal fight; why having cash is not a bad thing; market preview: Gerber Insurance; The Elder Index & cost of Aging; demographics and changes to work...

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The Death Cross & Oil Prices | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-08

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(9/8/22) Markets rallied off important support on Wednesday, but failed at the 50- and 100-DMA's. However, the market did sustain the rising trend line, with sell signals still in place. This may get us to a point where markets can consolidate to provide another buying opportunity. Markets also held support at May's lows. Today's ECB rate hike announcement and the Fed's policy comments later today will affect markets--we're expecting a 75bp Fed...

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The Fed’s Currency Swap Line

2022-09-08

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(9/8/22) Markets continue through a holiday-shortened week; use any rally to reduce portfolio risk; the Fed is not backing-off its hawkish stance, but markets are holding support...so far. The Fed's hawkish talk of 75bp, with more to come, targeting the 4% range. The ECB is dealing with the same issues as the Fed, plus much higher energy costs. Dealing with the feedback-loop of central bank moves; why dollar strength is a problem for the EU; all...

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