Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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When Will Markets’ Stampede End? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-07

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(9/7/22) Markets always operate in either a buying- or selling-stampede, where prices rise incessantly for a period, and then seem to be in a sell-off mode forever; investors are always asking, 'when will it stop?' Example: The July lows that led to the August highs. The current selling stampede has been running for 13-days. To keep this in perspective, we're still above July's lows...there is a risk of re-testing those lows, certainly, given where...

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Should You Jump Into an EV?

2022-09-07

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(9/7/22) September markets are underway with buying and selling stampedes; use any rally to reduce risk. If you're worrying too much about your portfolio, you're holding too much risk! Looking forward, earnings expectations are still too elevated, and valuations have to come down. A side-by-side look at the ISM vs S&P PMI; geopolitical decisions affect markets. Europe is imploding over high energy costs (thanks, Vladimir!) As the US exports...

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Markets Rally Despite OPEC Production Cuts | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-06

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(9/6/22) Markets are set to open higher after last week's sell-off, under pressure from Fed head Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole speech, suggesting more rate hikes, more aggressively, are still to come. Markets tried to challenge that, until Russia threw a wrench into the works, announcing a cut off of natural gas to Europe. This morning's futures are looking higher, seeking a bit of a rally as markets remain over-sold. Continue to use these...

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What’s the Half-life of a Biden Fist-bump?

2022-09-06

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(9/6/22) The best thing about this week may be that it's only four-days long! Liz Truss is the new UK PM, already embattled; the death of BBY CEO; OPEC's production cut & the half-life of a Biden fist-bump; Russia's weaponization of natural gas to Europe; Europe's response to inflation: Do the same things again that caused it; the move from capitalism to more socialistic practices; market valuations and the shift from GAP to Forward Operating...

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Will Your Social Security Benefits be Tax-Free by 2023?

2022-09-02

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In the kind of market where bad news is good news, where do we go from here? The dark side of not allowing business cycle to complete: Recession = Bad; so the market has outrun the economy. Why the Medicare Advantage TV ads have disappeared;

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It Was a Bear Market Rally, After All | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-01

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(9/1/22) Cheerleaders singing the praises of a bear market bottom, bullishness abounding, and high prices for equities were back...were wrong. Turns out it was a bear market rally, after an assault on the 200-DMA failed.

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Will the Fed Start to Pay More Attention to Employment Numbers?

2022-09-01

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(9/1/22) What would happen if markets break through the 50-DMA? We're treating any market rally as an opportunity to sell and reduce equity risk; parsing Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole comments; bringing pain to households and businesses, and the beginning of the Price-Wage spiral; will the Fed start to pay more attention to employment numbers?

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Markets Break 50-DMA | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-31

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(8/31/22) Tuesday's Jolt Report showing stronger employment jerked markets to attention with the suggestion the Fed may become even more aggressive in its tightening strategy. However, a closer look at the employment scene reveals labor force participation rates are nothing to crow about.

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What CEO Confidence is Saying

2022-08-31

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(8/31/22) Considering the Fed's Quantitative Tightening and what CEOs' confidence is saying about the economy; confidence on the wane as the economy weakens (which is the intent of the Fed); dire predictions of a "whopper" recession in 2023; why isn't the Fed looking at M-2?

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Will a Hold at the 50-DMA Level Continue? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-30

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(8/30/22) With markets in an over-sold on multiple levels, a rally was due, and markets did on Monday test the 50-DMA and bounced, almost rallying to break-even, before slipping back to the close. Markets actually posted a "green candle" for the day. Tuesday morning futures are pointing higher, as a prelude to an attempt at a bounce, with the potential to get back up to the 20-DMA. We will likely see a rally that is sold-into. A rally to...

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Why Bitcoin & NFT Trading Has Crashed

2022-08-30

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(8/30/22) Markets are on sell-signals, so use any rally to sell-into and raise cash, rebalance portfolio risk; the impact on credit spreads by rising interest rates will reverberate through the economy. We are likely not through the corrective period. 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck--down from 61%! Is the pain worth the fight on inflation? why investing doesn't work as advertised. America exports inflation and imports deflation; what...

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Dow Dumps in Response to Powell | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-29

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Markets sold off on Friday as the Fed withheld an expected pivot in policy, and actually suggested remaining more aggressive in addressing inflation. Jerome Powell also specifically stated such action would lead to slower economic growth and job losses--a necessary evil in the fight to curb the rate of inflation.

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Jackson Hole Failure (8/29/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment S…

2022-08-29

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#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice

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Will Jerome Powell Disappoint Today?

2022-08-27

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(8/26/22) Does everything hinge around Jackson Hole? Will Jerome Powell disappoint the hawks? the impact of energy prices on inflation; California's EV gambit; how the drought will impact food prices & inflation. How the Inflation Reduction Act will cap prescription drug prices--eliminating the Medicare donut hole; Drug Holidays, the Anxiety in Retirement Planning; Medicare Confusion; A Dr Pepper a Day, and putting coke back into Coke; How to...

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All Eyes on Jackson Hole | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-25

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All eyes are on Jackson Hole, WY, as global leaders converge on the financial symposium to plot the future of the world (!) Market pundits have been talking about a Fed "pivot" in policy since July, as reports emerged indicating inflation might have peaked; but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic this morning commented that inflation may remain more persistent than expected, which could induce the Fed to continue hiking rates for longer than...

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The Price-Wage Spiral

2022-08-25

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The Jackson Hole Symposium launches today; Is the Fed going to pivot? NVIDIA forecasting lower earnings; the good news/bad news about student loan forgiveness and the problem with "free" money; Cracker Barrel's veggie sausage; challenges for the Jackson Hole in the wall gang: Transitioning to a new, lasting reality w Inflation and the price-wage spiral;

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Jackson Hole Preview Episode (8/25/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Inve…

2022-08-25

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#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice

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Targeting 4,000 to 4,160 as We Head Into Jackson Hole | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-24

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As predicted, markets finished lower on Tuesday, violating the 20-DMA and setting up markets for a moderate rebound today. 4,160 will be the new resistance level. If sell-signals remain in place through the end of the week, that will suggest more weakness in markets, and more downward pressure on prices.

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Scary Consequences of Student Loan Forgiveness

2022-08-24

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Markets have a laser-focus on upcoming Jackson Hole conference; is the Fed going to get more aggressive in dealing with inflation? Expectations for a more persistent level of inflation The Housing market is in the early stages of recession.

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Markets Slicing Through Support Levels | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-23

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(8/23/22) Friday's market sell-off is followed by mayhem on Monday, with the worst day of performance since the market found its bottom back in July. Markets sliced clean through levels of support yesterday and this morning are poised for a mild opening; we don't think it will be able to stick, however, as the 20-DMA is retested. Will Markets follow the trendline established for the past 20-weeks? The 100-DMA of 4080 is likely a more logical level...

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