Category Archive: 6b.) Acting Man

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Fed Credit and the US Money Supply – The Liquidity Drain Accelerates

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

Fed credit in 2017 (blue bars) vs. 2018 (red bars)
Federal Reserve Credit Contracts Further. We last wrote in July about the beginning contraction in outstanding Fed credit, repatriation inflows, reverse repos, and commercial and industrial lending growth, and how the interplay between these drivers has affected the growth rate of the true broad US money supply TMS-2 (the details can be seen here: “The Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious” and “A Scramble for Capital”).

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In Gold We Trust – Incrementum Chart Book 2018

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

Central Bank Policies Turn, 2003 - 2019
Our friends from Incrementum (a European asset management company) have just released the annual “In Gold We Trust” chart book, which collects a wealth of statistics and charts relevant to gold, with extensive annotations. Many of these charts cannot be found anywhere else.

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How Dangerous is the Month of October?

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

The largest one-day declines in the DJIA in history
A Month with a Bad Reputation. A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.

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Switzerland, Model of Freedom & Wealth Moving East – Interviews with Claudio Grass

2018-10-07

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2018-10-07

Last month our friend Claudio Grass, roving Mises Institute Ambassador and a Switzerland-based investment advisor specializing in precious metals, was interviewed by Sarah Westall for her Business Game Changers channel.

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US Equities – Approaching an Inflection Point

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

DJIA vs. NDX vs. NYA
A Lengthy Non-Confirmation. As we have frequently pointed out in recent months, since beginning to rise from the lows of the sharp but brief downturn after the late January blow-off high, the US stock market is bereft of uniformity. Instead, an uncommonly lengthy non-confirmation between the the strongest indexes and the broad market has been established.

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A Fake Brexit and the “Noble Dream” – Claudio Grass Speaks With Godfrey Bloom

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

Introductory Remarks: The “Anti-Politician” Godfrey Bloom, by PT Most of our readers will probably remember former UKIP chief whip and European Parliament representative Godfrey Bloom. As far as we know, he is the only politician who ever raised the issue of the workings of the fractionally reserved central bank-directed monetary system in the EU parliament. This system is of course central to the phenomenon of the recurring boom-bust sequences...

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Wall Street – Island of the Blessed

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

Which Disturbance in the Farce can be Profitably Ignored Today? There has been some talk about submerging market turmoil recently and the term “contagion” has seen an unexpected revival in popularity – on Friday that is, which is an eternity ago. As we have pointed out previously, the action is no longer in line with the “synchronized global expansion” narrative, which means with respect to Wall Street that it is best ignored.

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Gold Sector – An Obscure Indicator Provides a Signal

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

The Goldminbi. In recent weeks gold apparently decided it would be a good time to masquerade as an emerging market currency and it started mirroring the Chinese yuan of all things. Since the latter is non-convertible this almost feels like an insult of sorts. As an aside to this, bitcoin seems to be frantically searching for a new position somewhere between the South African rand the Turkish lira.

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An Inquiry into Austrian Investing: Profits, Protection and Pitfalls

2018-08-11

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2018-08-11

Kevin-Duffy
“From a marketing perspective it pays to be overconfident, especially in the short term. The higher your conviction the easier it will be to market your investment ideas. I think the Austrian School is at a disadvantage here because it’s more difficult to be confident about your qualitative predictions and even in terms of investment advice it is particularly difficult to be confident in these times because we don’t really have any historical...

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A Scramble for Capital

2018-07-26

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2018-07-26

TMS-2 vs. C&I loans
A Spike in Bank Lending to Corporations – Sign of a Dying Boom? As we have mentioned on several occasions in these pages, when a boom nears its end, one often sees a sudden scramble for capital. This happens when investors and companies that have invested in large-scale long-term projects in the higher stages of the production structure suddenly realize that capital may not be as plentiful as they have previously assumed.

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Getting Their Pound of Flesh – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-07-21

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2018-07-21

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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US Money Supply and Fed Credit – the Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious

2018-07-18

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2018-07-18

Our good friend Michael Pollaro, who keeps a close eye on global “Austrian” money supply measures and their components, has recently provided us with a very interesting update concerning two particular drivers of money supply growth. But first, here is a chart of our latest update of the y/y growth rate of the US broad true money supply aggregate TMS-2 until the end of June 2018 with a 12-month moving average.

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The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture

2018-07-11

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2018-07-11

Technical Divergence Successfully Maintained. In an update on gold and gold stocks in mid June, we pointed out that a number of interesting divergences had emerged which traditionally represent a heads-up indicating a trend change is close (see: Divergences Emerge for the details). We did so after a big down day in the gold price, which actually helped set up the bullish divergence; this may have felt counter-intuitive, but these set-ups always do....

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Gold – Macroeconomic Fundamentals Improve

2018-07-10

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2018-07-10

A Beginning Shift in Gold Fundamentals. A previously outright bearish fundamental backdrop for gold has recently become slightly more favorable. Ironically, the arrival of this somewhat more favorable situation was greeted by a pullback in physical demand and a decline in the gold price, after both had defied bearish fundamentals for many months by remaining stubbornly firm.

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Black Holes for Capital – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-07-07

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2018-07-07

Yuan and Ruble
Race to the Bottom, Last week the price of gold fell $17, and that of silver $0.30. Why? We can tell you about the fundamentals. We can show charts of the basis. But we can’t get into the heads of the sellers. We can say that in the mainstream view, the dollar is rising. The dollar, in their view, is not measured in gold but in rupees in yuan and rubles. You know, all the superior forms of money…

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Merger Mania and the Kings of Debt

2018-06-24

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2018-06-24

Corporate Debt
Another Early Warning Siren Goes Off. Our friend Jonathan Tepper of research house Variant Perception (check out their blog to see some of their excellent work) recently pointed out to us that the volume of mergers and acquisitions has increased rather noticeably lately. Some color on this was provided in an article published by Reuters in late May, “Global M&A hits record $2 trillion in the year to date”, which inter alia contained the following...

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The Fed’s “Inflation Target” is Impoverishing American Workers

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Redefined Terms and Absurd Targets. At one time, the Federal Reserve’s sole mandate was to maintain stable prices and to “fight inflation.”  To the Fed, the financial press, and most everyone else “inflation” means rising prices instead of its original and true definition as an increase in the money supply.  Rising prices are a consequence – a very painful consequence – of money printing.

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Gold Divergences Emerge

2018-06-18

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2018-06-18

Gold divergences 2017-2018
Bad Hair Day Produces Positive Divergences. On Friday the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China was apparently escalated by a notch to the next level, at least verbally. The Trump administration announced a list of tariffs that are supposed to come into force in three week’s time and China clicked back by announcing retaliatory action. In effect, the US government said: take that China, we will now really hurt our own consumers!  – and...

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Dimitri Speck über Türkei, Italien, EU und Euro

2018-06-11

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https://www.responsa-liberta.de/ Die aktuelle Lage rund um Italien, EU und Euro – während der Fokus derzeit vor allem auf der aktuellen Regierungsbildung in Italien liegt, führt Dimitri Speck (Seasonax / Tool für Saisonale Statistiken) im folgenden Interview aus, welche Folgen er beispielsweise für die türkische Lira aufgrund der Zinserhöhungen und aktuellen Dollarstärke für möglich hält. Auch …

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Is Political Decentralization the Only Hope for Western Civilization?

2018-05-25

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2018-05-25

Fracture lines
A couple of recent articles have once more made the case, at least implicitly, for political decentralization as the only viable path which will begin to solve the seemingly insurmountable political, economic, and social crises which the Western world now faces.

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